Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 673618)

What holes can you pick in that performance?

Was it that he didn't carry enough weight? (a mere 133lbs giving 12 away to a pair of last-out Derby winners)

Was it that he didn't run fast enough? (He shattered the course record and ran 60 Beyer points faster than a 3yo male 3-time winner at the same distance the very next race)

Was it that he didn't beat quality competition? (obviously he did - and the 4 other Group 1 winners in the race he beat were all in sharp recent form.)

The only slightest thing I can say about his performance that isn't glowing is that the two Derby winners did kind of eye-ball each other a bit early on in the race and he was behind them in a perfect targeting spot. Basically, he had a nice early position. That's the only knock I see... and few look harder for knocks than I do.

Brock - I did a whole lot of cringing last year reading all that brutal nonsense about Sea The Stars being possibly the best horse ever.

He won the Arc by 2 lengths over Youmzain carrying 9lbs less than Youmzain. Youmzain's form is as fine as ever and he was 3rd by 14+ lengths with a good trip yesterday.

Sea The Stars other celebrated wins came by just a length or so at the expense of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman ... about the only two European horses to under perform their odds on Breeders Cup Day over the last two years. They gave him a 138 when he beat Fame And Glory by 2.5 lengths .. and FaG was soundly beaten in his next two races.

Sea The Stars had a very royal pedigree, he always fired, he made the best of the fact that European racing wildly favors 3-year-olds over older horses with the extreme weight spreads they impose against olders, but he never delivered a performance even remotely like the one whatever his name is did yesterday.

By the way ... in my book, Fame and Glory has the 2nd greatest initals ever for an outstanding horse. Slightly behind Heritage of Gold. HoG and FaG

Originally Posted by brockguy (Post 673772)

OK my attempt to pick holes in the form - before I do it, Ill say looking back it was a fantastic performance and seeing Timeform gave him 142, my mark looks rather stingy - I guess I dont rate Cape Blanco et al as high as the professionals.


Weight isnt an issue for me - its WFA so thats what older horses are supposed to carry against 3yos at this time of year, he'll give 8 pounds to these guys in Paris in October.

The time isnt as big a deal as you make it to be - the course in Ascot is only 5 or so years old and they are constantly breaking track records at every distance - there isnt that many top quality 12f races at Ascot (i can only think of 2, the King George and the Harwicke - Harbinger won both!). I havent got the chance to watch the race after the King George but the comments are that it was a steady early pace, unlike the feature.

The way I saw the race beforehand was I hated all the 3yos in the race - Workforce's derby was (excuse my hyperbole) a big farce of a race - everything just didnt seem right. They smashed the record time despite not going that quickly, I dont buy it at all, my guess is they did something with the railings which made the track shorter than usual.

Cape Blanco is an OK horse but not a superstar - yeah he won the Irish Derby but it was a far from vintage race - which seemed to prove to me that this crop of 3yos are well below average.

Youmzain got hammered in this race 2 years ago by Duke of Marmalade. He is a ridiculously quirky horse that obviously likes the set up he gets in the Arc.

Daryakana looks like countless other older fillies who were top class at 3 but have struggled for form at 4.

The disappointing thing about Sea The Stars was he never won by much - he just toyed with his opponents. I do agree that his Irish Champion Stakes win over FAG :) was overrated. Harbinger is a much bigger stronger horse (who won his seasonal debut over 13f) and is the type of horse to ground others into submission and win by distances like we saw yesterday.


I do feel im being overly negative here when we saw a brilliant performance but Im yet to be convinced that he is a better racehorse than Shergar, Dancing Brave, Dubai Millennium and Sea The Stars..

Originally Posted by brockguy (Post 673772)

OK my attempt to pick holes in the form - before I do it, Ill say looking back it was a fantastic performance and seeing Timeform gave him 142, my mark looks rather stingy - I guess I dont rate Cape Blanco et al as high as the professionals.


Weight isnt an issue for me - its WFA so thats what older horses are supposed to carry against 3yos at this time of year, he'll give 8 pounds to these guys in Paris in October.

