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-   -   5/21 (PIM): Preakness (G1), DuPont, Sprint, Gallorette, Schaefer (G3's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42344)

blackthroatedwind 05-19-2011 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 777428)
Performing isn't terrible even though she's not overly classy - she won by 4 1/2 next out and then won one of the races on the big carryover day. . . but I agree - Desert Sage hasn't beaten much. I have a hard time tying her to the fields she ran against, though, because she beat them so easily and while coming home extremely quickly with less-than-advantageous set-ups. I refuse to swallow 4-5 on the very overrated Shared Account--even though she still towers over these on paper--and think there's enough of a chance that Desert Sage is as good as she looked to me visually to key her hard against the chalk. I guess I still have to use Shared Account, though. These races kind of suck compared to Churchill's Derby Day card. . .
I don't disagree that taking a short price on Shared Account is difficult. She's not as good as BC Turf Distaff should suggest. But she's still pretty good, and basically every race she ran last year towers over this field. Given the quality of this field, it seems a mistake to go fishing for horses that are simply very unlikely to beat her. All she has, theoretically, against her is the layoff. However, she ran well in this race last year off a layoff. Well enough, in fact, to easily handle this field.

RolloTomasi 05-19-2011 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 777390)
I like Dialed In to beat Midnight Interlude.
So do I.

Who do you think is going to win the race, though?

King Glorious 05-19-2011 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 777442)
So do I.

Who do you think is going to win the race, though?
LOL. I like Dialed In to win the race. I'm not sold on Animal Kingdom. I still think it's an inconsistent crop and they take turns beating each other. I think the pace will be more legitimate this time and if AK is up anywhere near where he was last time, it will take away a lot of his stretch kick and the race looks to set up well for a closer and in absence of any real ones, Dialed In is the one I chose.

ateamstupid 05-19-2011 08:26 PM
Obviously Paddy is the horse to beat in the Dixie, but if he missteps off the break, I think Baryshnikov has a big shot.

Dahoss 05-19-2011 08:41 PM
Quite an undercard for the Preakness...:rolleyes:

philcski 05-19-2011 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 777428)
Performing isn't terrible even though she's not overly classy - she won by 4 1/2 next out and then won one of the races on the big carryover day. . . but I agree - Desert Sage hasn't beaten much. I have a hard time tying her to the fields she ran against, though, because she beat them so easily and while coming home extremely quickly with less-than-advantageous set-ups. I refuse to swallow 4-5 on the very overrated Shared Account--even though she still towers over these on paper--and think there's enough of a chance that Desert Sage is as good as she looked to me visually to key her hard against the chalk. I guess I still have to use Shared Account, though. These races kind of suck compared to Churchill's Derby Day card. . .
I don't really understand why you think Desert Sage has any chance to win here. She was an absolute pig in Europe, gets the Chad Brown magic juice, and suddenly is a world beater?

philcski 05-19-2011 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 777586)
Quite an undercard for the Preakness...:rolleyes:
Yeah, it's pretty mediocre. I'm disappointed, not a whole lot of good betting races.

Dahoss 05-19-2011 09:19 PM
I don't think it's that crazy to try and beat Shared Account at what is going to be a really low price. It's not like she's some world beater and who's to say she's going to be the same horse she was last year, off the layoff?

I'm not going to go crazy trying to beat her, but I think No Explaining has a shot.

hockey2315 05-19-2011 09:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski (Post 777595)
I don't really understand why you think Desert Sage has any chance to win here. She was an absolute pig in Europe, gets the Chad Brown magic juice, and suddenly is a world beater?
She looks like a pretty obvious bleeder. . . not that I'm really concerned at all with her Euro form. Who cares if it was the Chad Brown juice (not that it is)? I was very impressed with her two starts at Gulfstream. . . I guess I'm the only person on the planet who was. That makes me happy. I'll still use some Shared Account and maybe a little No Explaining as a back-up.

Scav 05-19-2011 09:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 777603)
She looks like a pretty obvious bleeder. . . not that I'm really concerned at all with her Euro form. Who cares if it was the Chad Brown juice (not that it is)? I was very impressed with her two starts at Gulfstream. . . I guess I'm the only person on the planet who was. That makes me happy. I'll still use some Shared Account and maybe a little No Explaining as a back-up.
Please explain how you can tell if she is a bleeder from PP's

hockey2315 05-19-2011 10:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav (Post 777605)
Please explain how you can tell if she is a bleeder from PP's
Like I said - her Euro form has nothing to do with my opinion of her. . . But, are we to assume that when she lost by 101 1/4 lengths in her four most recent starts that she was running to the best of her ability? She came to the U.S. and hmmm all of a sudden she's better while getting Lasix.

