sure...

Thanks Steve..Check out Sat. play along for more details of my first ever Pick-4.!! It was all you. Just screwing around while drinking some beers and used for most likely for races 7,8, and 9 with all of your picks for the 10th.
$4 = 268.50. WOW!!! I'll take it!

Call her whatever you want. Her recent performances said it all. She waits on horses.

And meet has been crazily chalky... (though Sciacca tried to shake it up in the opener with kooky San Naa at @ 60-1)...

Ah.. the Prince of the ATF comment.

Thattaboy! Glad you caught it... Was an OK pay considering the first three winners.

Including today she is 3/12 in the last 2 years.... Before that she was 7/10....Her numbers have never really improved, so the same horse who was 7/10 is still running, its not like she's fallen off, IMO at some point she lost the will to win and is now A HANGER... Todays race does not make me think other, that was the closest possible margin of victory.

Shes def. a hanger, but these guys tell me I dont understand dynamics... She had a rough trip today, SURE.... She was still all out to win at 1-5... Shes a ok Grade 3 level performer that they can make some money w/ if they continue to run her... Nothing more.

WoW!!

Ahhh.

So conveniently neglects post # 5.

Ooh.. the race dynamics catch-all! Much like the 'Twinkie Defense' for horses that really aren't that good. She's just not inclined to pass horses up front. 5 different riders since the start of 2008 too, so you can't claim ongoing ineptitude. Her 2 wins since last spring include the vanquishing of Callwood Dancer, Meadow Saffron (twice), Points of Grace, Favorite Fantasy, Remarkable Remy, Tell It Like It Is and then this collection of listed stake winners and G3 (at best) miserables.

Rutherienne is not the horse she gave the indication of being as a 3yo. I don't think there's a debate to have on the topic. And counting on her at 2-5 is a quick way to lose money. And she nearly came through with another disappointment yesterday like the mundane product she is.

She proved yesterday, after being put in tight by the punk Castellano, where Garcia wasn't able to whip her without hitting the rail, that she is game. Most horses don't battle back from being pinned inside. As for the indication she gave as a 3 year old: she got more than her share of PERFECT trips, including the Lake George, where she came up on the rail while Sharp Susan and Lady Attack were in the parking lot. I never thought much of this horse but she's cost me a ton of money with her photo wins. You can say that she's not that good, at least not G1 quality, but to consider her a hanger is to miss the point.

I don't know, maybe it's just me but I don't DEPEND on those instances where I need to get lucky to get me through the game, like RockHard... does. If I need to depend on a jock herding to win a race, putting another jock and horse in danger, and then have the balls to bitch afterwards when the attempt fails, what else need be said?

And, if race dynamics is a 'Twinkie Defense", what exactly is using someone else's FIGURES and DATA to form an opinion? Not watching races but trying to explain them by using the abstractions of others is really not conducive to any kind of argument I want to get into. But, it's the only one available here, it seems.

Fats,

I loved her as 3yo and thought she was a star at the end of 2007 and had huge things ahead... But didn't it turn out she was beating nothing special that year... Valbenny? Red Birkin? Sharp Susan? Bit of Whimsey? And getting ideal trips in beating them to boot? I'm not indicting her 'gameness'. She's been competitive for 2+ years at a high level. But at what point does she get labeled as an under-performer as a mare? She may simply be a difficult horse to ride in the way Perfect Drift was and Naughty New Yorker is/was; needing to be produced on perfect timing..

As to discussion of races and general capping habits and practices, I'm usually not one to label any particular approach negatively. Whatever gets winners is a good approach and everyone should develop their own unique style. I kidded about the race dynamics argument because it's completely interpretive and as easy an excuse for underwhelming effort as bounce theory is to sheet players.

I'm sorry if you find my incorporation of Thoro-Graph figs and statistics into my selection method some kind of egregious shortcut to perception. I incorporate much more than figs into my selection process, and I think I do pretty well. I watch as many races as time allows as part of my capping. I'd love to watch the last race of every competitor in every race, but many days it isn't practical.