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Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 838055)

I'm guessing 69 instead of 89, just a typo when entering the number. Surely they have things like you mention automated by now.

You're right. It wouldn't add up if they used 8.5f.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 838055)

I'm guessing 69 instead of 89, just a typo when entering the number. Surely they have things like you mention automated by now.

Exactly right....69. Typo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 837987)

This Beyer should come back sensational for Bodemeister. It's got a very good shot to be as high as a 105.

Three dirt routes at SA Today:

*Bodemeister wins by 9+ lengths over two of the most hyped up maidens of the meet by the press and on HRTV in race #3. 1:34.45

* All My Chips wins by 4+ lengths with a dream trip in a race where the Beyer par is a 78. All My Chips won with a 73 Beyer last out. 1:44.16 for 8.5 furlongs. The time is like 32 Beyer points slower than Bodemeister's race 30 minutes earlier.

* Tizpat wins at 12/1 in 1:38.52 -- it would be pretty hard to keep this race under a 60. The time is like 42 Beyer points slower than Bodemesiter's race.

Bodemesiter only ran an 82 Beyer in his career debut in Jan...but that was at 5.5 furlongs. The Empire Maker on the top and the A P. Indy/Roberto up close on the bottom combined with the easy loose early lead went a long way in explaining the explosion.

Only a 99 for the Bodemeister race with all of those mega hyped 2nd time starters.

The horse who won the next race went backwards 7 points off his last figure despite a perfect trip win at 5/1 odds.

The 12/1 third-time starter who won the days other route barely improved at all and the 2nd place went backwards significantly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 838166)

Only a 99 for the Bodemeister race with all of those mega hyped 2nd time starters.

I tend to think 99 is too low as well.

Uncorks 2 more today at SA-

Paynter in the 5th and Mambo Kimbo in the 6th.

This figure today for Bodemeister is going to be sensationally fast as well.

He got the same exact loose lead trip that he had in his maiden win where he got the chiseled down looking figure of 99 that could have more easily been a 105.

Oaklawn Park Handicap: 1:49.94 (Alternation by 2.5 lengths over last out SA Handicap winner Ron The Greek)

Ark Derby: 1:48.71 (Bodemeister by 9.5 lengths over Secret Circle)

Bodemeister will get a figure today 12 points faster than Alternation. 15 points faster than Secret Circle and 16 points faster than Ron The Greek.

Alternation was coming in off of back-to-back 100's. Secret Circle was coming in off of a 92 and 102. Ron The Greek was coming in off of a breakaway speed duel aided 105 and didn't get pace help today.

The sheet style numbers will continue to look great for Secret Circle because he carried 122lbs VS 117-to-118 for the other three horses (abt 1.75 lengths in weight on sheets) and he raced 3-to-4 wide on both turns...but he badly needs a freshening and has no shot of getting any piece in the Derby with these same wide-stalking back trips.

105 is the Beyer. Seems a bit light again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch (Post 852671)

105 is the Beyer. Seems a bit light again.

93 for older horses in the Oaklawn Park Handicap? If you do his maiden win right it's a 105.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch (Post 852671)

105 is the Beyer. Seems a bit light again.

You can't really compare them directly because of distance, I suppose, but the horse that won the 8f Northern Dancer (beating known quantity Drill) ran as fast a mile as Bodemeister did in the Arkansas Derby.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 852676)

Oaklawn is a weirdly configured track with a down-hill stretch run.

When Curlin won the Ark Derby by 10.5 lengths his mile was 1:38.18 -- one race earlier -- a 3yo filly named Cream Only who I honestly don't even remember won a small stake race at 30/1 odds in final time of 1:38.88

When Afleet Alex won the Ark Derby by 8 lengths over 2nd place Flower Alley his mile was 1:37.06 -- $25,000 N3L Claimers went 1:37.88 at a mile on the same card.