Derby Trail Forums - 3/30 (GP): FL Derby (G1), GP Oaks (G2), 5 undercard stakes

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 921228)

Well, she did beat Emollient with a trip first out and she did come close to beating My Happy Face, who was beaten a head by Dreaming of Julia.

Forgetting about today's result.....watch her debut. Emollient ran much better than she did that day. Only early trouble and a horrendous ride kept her from winning.

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 921507)

I would think when they get thru doing the math and mad science the fig for Orb will be 9 to 11 pts lower then the Pletcherized Filly.. You think the Orb race is a 97 and 114 for the filly? No chance

Why not 97 and 114? The filly finished over 21 lengths ahead of the rest of the field. A 114 for the winner would put the 2nd place filly's BSF in the 80's, which hardly seems too high.

--Dunbar

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 921507)

I would think when they get thru doing the math and mad science the fig for Orb will be 9 to 11 pts lower then the Pletcherized Filly.. You think the Orb race is a 97 and 114 for the filly? No chance

It's already up Freddy. 114 for Dreaming of Julia and 97 for Orb. Cigar Street and Cio Bella each with 104.

It's possible that those figs might be a touch on the high side...but I was horrendously wrong about Orb.

If he ran a 97 today, he did it without much setup. His 97 last time out was with the setup of a lifetime and I think he was in light at 116lbs as well.

He got absolutely no such help today...and if you believe he repeated that figure, Orb really took a monster step up today imo.

The two speeds, Merit Man from post 9 (29/1 and should have been 290/1) and Narveaz from extreme outside post 10 (103/1 and should been 1,003/1) -- they hung around to finish 3rd and 4th. Had Shangei Bobby not been strangled into submission and so rank, those 3rd and 4th place finishers would have been toast.

The real disappointment was It'smyluckyday... that was as big a clunker as when he laid an egg at Delta Downs in the Delta Jackpot with no apparent excuse.

Still, even though Orb had no help at all today, his believers needed a faster time.

In 2008: Big Brown won the FLA Derby from the 12-hole in 1:48.16 -- She's All Eltish took the Oaks by 7 lengths one race earlier in 1:51.80

On that day, the Derby went 3.64 seconds faster, on this day, the Oaks went 1.90 seconds faster.

The real news this day was the Rachel Alexandra like performance of Dreaming of Julia at Pletcher's Playground. She had the speed of Dream Rush, and the staying power of A. P. Indy on this day.

Beautiful run by Orb!

Mike Welsch‏@DRFWelsch23h

Trainer Ian Wilkes reports that Capt. Candyman Can, who gave him his 1st G1 win, will be retired but will return as a stable pony.