Originally Posted by Scav

Agree...for me though, he is a singleton, maybe a saver with Invasor but Bern is getting singled in the pick six if I get a ticket into the $180 range and auto single in the pick four....OB/ALL/ALL/Bern is what I am considering

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

i always find that so interesting every year seeing how people approach the same bets :) == but isn't OB racing at the start of the pick 6 and not the start of the pick 4? the mile should start the p4, so i'm planning on going short in the distaff and the turf, with 3-4 runners in each, and going deep in the classic and mile.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I find it interesting that even though Invasor and Bernardini haven't faced each other, all three of Invasor's American races this year were run at the same track and distance as a race Bernardini ran in. Here are the time comparisons:

Dist Track Invasor Bernardini
9f Saratoga 1:49.0 1:50.2
9.5f Pimlico 1:54.2 1:54.3
10f Belmont 2:01.1 2:01.0

Obviously the track at Saratoga was sloppy (although sealed) for the Jim Dandy so that probably accounts for the difference at 9 furlongs but otherwise they are dead even on raw time. The Beyer's all favored Bernardini but many of these races were single race variants so aren't very significant. I don't think there will be too much seperating Invasor and Bernardini other than their odds on BC Day. I'll be cashing my tickets on the Invincible Invasor.

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Let's not forget that Bernardini will be carrying the same weight he carried in the JCGC and 4 lbs LESS than he carried in the Travers. Invasor will be carrying 6 and 8 lbs MORE than he carried in his last 2 races.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I still wonder if Ghostzapper would have dusted that field if there wasn't the "agreement" with the Roses in May connections on pace.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Last time I paid too much attention to weight I convinced myself that Magnum was going to beat Lava Man in the Goodwood. We saw how that turned out.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I made the same mistake.

Originally Posted by Scav

they went 47 in that race, awful quick for 10 panels....

Originally Posted by Scav

Keep on quotes Beyers and see where that will get you.

Invasor is about a length slower then Bern if they run their tops. While they are both lightly races, Invasor has gotten more time off in between his starts and has room to improve....

Originally Posted by philcski

I actually have Invasor a length faster on my figures, paired 125's vs. paired 124's (beyer equivalents of about 117 and 116.)

I'm pretty confident in them being solid figures, the runbacks have borne them out well- for example, Premium Tap got a 118 for his Whitney (beaten 7 lengths) and paired that in the Woodward. (Note that as trips are extremely important in determining the figure a horse earns i usually check the figures on runbacks where no trouble was encountered, such as PT's Woodward.)

That being said 1 length is nothing and racing luck can ruin either advantage. They'll both be A's on my tickets with very little backups. I also see this as similar to '04 with GZ but with TWO standouts... there's a ton of upset possiblities in the other races to make some huge pick-payoffs, like '04.

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I also consider Jara a negative compared to Castellano. Jara is very good, but he has not been in many of these extremely high pressure races. Plus, I have to give Bernardini a nudge in the figures for the stranglehold Castellano has had on him near the wire. When I put it all together, I have Bernardini about 4 times more likely to win the race than Invasor.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I think the Belmont showed the guy can hold it together. We've had more than a couple jocks, even long timers, get to the Belmont Stakes and royally choke even if they weren't going for the Crown. Sure his horse wasn't a TC contender but he knows darn well when it's too early to move at Belmont in a mile and a half race--kind of an indication of patience and a cool head really. He also knows about high pressure mile and a quarter races at Churchill. He'll have another dirt mount that day won't he? I would figure it'd help you get your head on straight if you were nervous but whatever. I think he's got a good head on his shoulders even if I have no idea what he's saying in post-race interviews.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I like Jara and am a big Jazil fan but I think a monkey could have ridden Jazil, who runs between 24 and 25 seconds every two furlongs regardless of the length of the race, to victory in the Belmont.

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

right. you're ridiculous. if a monkey rode jazil, they would have ended up with the trip steppenwolfer had.

sorry, jara was brilliant that day when a vet absolutely ****ed steppenwolfers race.....ill take the smart jockey over the veteran idiot any day

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I would be fine backing this assessment if steppenwolfer had actually WON a significant race before or after the belmont.

Face it- the horse is a plodder and the trip really had very little significance in the result.

As for Jazil, i commend Jara's patience on belmont day, but he had the best horse plain and simple. There was no brilliance to the ride.

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I would be fine backing this assessment if steppenwolfer had actually WON a significant race before or after the belmont.

Face it- the horse is a plodder and the trip really had very little significance in the result.

As for Jazil, i commend Jara's patience on belmont day, but he had the best horse plain and simple. There was no brilliance to the ride.