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-   -   Wagering Strategy for Breeders Cup (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48885)

MaTH716 10-25-2012 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 898357)
Don't have much of a bankroll, so probably will just be playing the last 4 races on Saturday unless, of course, I succumb to temptation which is fairly likely. This was my plan last year and it quickly went to hell in a handbag.

Why wait? Try to find the race/sequance that you feel like you have the best opinion in and hopefully you hit.

cal828 10-25-2012 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 898365)
Why wait? Try to find the race/sequance that you feel like you have the best opinion in and hopefully you hit.

I think that the races on Saturday will be more formful and I will be more familiar with the horses in the races that I mentioned and therefore, those are the races in which I may have the best opinion. I will probably scan the other races, but unless I see something glaring, I think I will confine may play to Saturday, but who knows, I am probably lying to myself. Hard to stay on the sidelines.

santana 10-25-2012 09:45 PM

Looks like a pretty playable pik 6 and pik 4 this year. AND IF I AM ALIVE EITHER ...WHICH I PROBABLY WONT BE ...LOL...dude is a single on the end...

goodcopy 10-25-2012 10:36 PM

Early Stab @ Small Late pick 4/Spread Late Pick 4
 
Small Late Pick 4
Race#9= POINT OF ENTRY/ST NICHOLAS ABBEY/THE FUGUE/TRAILBLAZER
Race#10=AMAZOMBIE/EMCEE/FAST BULLET
Race#11=EXCELEBRATION/WISE DAN
Race#12=GAME ON DUDE/
@.50 per=$12.00
Late Spread Pick 4
Race#9= POINT OF ENTRY/ST NICHOLAS ABBEY/THE FUGUE/TRAILBLAZER/TREASURE BEACH/SHARETA/LITTLE MIKE/DULLAHAN/
Race#10=AMAZOMBIE/EMCEE/FAST BULLET/TRINNIBERG/THE LUMBER GUY/SUM OF THE PARTS/SECOND CITY/COIL
Race#11=EXCELEBRATION/WISE DAN/WILLCOX INN/TURBO COMPRESSOR/TRAILBLAZER/OBVIOUSLY/MOONLIGHT CLOUD/LITTLE MIKE
Race#12=GAME ON DUDE/RON THE GREEK/FORT LARNED

@$.50per=$762.00 for all combos(Not the way you would play a "Spead Ticket I.E."TicketMaker" by Daily Racingform):tro::eek::zz:

RockHardTen1985 10-25-2012 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goodcopy (Post 898441)
Small Late Pick 4
Race#9= POINT OF ENTRY/ST NICHOLAS ABBEY/THE FUGUE/TRAILBLAZER
Race#10=AMAZOMBIE/EMCEE/FAST BULLET
Race#11=EXCELEBRATION/WISE DAN
Race#12=GAME ON DUDE/
@.50 per=$12.00
Late Spread Pick 4
Race#9= POINT OF ENTRY/ST NICHOLAS ABBEY/THE FUGUE/TRAILBLAZER/TREASURE BEACH/SHARETA/LITTLE MIKE/DULLAHAN/
Race#10=AMAZOMBIE/EMCEE/FAST BULLET/TRINNIBERG/THE LUMBER GUY/SUM OF THE PARTS/SECOND CITY/COIL
Race#11=EXCELEBRATION/WISE DAN/WILLCOX INN/TURBO COMPRESSOR/TRAILBLAZER/OBVIOUSLY/MOONLIGHT CLOUD/LITTLE MIKE
Race#12=GAME ON DUDE/RON THE GREEK/FORT LARNED

@$.50per=$762.00 for all combos(Not the way you would play a "Spead Ticket I.E."TicketMaker" by Daily Racingform):tro::eek::zz:

Dullahan has no shot to win any race that he is entered in. Same w/ Little Mike. Triniberg? Another toss for me. Treasure Beach, another toss.
That saves you a few bucks.

