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-   -   Breeders Cup Day 2 thoughts (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32600)

philcski 11-09-2009 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Thanks guys.

Everything worked out great and I just absolutely killed them in the P3s and P4s all day long.

Vale of York's win was really big for me. A total absolute game changer because of where the race was positioned on the days card.

Betting horses profitably is as much about clever and creative betting strategy as it is about clever and creative sound handicapping.

My approach to betting the Turf Sprint (I talked about the strategy in the 1st post) turned out to be an absolute masterpiece...the difference between a very good day and a great day. It allowed me to catch Dancing in Silks in the BC Sprint on a spread with a still affordable ticket. Can't say I liked DiS much, but he did have the fields best last race Beyer - and had proved he can win without the lead.

great job all weekend. ****in killed it. the only other person that even MENTIONED Vale of York was Sniper (who also had him as his top selection.)

Dancing in Silks wasn't impossible by any means. if you ignored the morning line... it was a wide open field. he was my 4th choice behind Fatal Bullet, Capt, and Gayego. I didn't like Cal Flag at ALL, which really cost me.

brianwspencer 11-09-2009 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
great job all weekend. ****in killed it. the only other person that even MENTIONED Vale of York was Sniper (who also had him as his top selection.)

Dancing in Silks wasn't impossible by any means. if you ignored the morning line... it was a wide open field. he was my 4th choice behind Fatal Bullet, Capt, and Gayego. I didn't like Cal Flag at ALL, which really cost me.

Gotta Have Her would have made my day ridiculously profitable...unfortunately I played against California Flag entirely and Gotta Have Her got in just enough trouble to keep it from being interesting.

slotdirt 11-09-2009 12:19 PM

I tried to completely kick out the favorite with Vale of York, and failed. Nice job, DrugSy.

DaTruth 11-09-2009 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
You're Welcome.

I know most will say coming up with him was all luck
.

You did your homework. It wasn't luck. Great job.

Antitrust32 11-09-2009 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
great job all weekend. ****in killed it. the only other person that even MENTIONED Vale of York was Sniper (who also had him as his top selection.)

Dancing in Silks wasn't impossible by any means. if you ignored the morning line... it was a wide open field. he was my 4th choice behind Fatal Bullet, Capt, and Gayego. I didn't like Cal Flag at ALL, which really cost me.


Hey! I picked Vale of York in the BC Contest! (granted I only picked because of the Euro longshot angle and I have an ex who lives in York)

Thought for sure I was going to win the BC Contest when Vale of York won and Corageous Cat ran 2nd next out.. great job mira and RHT!

tector 11-09-2009 12:58 PM

VoY was my salvation for a modest profit on the day, just because I had him on some back-up tickets. But I certainly did not crush him, or the day--congrats Drugs!

Where did you wind up playing? I was at Green Valley Ranch, which is one of the Station properties. Very comfortable.

I was a LONG day. Had to be at the book by 8am to get a good seat. Then all day horse racing. Then hopped in the car around 5:00pm and went to the Rio to watch the WSOP. Stayed there until 2:45am, when I was just semi-conscious (they finished up--down to two players--at 5:50am). Back to the hotel and sleep around 3:30am.

I am too old for this crap!

philcski 11-09-2009 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Gotta Have Her would have made my day ridiculously profitable...unfortunately I played against California Flag entirely and Gotta Have Her got in just enough trouble to keep it from being interesting.

Mine too. She was my top choice in that race as well

The Indomitable DrugS 11-13-2009 03:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tector
Where did you wind up playing? I was at Green Valley Ranch, which is one of the Station properties. Very comfortable.

I was a LONG day. Had to be at the book by 8am to get a good seat. Then all day horse racing. Then hopped in the car around 5:00pm and went to the Rio to watch the WSOP. Stayed there until 2:45am, when I was just semi-conscious (they finished up--down to two players--at 5:50am). Back to the hotel and sleep around 3:30am.

I am too old for this crap!

Is Green Valley Ranch on or off the strip? I don't think I saw that one.

I was most comfortable in the Ballagio's racebook ... the chairs they have are the bomb. Liked it better than the other ones I saw ... The Rio, Ceaser's Palace, and The Orleans.