The time isnt as big a deal as you make it to be - the course in Ascot is only 5 or so years old and they are constantly breaking track records at every distance - there isnt that many top quality 12f races at Ascot (i can only think of 2, the King George and the Harwicke - Harbinger won both!). I havent got the chance to watch the race after the King George but the comments are that it was a steady early pace, unlike the feature.

The way I saw the race beforehand was I hated all the 3yos in the race - Workforce's derby was (excuse my hyperbole) a big farce of a race - everything just didnt seem right. They smashed the record time despite not going that quickly, I dont buy it at all, my guess is they did something with the railings which made the track shorter than usual.

Cape Blanco is an OK horse but not a superstar - yeah he won the Irish Derby but it was a far from vintage race - which seemed to prove to me that this crop of 3yos are well below average.

Youmzain got hammered in this race 2 years ago by Duke of Marmalade. He is a ridiculously quirky horse that obviously likes the set up he gets in the Arc.

Daryakana looks like countless other older fillies who were top class at 3 but have struggled for form at 4.

The disappointing thing about Sea The Stars was he never won by much - he just toyed with his opponents. I do agree that his Irish Champion Stakes win over FAG :) was overrated. Harbinger is a much bigger stronger horse (who won his seasonal debut over 13f) and is the type of horse to ground others into submission and win by distances like we saw yesterday.


I do feel im being overly negative here when we saw a brilliant performance but Im yet to be convinced that he is a better racehorse than Shergar, Dancing Brave, Dubai Millennium and Sea The Stars..

Originally Posted by brockguy (Post 673772)

Weight isnt an issue for me - its WFA so thats what older horses are supposed to carry against 3yos at this time of year, he'll give 8 pounds to these guys in Paris in October.

Originally Posted by brockguy (Post 673772)

The time isnt as big a deal as you make it to be - the course in Ascot is only 5 or so years old and they are constantly breaking track records at every distance - there isnt that many top quality 12f races at Ascot (i can only think of 2, the King George and the Harwicke - Harbinger won both!). I havent got the chance to watch the race after the King George but the comments are that it was a steady early pace, unlike the feature.

Originally Posted by brockguy (Post 673772)

I do feel im being overly negative here when we saw a brilliant performance but Im yet to be convinced that he is a better racehorse than Shergar, Dancing Brave, Dubai Millennium and Sea The Stars..

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 673975)

Speaking of horses who actually have done enough...

How about Youmzain made his 22nd straight start in a Group 1 race?

I wonder what the record for consecutive starts at the Gr 1 level is?

The last time he ran at a level other than Group 1 was the Gr 2 Prix Neal on September 10th 2006. In that race - he was 2nd beaten just a half length to Rail Link.

Rail Link won the Arc at 23/1 odds next time out and was retired. Instead of running in the Arc, Youmzain instead went to Germany and won a Group 1 there.

He finished 2nd in the Arc in 2007, 2008, and 2009 ... he probably would have been 2nd in 2006 from the looks of it had he gone there instead.

Of his 22 straight Group 1 starts - they've come in the following countries - Germany, Dubai, Ireland, France, England, and Hong Kong. Before Saturday, he was only beaten by 6 lengths or more one time over that stretch .. that was when he finished 3rd by 9.5 lengths to Duke Of Marmalade despite the fact the chart says he "missed break" and "was squeezed back 1.5 furlongs out"

He's carried 131lbs or more 8 times over that stretch and has made over $6 million.

No world beater - but what a nice tough honest horse

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 673950)

I know it's WFA, but the scales in Europe favor the 3yo's to an extreme in relation to how things are in North America.

You mention the Arc ... since 1994, 3-year-olds have won the Arc 13 times while older horses have won the Arc just 3 times.

Compare that to our Breeders Cup Races:

3-year-olds have taken 9 BC Classics while older horses have won 17.

3-year-olds have taken 7 BC Turfs while older horses have won 19 races. In one edition a pair of older horses dead-heated - so you could say 20 wins.

