RolloTomasi |
10-30-2009 01:35 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
When they bring in overwhelming Euro form - or go 2nd time NA .. they tend to underperform expectations.
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In a way, O'Brien is basically throwing Hail Mary's with the majority of his North American starters. Certainly these NA stats are not representative of his overall record anymore than Bobby Frankel's in the BC are or Todd Pletcher's in the Derby.
Specifically with his "in form" horses, O'Brien often takes them out of their comfort zone (not even factoring in the trans-Atlantic shipping) by running them in the BC Classic or Juvenile. Those entries are for the most part are "hit or miss" with no real sort of insight beforehand. For every one Johannesburg or Giant's Causeway (who didn't win) there has to be a myriad of Hawk Wing's and George Washington's.
If you eliminate his dirt starters, I presume his NA stats look a little better. Certainly most of his turf performers have done fine (if not win) the last couple of BCs (eg Westphalia, Heart Shaped, Excellent Art, Achill Island).
Another confounder to his stats here would be the private purchases. Black Bear Island, Ciro, Plan, US Ranger, Ballingarry, all came over to run one time for him, basically with the deals already finalized and/or designs on leaving in this country with other trainers.
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