The most annoying thing by far was trying to watch a football game on Sunday. All of the racebooks and sportsbooks I went to ... NOT A SINGLE ONE would let you watch football on your personal mini-tv.

They didn't show the Pats game locally - so I couldn't get it in the room... they showed the Cards/Bears game and Colts/Texans game ... so it was impossible to watch the game and horses simultaniously on Sunday.

I had to walk over to the Sports book and strain my neck watching it because every chair was taken.

Food was either great but kind of expensive or good but cheap...depending on where you went.

I was at a buffet and I see an old black guy with a big gold cross .. and two females. One a REAL hot young very light skinned probably white girl .. the other a middle aged asain girl. I swear to God I've seen this guy on tv before but I wasn't sure where. I kept thinking he was connected to boxing somehow...I had to see this guy on a HBO fight telecast somewhere or something. After about ten minutes .. it hit me ... it was Joe Jackson and I saw him on Larry King.

I wish I had my cell phone on me for that .. I would have loved to have got a picture with him and sent it to a few people.

I got to see real actual street hookers for the first time in my life. There were two black girls dressed super trashy prancing around on the sidewalk by the Burger King at 4AM - it was in between where The Palms and Orleans are and where the casino with the roller coaster in front of it is.

I got some cool pics on my cell phone ... but next time I go I have to bring a real camera and take some pics and talk to some of these people.

I was so locked in on the horses and wanting to see my game on Sunday .. and because of how well things went betting on Saturday I needed to be wasting money drinking with strippers and feeling good the rest of the time after that.

But it would have been real epic if I brought a camera and took some pictures and did a story post with them.

Kasept 11-13-2009 05:03 AM

Doug,

Tremendous work.. Other than using Furthest Land in P3's, which salvaged the day, I stumbled around Saturday.









No streetwalkers in Erie huh?

dalakhani 11-13-2009 08:31 AM

This is amazing work. Congrats!

BTW, Caesars lets you watch the games at the private tvs. Bellagio does have those wonderful leather chairs that you can just sink into. They also comp pretty well for your play on the horses. The only thing there is that they cut so much into the book to make more room for poker that it feels really congested in there.

The Indomitable DrugS 11-13-2009 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
BTW, Caesars lets you watch the games at the private tvs. Bellagio does have those wonderful leather chairs that you can just sink into.

Yeah, but the private TV's at Caesars are all reserved on Sunday. I can see reserving a few of them ... but all of them?

Yep - the chairs at the Bellagio are the best.

The Indomitable DrugS 11-13-2009 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Doug,

Tremendous work.. Other than using Furthest Land in P3's, which salvaged the day, I stumbled around Saturday.









No streetwalkers in Erie huh?

Thanks.

It's possible we might have some over on Holland Street. I've heard people say that before ... but I never go through there in the middle of the night.

I'm probably the only person alive deranged enough to want to ask them for a picture with them ... just so I can send it to people.

Sightseek 11-13-2009 11:44 AM

The photo would make great Christmas cards.

dalakhani 11-13-2009 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Yeah, but the private TV's at Caesars are all reserved on Sunday. I can see reserving a few of them ... but all of them?

Yep - the chairs at the Bellagio are the best.


You would be surprised how little handle they wanted. There were 3 of us (me, husband and friend) and they only wanted 2-3k handle per day...total. The private tables are where they want the big bucks (15-20k per day or big time diamond club).

GBBob and philly both recommended caesars and i was not disappointed. I loved it. I usually will stay at bellagio or wynn but I have a new appreciation for Caesars. As a funny side note, we saw Pete Rose in there...TWICE. Being there for BC was understandable but betting philly park on a monday at 9:30 a.m. PST was a little sad.

GBBob 11-13-2009 12:29 PM

[quote=dalakhani]
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Yeah, but the private TV's at Caesars are all reserved on Sunday. I can see reserving a few of them ... but all of them?

Yep - the chairs at the Bellagio are the best.[/QUOT


You would be surprised how little handle they wanted. There were 3 of us (me, husband and friend) and they only wanted 2-3k handle per day...total. The private tables are where they want the big bucks (15-20k per day or big time diamond club).