Port Conway Lane 10-25-2012 11:19 PM

Treasure Beach/little Mike/dullahan/
Trinniberg/
All/
All

RockHardTen1985 10-25-2012 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 898444)
Treasure Beach/little Mike/dullahan/
Trinniberg/
All/
All

Ill donate $100 to any charity of your choice if any of those horses run even 1-2.

Port Conway Lane 10-25-2012 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 898445)
Ill donate $100 to any charity of your choice if any of those horses run even 1-2.

Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund
www.pdjf.org

RockHardTen1985 10-26-2012 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 898446)
Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund
www.pdjf.org

Deal.

pmayjr 10-26-2012 12:49 AM

I did pretty well last year with a limited bankroll (like $300). I was putting $10 and $20 WP bets on longshots, playing $2 exacta boxes with 3-4 horses depending on the race. And played a few trifectas in deep races where I thought I could get ambitious. Turned $300 into $900 by the end of the weekend. Hitting Wrote and Drosslemeyer win bets had a lot to do with it. I didn't hit any of my homerun bets, but the wins were still healthy.

I've never been much of a pick3/pick4 player, and won't be on BC Weekend. The BC Mile result just shows how that can go in the tank so fast.

RockHardTen1985 10-26-2012 06:00 AM

My plan is to get up to the racino around 11am. Crush Aqueduct and have an even better bankroll for the Cup races.
3-3-3 $1 pick 3's. 2-2 $5-10$ doubles pressing the horses I like most in the pick 3's. Thats my plan.
Anyone going up to Saratoga can hang with yours truly.

Danzig 10-26-2012 06:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 898445)
Ill donate $100 to any charity of your choice if any of those horses run even 1-2.

and a man of his word will certainly not fail to do so if the money comes due.

:rolleyes:

RockHardTen1985 10-26-2012 06:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 898467)
and a man of his word will certainly not fail to do so if the money comes due.

:rolleyes:


This is different. Ill tell you what, since you have always had issue with me.....Ill send you the money if any of those horses run 1-2.

Danzig 10-26-2012 06:57 AM

...

tanner12oz 10-26-2012 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 898247)
These are the best two days to cast your nets wider than usual and hope to catch the big one.

^^^^^THIS

seriously 100 picks 3's 500 pick 4's....take the shot...its cup day =) money there for the taking but ya gotta spread because its always a challenging card

tanner12oz 10-26-2012 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard (Post 898272)
I agree. Excessive spreading means you should pass on the bet. Try a quick pick instead.

spreading is the only way to score the $100 horses on top...seriously whose betting those as there "top selection"??

tanner12oz 10-26-2012 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 898461)
My plan is to get up to the racino around 11am. Crush Aqueduct and have an even better bankroll for the Cup races.
3-3-3 $1 pick 3's. 2-2 $5-10$ doubles pressing the horses I like most in the pick 3's. Thats my plan.
Anyone going up to Saratoga can hang with yours truly.

lol this plan never works...cant tell you how many times i have gotten crushed the day before a triple crown race because i was "padding the roll for tomorrow"

casp0555 10-26-2012 11:36 AM

I heard this strategy on Talkin' Horses one day, I believe it was Dave Litfin that said "Bet small, Win Big!!" which was countered by Andy "Bet Big, Win Huge!!". I could try these simple suggestions but problem is.....I dont ever win :( I think I will stick with flippin' a coin :D

Dahoss 10-26-2012 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz (Post 898489)
spreading is the only way to score the $100 horses on top...seriously whose betting those as there "top selection"??

People who bet their top selection to win? If you like a horse, who cares how high the odds are?

Indian Charlie 10-26-2012 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 898524)
People who bet their top selection to win? If you like a horse, who cares how high the odds are?

There is a common perception among horseplayers that if a horse they like is too high in odds, something must be wrong with it.

That whole dead on the board thing.

I stopped doing that the first (and only) time I talked myself off a $50 winner.


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