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-   -   10/24 (LRL): $300,000 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32384)

King Glorious 10-24-2009 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by docicu3
Warm and breezy here in Montgomery County Maryland at 9:20 AM, which may change before 5:09PM race time but at present it's a nice morning.

Steve D in Betting Thoro's in the 21st century talks about a conditioning bias that occurs from superior effort and gaining position on the turn in 6F and 7F races. The bulk of the field has worked or run at Laurel except VH.

Too often players who don't normally play Laurel regularly forget that home cooking is a big advantage here with works and races on this track seemingly an edge on big stakes days. 4 for 10 Roaring Lion ,the works of Rivalo over the Laurel quicksand and Ah Day's 8 for 14 at Laurel will likely be determining factors today.

Rose is having a wonderful fall as it seems everything he touches (NY,KY) recently is getting a picture taken. If VH wins I lose, but I'll take JR and Rivalo to gobble up VH during the long Laurel stretch run that is CD like in distance. VH is best on poly and will likely get an education today in the Dash.
Not to be mean but how can you expect anyone to take you seriously with comments like this?

10 pnt move up 10-24-2009 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
What an absolute horriffic beat if you needed Ravalo. Great race by the top 3 horses. Peace Chant looked like he may make late noise but the top 3 never stopped running. Fleet Valid sure has come a long way in a short amount of time.
Vinyard Haven had about the worst possible trip you can have.

VOL JACK 10-24-2009 05:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
Vinyard Haven had about the worst possible trip you can have.
:confused: :confused:

10 pnt move up 10-24-2009 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VOL JACK
:confused: :confused:
speed horse shuffled back into the slop, has to wait, gets mixed up between horses down the stretch, to explode late....if you think thats a good trip then you are with the rest on this thread that said VH just aint very good.

RockHardTen1985 10-24-2009 05:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
speed horse shuffled back into the slop, has to wait, gets mixed up between horses down the stretch, to explode late....if you think thats a good trip then you are with the rest on this thread that said VH just aint very good.

I dont see anyone saying hes not that good. This race with the rail draw did not set up for him. I can now ADMIT, he is much much better then I thought, and GODOLPHIN IS ON FIRE.

King Glorious 10-24-2009 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
I dont see anyone saying hes not that good. This race with the rail draw did not set up for him. I can now ADMIT, he is much much better then I thought, and GODOLPHIN IS ON FIRE.
I just don't see why anyone would say it didn't set up for him. Didn't anyone watch the King's Bishop? He was inside all of those speed horses but he had enough speed to keep them from coming over on him and then he battled with another horse before putting him away and opening up a lead. If that race was 6f, he wins it easily. Today was shorter with less talented horses. He was by far the most obvious choice going in. Sometimes people get too carried away with thinking that it's stupid to play a horse just because he's a favorite and they start looking for things that aren't there.

RockHardTen1985 10-24-2009 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
I just don't see why anyone would say it didn't set up for him. Didn't anyone watch the King's Bishop? He was inside all of those speed horses but he had enough speed to keep them from coming over on him and then he battled with another horse before putting him away and opening up a lead. If that race was 6f, he wins it easily. Today was shorter with less talented horses. He was by far the most obvious choice going in. Sometimes people get too carried away with thinking that it's stupid to play a horse just because he's a favorite and they start looking for things that aren't there.

I see what your saying, but taking 4-5 on him in this spot was insane IMO, I thought he would be 4-5,1-1 and he was.

10 pnt move up 10-24-2009 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
I see what your saying, but taking 4-5 on him in this spot was insane IMO, I thought he would be 4-5,1-1 and he was.
against the likes of the great Ravalo and Ah Day...i mean think about that, those horses suck and the fact the trip he got is the only thing that made it a contest.

This horse is an elite level talent.

10 pnt move up 10-24-2009 05:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
I see what your saying, but taking 4-5 on him in this spot was insane IMO, I thought he would be 4-5,1-1 and he was.
and I dont begrudge not liking his price, I just did not feel he was vulnerable.