Scav 05-19-2011 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 777606)
Like I said - her Euro form has nothing to do with my opinion of her. . . But, are we to assume that when she lost by 101 1/4 lengths in her four most recent starts that she was running to the best of her ability? She came to the U.S. and hmmm all of a sudden she's better while getting Lasix.
Dude, not knocking ya, but assuming she was a bleeder is not solid reasoning. Alot of horses bleed to different degrees.

How about she likes a firm course and maybe a cut back in distance.

I like her, No Explaining and Dyna Waltz equally. I like betting Sheppard's horses 2nd off the layoff and between May and September. Shared Account sucks, and far from good enough to give 10-12lbs away those fillies

hockey2315 05-19-2011 10:13 PM
I don't need solid reasoning, because I'm not evaluating her based on that form. . . Phil's comment that she was a "pig in Europe" just seemed sort of irrelevant to me, so that's why I mentioned that she's probably a bleeder. Here's an interesting quote from her trainer when they decided to run her in the Irish Oaks: "It's raining over there, and that's good for her."

Scav 05-19-2011 10:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 777609)
I don't need solid reasoning, because I'm not evaluating her based on that form. . . Phil's comment that she was a "pig in Europe" just seemed sort of irrelevant to me, so that's why I mentioned that she's probably a bleeder. Here's an interesting quote from her trainer when they decided to run her in the Irish Oaks: "It's raining over there, and that's good for her."
And trainers know EVERYTHING, and this filly then proceeds to get drilled on good-soft ground (Grade 1 though) and soft before they realized they need firmer ground.

I understand you tossing her euro form, but adding Lasix doesn't improve horses a billion lengths. Preferred ground and horses like Differentiate help.

philcski 05-19-2011 10:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 777609)
I don't need solid reasoning, because I'm not evaluating her based on that form. . . Phil's comment that she was a "pig in Europe" just seemed sort of irrelevant to me, so that's why I mentioned that she's probably a bleeder. Here's an interesting quote from her trainer when they decided to run her in the Irish Oaks: "It's raining over there, and that's good for her."
Maybe she's a bleeder- I think that's a reasonable assumption, I thought the same thing. But the very relevant fact is her maiden win over there was in one of the worst meets in GB, and against "real" competition she was noncompetitive. Now that she's won a decent N1X and a mediocre N2X she's supposed to step up and beat the FMT champ in a race with no pace? And improve 4-5 lengths more in the process to do so? Seems like a tall task for a horse that will be 5-1. I just don't see the point of even betting this race. It's truly terrible.

Dahoss 05-19-2011 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav (Post 777608)
Dude, not knocking ya, but assuming she was a bleeder is not solid reasoning. Alot of horses bleed to different degrees.
Assuming she was a bleeder isn't solid reasoning? But assuming her improvement was due to a firm surface is?

What is the difference between the two?

Merlinsky 05-19-2011 11:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 777522)
LOL. I like Dialed In to win the race. I'm not sold on Animal Kingdom. I still think it's an inconsistent crop and they take turns beating each other. I think the pace will be more legitimate this time and if AK is up anywhere near where he was last time, it will take away a lot of his stretch kick and the race looks to set up well for a closer and in absence of any real ones, Dialed In is the one I chose.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05...-favorite.html

Baffert said he thought Animal Kingdom was a star, and he's just hoping Midnight Interlude can run second. I'm sure Bob will talk about his feelings about going against AK tomorrow on ATR. I know Steve Haskin's been hanging out at Fair Hill a lot, but Bob's not seen AK training as far as I know. Maybe someone gave him the skinny on the competition (possibly Haskin?), who knows. As Barry Irwin said "trust no one"--wait that was The X-Files, but the point still holds. "The truth is out there"...that's gotta be Barry--no, crap, X-Files again.

Scav 05-20-2011 08:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 777614)
Assuming she was a bleeder isn't solid reasoning? But assuming her improvement was due to a firm surface is?

What is the difference between the two?
As Phil noted, maybe she was a bleeder, she probably was, ALOT if not most horses bleed, and even some horses bleed through lasix.

I looked at it that she ran some decent races on a very firm turf course (nothing like she had ever seen over in Europe) and ran those races on a course that was very speed favoring.

I find that reasoning much more solid then Lasix moved the horse up. (And I know this wasn't his only reason but I don't understand the focus because Lasix is not some miracle drug)

slotdirt 05-20-2011 08:19 AM
Today is five years to the day since Barbaro's Preakness breadown. Truly a day at the track I'll never forget.

ellpol 05-20-2011 09:02 AM
Save your $$$ for the 13th race on Preakness day the 1 wire to wire on a good turf. The 12 post won't help though, but Edgar can get Leather Gloves out and over for Hammy Smith. I hope, that's my big bet for the day. Good luck to all.


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