3-year-olds have taken 8 BC Miles while older horses have won 18.

3-year-olds have taken 7 BC Distaffs while older horses have won 19.

3-year-olds have taken 6 BC Sprints while older horses have won 20.

I think the spread in weight has something to do with that. If you believe Thoro-Graph or the Ragozin sheets, 8 pounds at 12 furlongs equals 3 3/4 lengths ... which is a very significant margin in a turf race. If you believe Beyer's study in Beyer on Speed the impact is about 2.5 lengths.

Basically, the older horses give a way a big handicap to 3yo's in a race like the Arc. In the Breeders Cup races - the weight break the 3yo's get is just half of what it is in the Arc.




I get that.

I've never been a big fan of speed figures for turf races - but since '91 when they've first been published - the top figure earned in a turf race was a 118. Daylami's BC Turf win was a 118 for instance.

Considering the beaten length margins between each horse in the field - and the final time in the next race at the same distance ... it's 100% impossible for the winners Beyer figure to be anything less than a 120 and even when you bake some real caution into the number - it's still in the 125 range .. which makes it literally open lengths better than any single performance we've seen in a turf race since '91 over in North America.

You go on about how the two 3yo's are just ok - overrated horses who are far from superstars. How the two big older horses are just honest nothing special types who didn't run to their best. That's fine. Even assuming that all of them didn't fire their good race and ran at a level that might get them beat in one of our typical crappy Grade 3 turf stakes in America .. even assuming that, the winner still ran a better race than any turf winner we've ever seen in America since '91 based on figures.




That's fine. Outside of two races at 12 furlongs at Ascot ... what special has this winner ever done in his career? Nothing special.

I'm of the opinion that's he a rapidly improving 4yo and not a course and trip specialist ... but great horses always have to go and hold form for the public to give them the respect they deserve.

What he does in the Arc over possible soft ground, without such a choice early position, for a legendary trainer who I believe still hasn't won the race before ... that is what will ultimately define the horse in the public's eye. In my eye .. what he does in that situation won't matter at all.

His performance yesterday was an all-time great treasure - both visually and analytically.

I'm not into art or music that much .. but he just painted a picture or put together a song for the ages. His next few pieces of work will determine his place with the great artists, but his piece of work yesterday was as good as it ever gets and nothing can change it much.

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 674029)

Fantastic post.

Originally Posted by brockguy (Post 674274)

Drugs I agree with above - it was..

He gets a RPR of 135 for it - That sounded quite low but it sounds like theyve taken a very conservative view of it

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/hom...280182452.0112

The last time I can think of a race like this was the 2003 Lockinge when Hawk Wing demolished a proper G1 field and got a ridiculously high mark which was eventually scaled down. However, on some lines of form, he could have been rated the best horse of all time, a bit like Saturday's race.

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 674309)

i don't think he ever duplicated that effort, did he? i remember him coming over for the classic that year, he didn't do much. a shame, as he was a nice horse. another bred here and taken overseas to shine; i think he was a PA bred?

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 674342)

Hawk Wing was a KY bred. For a minute I thought he might have been a Strawbridge PA bred, sold at auction to Coolmore, but if memory serves me correctly he was a Coolmore homebred.



Great thread guys. I don't know what to add other than that's in the top 3 performances I've ever seen on turf. Stunning turn of foot in the lane.

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 674344)

ok, thanks. one of those back in his day was a pa bred, maybe a filly running about the same time as him. edit-then again, maybe not. just looked up nebraska tornado, but she's also ky-bred...

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 674342)

Hawk Wing was a KY bred. For a minute I thought he might have been a Strawbridge PA bred, sold at auction to Coolmore, but if memory serves me correctly he was a Coolmore homebred.

Originally Posted by PatCummings (Post 674089)

Richard Hannon is staying home with all his horses, unless he changes his story. He said his horses race in Europe, nothing wrong with staying there...this was about 1.5 months ago. So don't get all excited waiting for Paco Boy, or any of his others...

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 674360)

Are you thinking of With Anticipation?