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-   -   Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41600)

blackthroatedwind 03-29-2011 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 764206)
I'll disagree with you completely on this. IMO he was slow as a 2 year old, but his return race was very good while wide the entire race and they are using the Blue Grass as a final tightner, ala Street Sense and he will run a big race in the Derby. 6pt top (TG) in his return race signals a very healthy horse (maybe almost too healthy) and if he pairs that in the Blue Grass he will be a great bet in the Derby.

All that and because I keyed him up and down in Future pool exactas. :)

You also liked Kathmanblu.

I hate to tell you, but TG figs don't tell the whole story, and they omit his candy trip, as far as dynamics are concerned, in the Risen Star. Sometimes wide is not only not so bad, sometimes it's actually good, except for people that blindly follow sheet numbers. But, then again, you can take solace in knowing there's always " bounce " as a further excuse.

I prefer slow....but maybe that's only because I don't want to lose money on him. However, if there is an early pool on the Secretariat I might be inclined to take a little 25:1.

Then again, he was a Trips&Traps horse after his debut.

Indian Charlie 03-29-2011 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 764203)
Giacomo...should I continue. Just shut the hell up

Again. That might have been the worst Derby field in 20 years, except for Afleet Alex.

You do remember what happened to Afleet Alex, right?

Or maybe you think Mo isn't as good as AA, I don't know.

Either way, you are both wrong and a moron.

randallscott35 03-29-2011 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 764211)
Again. That might have been the worst Derby field in 20 years, except for Afleet Alex.

You do remember what happened to Afleet Alex, right?

Or maybe you think Mo isn't as good as AA, I don't know.

Either way, you are both wrong and a moron.

Really worst field ever. Maybe you missed Bellamy Road's Wood that year. Was that fast enough for you?...You swtich arguments between fields and slow. And your wild Indian Charlie Bromance is taking you nowhere in life.

Alan07 03-29-2011 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 764162)
Why is the Blue Grass Stakes still a Grade 1?

Keeneland.

Scav 03-29-2011 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 764210)
You also liked Kathmanblu.

I hate to tell you, but TG figs don't tell the whole story, and they omit his candy trip, as far as dynamics are concerned, in the Risen Star. Sometimes wide is not only not so bad, sometimes it's actually good, except for people that blindly follow sheet numbers. But, then again, you can take solace in knowing there's always " bounce " as a further excuse.

I prefer slow....but maybe that's only because I don't want to lose money on him. However, if there is an early pool on the Secretariat I might be inclined to take a little 25:1.

Then again, he was a Trips&Traps horse after his debut.

I will admit that a couple years ago I fell into just using TG numbers, and it was a valuable learning lesson for me personally. I'll watch the Risen Star again because I have only watched it twice, but wide, on the dirt, is not where you want to be at FG. On the turf, sure, but not on the dirt, imo.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-29-2011 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 764323)
but wide, on the dirt, is not where you want to be at FG.

In general - you're right.

However - the pace was such a crawl that race - and outside pressing/stalking trips are always ideal in slow early- fast late races. Even at FG.

RolloTomasi 03-29-2011 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 764190)
By the way, this "slow" horse improved his top Beyer by 13 points in his sophomore debut, and has a graded two-turn win over the CD surface.

If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Le Prince in the 1990 Travers. That would have been a complete wild card.

justindew 03-29-2011 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 764398)
If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Le Prince in the 1990 Travers. That would have been a complete wild card.

Jesustapdancingchrist.

To me, as I explained earlier, a "wild card" is a horse whose talent level isn't was well established as many of his opponents. Santiva was not fast enough to compete with the likes of Uncle Mo, The Factor, etc. as a juvenile. In his only race this year, he ran well and earned a much higher fig than anything he had produced last year. He will have one more race before the Derby, and that race will be over synthetic- meaning it won't tell me all I would like to know about his form or talent level. Thus, at least as far as I am concerned, there will be a big question mark next to his name.

So I called him a wild card.

RolloTomasi 03-29-2011 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 764401)
So I called him a wild card.

I get your reasoning now.

The Kentucky Derby will be Uncle Mo versus 19 complete wild cards.

justindew 03-29-2011 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 764406)
I get your reasoning now.

The Kentucky Derby will be Uncle Mo versus 19 complete wild cards.

Now you're being completely ridiculous as opposed to just ridiculous.

miraja2 03-29-2011 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 764398)
If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

asudevil 03-29-2011 05:57 PM

BLUE GRASS

Crimson China
Santiva
Willcox Inn
Monzon
Joe's Blazing Aaron

Queen'splatekitten (Possible)
Data Link (Possible)
King Congie (Possible)

Swift Warrior to the Blue Grass

blackthroatedwind 03-29-2011 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 764434)
Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

Justin Dew now has a spokesman?

justindew 03-29-2011 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 764434)
Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

Thanks, I think.

justindew 03-29-2011 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 764437)
Justin Dew now has a spokesman?

For the record, I intend to really step up my posting game in the coming weeks. No more blatant (though apparently not obvious to all) attempts to rile people up.

blackthroatedwind 03-29-2011 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 764439)
For the record, I intend to really step up my posting game in the coming weeks. No more blatant (though apparently not obvious to all) attempts to rile people up.

Raising your game won't be hard. Lowering it would be impossible.

I consider you a flatliner.

RolloTomasi 03-29-2011 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 764434)
Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

Spare me. The gripe is clearly with the wording "complete wild card". The horse is hardly that. Santiva has enough of a relevant race record to go on if he were to make the Kentucky Derby field.

Canonero III, he ain't.

justindew 03-29-2011 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 764444)

I consider you a flatliner.

I know of no one on DT who would disagree with you there. But I've got some posts planned for the coming weeks that will really knock your socks off.

You also haven't accepted my Facebook friend request yet.

blackthroatedwind 03-29-2011 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 764451)
You also haven't accepted my Facebook friend request yet.


I wouldn't want you to feel like something you're not......special.

If it makes you feel better, I never friended RockHardTen either.

VOL JACK 03-29-2011 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 764456)
I wouldn't want you to feel like something you're not......special.

If it makes you feel better, I never friended RockHardTen either.

Or Vol Jack..

But that's OK...I'll just continue to troll his tweets.


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