Agree about Danzig Moon. 30-1 ML, and have a feeling he'll go off lower that that. I don't get the love for him at all. He should be in the Pat Day Mile race, instead. I don't trust his trainer in major Grade 1 races in the U.S, either.

I do not believe there is a true "Wise Guy" horse in this Derby. This is a deep field and the winner of the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, and Wood are 15 to 1 and above. The speed figures of the top runners are pretty close . If there is a wise guy horse it is Danzig Moon but that is to hit the board which could happen.

I am still trying to figure out how this pace scenario is going to play out. Will AP go straight to the lead and not have enough stamina to hold on? Does AP have enough foundation to win this race? 10 furlongs with 20 runners is a demanding test. Is 2 easy preps against sub par Arkansas races enough? I will include him on my pick 4's but I am skeptical about him. He has never been tested in a race by serious racehorses.

I have a friend who likes him a lot. I just dont get it at all. You can make a case for almost anyone else, I dont get him. I would use the 2nd place horse from the Wood before Danzig Moon.:(

That horse will out run his odds and is a use as well. I don't get Materality at all. If there is a front end meltdown, he's the first causality, now that Stanford is out.

I think down the road he has a chance to be good, but this is asking a lot. 4th career start, bad draw and a front end style with lots of other speed. I agree, he's a toss for me.

Materiality breaking from post 3 could be the key horse in the Derby. A good break and up around the front could be a real early thorn in the side for American Pharoah. That is assuming AP cleard from post 17 and is up near the lead.

Or the 3rd place horse from the Wood.

Not sure what race he should be in but basically agree with this.

Easy toss for me too.