Favorites have actually done well in the Cup. In the 30% range.

Right now, in my initial stages, I'm going to try and beat these favorites:

Fleet Indian
Ouija Board (she still might take my action)
Gorella (who might not be the favorite...)

Lets see how the speed is holding in the races early in the week. Surly this should influnce most of the cappers. Finding the winner, Not finding the best odds is what we are trying to do. I do like to get the best payout but a loser gets none . Some of my biggest mistakes are a result of letting the odds influence me.

Would you take horse with a 50% chance at 1-5 over a horse with a 20% chance at 20-1?

I have no problem having the "loser" in a race. When I hit, however I want to get paid. Getting paid could be 8-5 or 60-1 depending on what I feel are the true odds for that horse in the race. As in the example Travis states just before this post, the 50% player will cash 2.5 times the number of tickets as the other guy, but at the end of the day, month, year, etc he will be a loser and the other guy will make money. It all depends on what you are looking for.