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-   -   Mind that Bird last race before the derby (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29501)

gales0678 05-05-2009 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
I see that the horse ran 6f in change the race before, a race that went its final 3/8ths in 40-ish seconds while your boy Mine that Bird completely faded from contention. How does that correlate with the horse coming home in 47-ish seconds in a 10f race next out? It doesn't.


do you have the splits from the derby , he obviously didn't raun at all in the first 3 -4 f , borel took him back , what was his time for the last 6f in the derby surely somebody must have the splits no?


all i'm saying is that his race was better than it looked , how much better , whose to say , but, maybe just maybe he got more out of that race than people want to give him credit for , bumping the horses and taking back in the derby may have been a godsend cuse it allowed borel to conserve in the early part of the race and then unleash during the 2nd half of the race

slotdirt 05-05-2009 08:17 AM

I think officially the horse's internal fractions for the last half of the Derby were 47 and 1/5. That is faster than just about anybody not named Secretariat has run the last 4f of a Derby in at least as far back as I've looked.

slotdirt 05-05-2009 08:23 AM

I know, I know, different track, different day, different surface, blah, blah, blah, but for comparison's purposes, Ghostzapper ran the last half in his 2004 Breeders Cup Classic in 47.70.

gales0678 05-05-2009 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
I think officially the horse's internal fractions for the last half of the Derby were 47 and 1/5. That is faster than just about anybody not named Secretariat has run the last 4f of a Derby in at least as far back as I've looked.


ok , he ran a 45 and change at sunland in his prior race (he crawled home like you say in that race and he did) but didn't he crawl through the derby in the beginning - why couldn't he come home in 47 and change like he did in the derby after crawling in the beginnig - he was dead last no (i think durkin called him incorrectly on the backside)

Danzig 05-05-2009 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
I know, I know, different track, different day, different surface, blah, blah, blah, but for comparison's purposes, Ghostzapper ran the last half in his 2004 Breeders Cup Classic in 47.70.


aren't you comparing apples to caviar there?

slotdirt 05-05-2009 08:42 AM

It's why I made the caveat on different day, different surface. I don't think people are truly understanding just how fast Mine that Bird came home the other day.

Danzig 05-05-2009 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
It's why I made the caveat on different day, different surface. I don't think people are truly understanding just how fast Mine that Bird came home the other day.

can't speak for everyone else...but i don't care how fast he came home the other day.

it may be a different day and different surface, but i'd take GZ over a one hit wonder any day.

brianwspencer 05-05-2009 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
can't speak for everyone else...but i don't care how fast he came home the other day.

it may be a different day and different surface, but i'd take GZ over a one hit wonder any day.

He ran a good race, sure. But he's not actually any good, and I think that future results will prove that to be correct. He loved a surface over which other horses were spinning their wheels and got a sweet trip while sprinting home for a half-mile.

It kind of is what it is, and after much soul searching over the last few days, I'm willing to chalk this Derby up to "$hit happens," and move on with my life.

slotdirt 05-05-2009 08:56 AM

Different conversation. I'd take Ghostzapper over the horse any day of the week and 37 times on Sunday. I'm just talking come home times in 10f races and just how freaking fast Mine that Bird came home the other day.

Antitrust32 05-05-2009 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
can't speak for everyone else...but i don't care how fast he came home the other day.

it may be a different day and different surface, but i'd take GZ over a one hit wonder any day.


to be fair to the horse and connections he's not exactly a one hit wonder, he was champion 2yo in Canada.. and I mean, horses can improve a lot at this time of the year and I think we'll have to watch him for the rest of the year before he can be called a one hit wonder. Do I expect him to be a super star? no.. but he probably can be competitive in some races, especially Grade 2 or 3 types. There are a handful of good horses at the top of the barrel this year, but besides them and the talented sprinters out there, the division is pretty weak, who's to say Mine That Bird cant have a solid year in the right spots? also he seems to like the poly track... and we all know how many stakes races are run on artificial surfaces..

And I really doubt slotdirt was comparing him outright to GZ, just comparing the final fractions which are very impressive for Mine that bird.

gales0678 05-05-2009 09:33 AM

the bottom line is he walked the first part of the race and then came home in the 47 and change that slot talks about - not that unlikely an occurence cosidering he had shown on his last race that he could run 45 and change

it just happened in different parts of the race that's all

slotdirt 05-05-2009 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
the bottom line is he walked the first part of the race and then came home in the 47 and change that slot talks about - not that unlikely an occurence cosidering he had shown on his last race that he could run 45 and change

it just happened in different parts of the race that's all

You cannot be serious.

slotdirt 05-05-2009 09:37 AM

I have to apologize for posting this many times in a thread that can't even spell the Kentucky Derby winner's name right. How hard is it to spell "mine" anyway? I was firmly on the side of abbreviating horses being more annoying than misspelling their names, but I might become a convert.

gales0678 05-05-2009 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
You cannot be serious.


why not - if he ran 4f in 45 and change and then tired at sunland , why couldn't he come home in 47 and change in the deby

he jogged the 1st half mile in the derby , didn't use much of his energy , why couldn't he have had 1 run in him ? he ran those opening fractions in the last race

it was just the opposite in the derby but since he walked the 1st half of the race he had plenty of energy left for the closing 47 and change

slotdirt 05-05-2009 10:04 AM

Have you watched the Sunland Derby? Mine(d) that Bird sat about sixth for the first 3/8's or so, moved up on the outside shortly after the half, then nosed his way in front at the top of the stretch only to fold like a cheap suit in the last 1/16th. He was outfinished badly by another horse (Kelly Leak) who basically chased Mine(d) that Bird for the first 3/4, then ran around Mine(d) that Bird like he was standing still. This is not a prep that generally would inspire one to believe they had just seen the Kentucky Derby winner, no matter what the fractions were.

gales0678 05-05-2009 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Have you watched the Sunland Derby? Mine(d) that Bird sat about sixth for the first 3/8's or so, moved up on the outside shortly after the half, then nosed his way in front at the top of the stretch only to fold like a cheap suit in the last 1/16th. He was outfinished badly by another horse (Kelly Leak) who basically chased Mine(d) that Bird for the first 3/4, then ran around Mine(d) that Bird like he was standing still. This is not a prep that generally would inspire one to believe they had just seen the Kentucky Derby winner, no matter what the fractions were.

i didn't say it made him the winner - i only said that the 1st 2 calls of that race were the fastest of any derby prep at 1 1/8 - he was part of that pace

now go to the derby - what did he run the 1st 4f in - maybe :50 mayber more ? does anyone have that info

he jogged around the track and came home in :47 and change , he had already shown in his last race he was capable of running that number for 4f

Antitrust32 05-05-2009 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'm not singling you out, but I keep reading this and it has me baffled. He was 2 year old champ in Canada....So what? Have you looked at some of those races?

And when that Canadian champ came here to run against America's best 2 year olds last year, he finished dead last. I love Canada as much as the next person and I know we are trying to come up with reasons why a horse that should have been 100-1 just romped in the Derby. But the 2 year old champ in Canada thing seems like a moot point.


hey its still an accomplishment and it still means he showed up for those races last year.. usually it takes a good horse to win 4 races in a row.. even if they are canadian races!

cakes44 05-05-2009 10:14 AM

Every horse in training can run that number for 4 furlongs. Running that number in the slop after running for 3/4 a mile already is what has everyone puzzled.


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