My last two derby picks, one thrown over the fence and came all the way back for 6th, the other broke something in the race and never ran again. I will not make a strong opinion anywhere before the draw this year lest my horse pull the 1 again.

I'll use the same disclaimers that most people have cited such as: weather, workouts, pp draw, etc..............but I am leaning towards these 4 for the win bet:

Creative Cause
I'll Have Another
Daddy Nose Best
Gemologist

(Bubble Horses)
Union Rags
Dullahan
Rousing Sermon (ridiculous I know, just think there's upside potential)

Nothing shocking here but I believe the Pick 3's, Pick 4's, Oaks/Derby Double and Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3 is where I'll be spending my time rather than the vertical wagers in the Derby.

For the past five derby winners the derby was third off a layoff. This seems to be a rather strong recent trend. As a result, I'm considering narrowing my analysis to the following horses (same draw, workout, etc disclaimer as everyone else) for the win position and multis:

Union Rags
Dullahan
Gemologist
Sabercat
Daddy Nose Best
Trinniberg
Done Talking

From this list Trinniberg and Done Talking just don't seem to fit - however both will have incredible value.

I'm hoping the value is still there with Daddy Nose Best. His progression as a 3 year old and more likely when switching to dirt, along with his strong foundation and running style make him my early pick.

The only tosses so far are Daddy Long Legs, Alpha and Prospective.

Using: Union Rags, El Padrino, Daddy Nose Best

Tossing: Daddy Long Legs, Dullahan, Hansen, Creative Cause, Rousing Sermon, Trinniberg, Alpha, Take Charge Indy

All others are TBD

Using - Gemologist, Alpha, Went The Day Well

Not Using - Creative Cause, Liaison, Mark Valeski

Maybe - All Others

Darn it, I wanted to ask who had the best placing from the #1 recently.

(Go Jazil Go! :D )

Of course not.

If that happens I'll just move this one to the angels thread.

I mean duh. :p

I'm probably using him too.

edit -

At this point I like...

Liaison
Rousing Sermon
Gemologist
Hansen
Union Rags

(No not using all but those are the ones I'm liking).

Pondering...

Went the Day Well
Daddy Nose Best

:tro::D

Using: Union Rags & Dullahan

Pitching: Pletcher, Baffert, and Hansen (bigtime)

I like Andrew Luck to the Colts

Using, Union Rags and Daddy Nose Best

Tossing, Trinniberg (of course) Optimizer (if in) Daddy Long Legs, Creative Cause (hard to believe Harrington can get a horse to peak at 1 1/4 miles.)

Also, those of us who like DNB who think he'll be 20 or 25-1 are deluding ourselves, he's got wiseguy horse written all over him. I predict he goes off at 12-1 or less.

Can a horse who has shown early speed (Trinniberg) in the past, be dropped way back early and make one giant run the last 3-4 furloungs?

Everyone is expecting trinniberg to be sent early and die at the quarter pole, especially with other front runners in the field. Why wouldnt the trainer change tactics with him? The trainer is underrated and has done well with few horses he has had in his stable in the past.

have you seen what front runners do when you try to hold them up early?

early speed is that horses strong suit, his one talent, why would you take that one trick out of his bag? best to let him do his thing and hope for the best.

a jock will not win a battle of wills with a horse who wants to go. all that ends up if the jock tries that is a horse who is unhappy and perhaps using his strength to fight the jock rather than in his running.