GBBob and philly both recommended caesars and i was not disappointed. I loved it. I usually will stay at bellagio or wynn but I have a new appreciation for Caesars. As a funny side note, we saw Pete Rose in there...TWICE. Being there for BC was understandable but betting philly park on a monday at 9:30 a.m. PST was a little sad.

Scavs saw him there Sunday afternoon

Scav 11-13-2009 12:45 PM

[quote=GBBob]
Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Scavs saw him there Sunday afternoon

He was yelling at the screen for a first half cover of some kind in the ATL/Wash game. Then he was yapping about Ventura costing him when I was talking to him.

At one point I saw him have about 5-7k in 100's sitting in front of him. I would like to comment on how hilarious he was dressed. He had some half cowboy boots on with some gangsta full white cincy reds hat, and some tricked out glasses with chinese dragons on them.

philcski 11-13-2009 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
You would be surprised how little handle they wanted. There were 3 of us (me, husband and friend) and they only wanted 2-3k handle per day...total. The private tables are where they want the big bucks (15-20k per day or big time diamond club).

GBBob and philly both recommended caesars and i was not disappointed. I loved it. I usually will stay at bellagio or wynn but I have a new appreciation for Caesars. As a funny side note, we saw Pete Rose in there...TWICE. Being there for BC was understandable but betting philly park on a monday at 9:30 a.m. PST was a little sad.

Did you see his little sports memorabilia store in the Forum Shops?

The Indomitable DrugS 11-13-2009 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
As a funny side note, we saw Pete Rose in there...TWICE. Being there for BC was understandable but betting philly park on a monday at 9:30 a.m. PST was a little sad.

I can't make fun of him for that ....

I was behind all day Monday until Kaper Lake first time for Scott Lake in a dirt sprint. I was amazed he paid 5/1 against that field. He didn't exactly perform like Shake You Down though .. was very fortunate to win.

I was hanging around the sports book on Monday Night conflicted about should I watch the football game and root for Pittsburgh because Denver is 1 game up on NE and has a tiebreaker for a playoff bye week- or should I go out and see more naked girls.

Everyone was saying "The Over has cashed every single Monday Night game but one." ... They were also telling me the over had moved like 2.5 points higher for this game from where it opened at. So.. it sounded like fish were driving the total up and not rational thinking by sharp people.

So, I get to thinking .. wait a second .. the Pats are the only NFL team I watch .. and Denver's D did such a masterful job at disguising coverages against them. They basically shut them out in the 2nd half. This game is in Denver ... that game was in Denver.

Why does this game have to go over?

So, I stand around by the betting lines close to kickoff listening and asking people who they like .... and a flood of dummy's come in to bet mostly on Pittsburgh ..and almost everyone who plays a total likes the over.

That cinches it for me ... all the squares like the over... I'll stay here bet the under and watch the game.

There's NOTHING more miserable than watching a game when you have the under. You're basically rooting for handoffs up the middle, holding penalties so long as the team isn't backed up, and a false start by the O-line after a running play by the offense is like the equivlant of hitting a home run in baseball.

I should have the stupid bet won ... but an injury by a Pittsburgh player saves 40 seconds of clock...because when there is an injury with under 2 minutes to go .. the players team gets charged with a timeout. After that, instead of running and icing up the win and ending the game ... Pittsburgh decides to throw a TD to Hines Ward.

Now, I basically feel like defeat is inevitable. Pittsburgh's D is either going to soften up and give a charity TD in the final minute because they're so far ahead ... or shaky Orton will throw a pick six to that hairy bastard from USC in the Steelers secondary.

Orton throws an INT and the Pittsburgh player takes a first step and move like he's determined to take it to the house .. than finally goes to the ground after he sees he won't have an easy TD return.

I won the bet, and it really wasn't even a decent sized bet to get excited about, but it still took all the fun out of watching the game.

I'm not a football bettor .. I know the game, and know how to watch it, but have no idea how to handicap it. If I ever bet an under again ... I swear I will not watch the game.

cakes44 11-13-2009 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
There's NOTHING more miserable than watching a game when you have the under.

Now that is SPOT ON.

Indian Charlie 11-13-2009 03:32 PM

The last sports bet I made was the under in the NYG/Baltimore Super Bowl.

That was a sick loss.


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