Derby Trail Forums - Analyzing The Preakness

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 928959)

I understand that. My point about the Beyer figure was simply that the final time was so slow (the slowest final Preakness time in 50 year), that you would expect the Beyer to be really slow, unless Beyer felt that the track was really slow, which he obviously did.

Pimlico is obviously a much slower track than many other tracks. There is no debate about that. A horse like Zee Bros runs 1:08 and change at Santa Anita. At Pimlico, he doesn't break 1:10. We know that Pimlico is a slow track. I'm not comparing Pimlico to other tracks. I'm comparing the Preakness this year to other years. We know the track was slower yesterday than some past years but how much slower? Was the track slower than last year? Maybe, but if it was I don't think it was by much, maybe a couple of ticks. I think the pace was slow yesterday, but I think the best horse still won. If Goldencents would have gunned out there in :47 3/5, I think Stevens would have stalked (3-5 lengths back) and I think Oxbow still wins.

No runup at 6F at Pimlico. You routinely see horses ship in from Parx, etc with :22 first quarters run :24 or worse. There's literally 5 feet of runup. Compare that to Churchill, which is damn near a 6.25F race when you factor in the runup.

The 45.16 half he set yesterday is maybe the fastest I've ever seen there. I'd have to think with as slow as the track was yesterday that would be a +30... and he still won relatively easily. He's a serious sprinter.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 929008)

Orb will have a good look for redemption in 3 weeks. There's a lot of speed signed on for the Belmont and with Oxbow earning respect, you know the pace will be contested in that race. Orb will be home, and he will get plenty of pace and distance. I expect Rosario to be true to Orb's style in that race.

I like this.

Thanks for sharing your analysis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 928972)

Let Em Shine is like the Precious Passion of sprinters!

CJ does Pimlico. I will find out. He only E-mailed me the Preakness fig yesterday.

I have the race as 90-91-82. The 10th race, also at 6f, was 85-82-84.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 929034)

I have the race as 90-91-82. The 10th race, also at 6f, was 85-82-84.

CJ,

Can you recap how the current figures relate to maybe what pars would be. A good Grade 1/2 sprinter on the front end, I think 90 ish is pretty solid, anything close to 100 would be blazing? On the other end of the scales anything around 80 would be considered well below par of that type of animal?

A 90 is around par for older, G1 males. Keep in mind that is at the finish. Also, a 90 at 1/4 mile in a 6f race is running faster than a 90 at 1/4 mile in a 7f race, and even faster than a 90 at 1/4 mile in a 9f race.

The pace figures are meant to relate how the fractions compare to the final time, not so much for comparing who is faster on different surfaces and at different distances. I have different tools for that. Of course on the same surface/distance, they can certainly be used as a means of comparison.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 929044)

I just noticed that your location is Moore, OK. I really hope you and your family are ok.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 929089)

I just noticed that your location is Moore, OK. I really hope you and your family are ok.

My prayers go out to Moore, hoping all is well ....terrible devastation.

Billy

TG gave Friday a dead rail for Pimlico, and I'm guessing they will also do that for Saturday. I thought you wanted to be in the 4-5 path on the dirt, and on the lead or close on the lawn.