Gander 10-24-2009 05:31 PM
I disagree, I thought he had every chance to draw off and win this race by more than he did, I dont think the trip was that bad for a horse thats "an elite talent"...I agree with Rock Hard Ten here and personally would have been betting with both fists against him. Turns out I am glad I didnt bet but by no means was it stupid to try and beat this horse. If you keep playing horses like Vineyard Haven at 4/5, you'll end up taking a huge beating.

King Glorious 10-24-2009 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
I see what your saying, but taking 4-5 on him in this spot was insane IMO, I thought he would be 4-5,1-1 and he was.
Then you don't take him but you don't have to play against him either. I didn't put it on this forum but I said on another one that he really had no reason to lose and should be 1/2.

10 pnt move up 10-24-2009 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I disagree, I thought he had every chance to draw off and win this race by more than he did, I dont think the trip was that bad for a horse thats "an elite talent"...I agree with Rock Hard Ten here and personally would have been betting with both fists against him. Turns out I am glad I didnt bet but by no means was it stupid to try and beat this horse. If you keep playing horses like Vineyard Haven at 4/5, you'll end up taking a huge beating.
If you keep playing against horses like this against grade 3 animals you will surely lose...thats my point, who says you have to play him, cant you pass the race?

Now Mrs Kipling later at SA, now thats a fav to bet against.

King Glorious 10-24-2009 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I disagree, I thought he had every chance to draw off and win this race by more than he did, I dont think the trip was that bad for a horse thats "an elite talent"...I agree with Rock Hard Ten here and personally would have been betting with both fists against him. Turns out I am glad I didnt bet but by no means was it stupid to try and beat this horse. If you keep playing horses like Vineyard Haven at 4/5, you'll end up taking a huge beating.
If you keep playing him at those odds against good horses, I agree. When he should be 8/5 and instead he's 4/5, you'll end up on the short end. But against fields like today, where he should be 1/2, you'll end up ahead if he keeps going off at 4/5.

Gander 10-24-2009 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Then you don't take him but you don't have to play against him either. I didn't put it on this forum but I said on another one that he really had no reason to lose and should be 1/2.
I was too hungover to get my act together and get out and either bet at the simuldump or load up my phone account.

I see what you are saying King. They're favorites that I love and I will bet at prices like 4/5. Like Driven by Success in today's race. I would have swallowed the pride and taken the $3.60 no problem. Usually though when I just like a favorite, I'll pass the race.

Good logic, we just dont agree on this particular 4/5 shot (Vineyard Haven) who happened to win. I probably would have made a medium size win bet on Peace Chant at 10/1.

Gander 10-24-2009 05:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
If you keep playing him at those odds against good horses, I agree. When he should be 8/5 and instead he's 4/5, you'll end up on the short end. But against fields like today, where he should be 1/2, you'll end up ahead if he keeps going off at 4/5.
:tro:
Agree 100% with your logic, just not this particular case.

Indian Charlie 10-24-2009 05:50 PM
I have a theory as to why Godolphin horses are suddenly running how they are expected to run.

That numbnut that's listed as trainer, Big Ben Suroor, he's actually been based in Europe since Summer, so someone else is doing the hands on training this year.

hockey2315 10-24-2009 05:51 PM
Pretty sure he has always been based abroad. . . and Rick Metee has been their North American trainer.

Indian Charlie 10-24-2009 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
Pretty sure he has always been based abroad. . . and Rick Metee has been their North American trainer.
Yeah, I wasn't too sure about this. Hence it being just a theory.

I know he would be based elsewhere during the winter months, but wasn't sure if he came here during peak racing season.

He always seemed to be around though, so thought that perhaps he was here.

If you have ever had the pleasure of hearing him talk, you'd be able to see how I came up with my theory.

hockey2315 10-24-2009 05:59 PM
I've talked to him before. I know what you mean.

Indian Charlie 10-24-2009 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
I've talked to him before. I know what you mean.

Wow. I'm so sorry for you.


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