Derby Trail Forums
Page 2 of 3 < 1 2 3 >
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   I see big gaps back to 3rd. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28994)

gales0678 04-13-2009 10:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Jimmy Jerkens started training horses on his own in 1997. He's had a grand total of 2,343 starters and he shows a flat bet profit with them. It's basically almost unheard of stuff.

For a comparison - Todd Pletcher started training horses in 1996. He shows a career 17% loss on the betting dollar ... what most good trainers show.


As for Mullins ...

He started 4,577 horses since 1996 and he amazingly shows a flat bet profit. He's probably God's gift to training horses.

Perhaps the greatest training achievment was him winning back-to-back-to-back Santa Anita Derby's earlier this decade with three horrendously mediocre horses.

* Here's Buddy Gil running 7th at 7/1 in the Golden Gate Derby in '03....



Less than three months later he won the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins.


* Here's Castledale running 6th at 11/1 odds in the San Rafael in '04



Less than a month later he wins the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins next out.


* Here's Buzzard's Bay running 10th at 18/1 odds in the worst Risen Star Stakes of all-time.



Less than two months later he wins the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins.


Mullins and Jimmy Jerkens are not guys you want to dismiss when they have the best horse.
Drugs - what are Pletchers total startes from '96 on?

Also he must be pretty good , he had a filly win the oaks and the belmont stakes in the same year

The Indomitable DrugS 04-13-2009 10:32 AM
Slightly over 10K.

He's 0-for-23 in all 10 furlongs dirt stakes at Churchill Downs.

Travis Stone 04-13-2009 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Unexpected results can happen when the pace goes to an extreme .. (Lemons Forever last-to-first at 47/1) Giacomo (18th after 6fs to 1st at 50/1) but that won't happen in either race this year ... and neither pace should be a crawl either.
You don't think a horse like Regal Ransom could get away with some easy fractions? Not that he can hold on, but is he going to set the race up for closers? Unlike in the past, there are zero one dimensional speed balls - Keyed Entry, Spanish Chestnut, Songandaprayer types.

gales0678 04-13-2009 10:40 AM
so roughly over the same time he has started around 4x more horses than Jerkins and 2x more horses than Mullins

What are Jimmy's and jeff's stats at 10f in stakes races at CD , for fun's sake what are the chief's at CD in stakes races at 10f?

Was it Todd's fault that he ran into a monster in the derby a couple of year's ago when bluegrass cat ran 2nd? Are we to believe that one of the 2 magicians would have gotten Bluegrass Cat into the winner's circle that day?

the_fat_man 04-13-2009 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Indian Blessing should be 3/5 and Black Seventeen 5/2 ... cinch exacta.
Is this one a 'cinch' as well?

Danzig 04-13-2009 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Slightly over 10K.

He's 0-for-23 in all 10 furlongs dirt stakes at Churchill Downs.

but after dunkirk he'll be 1-24. :rolleyes: seriously, he'll be 0-24.

Travis Stone 04-13-2009 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
but after dunkirk he'll be 1-24. :rolleyes: seriously, he'll be 0-24.
You're all anti-Dunkirk but not pro nobody else. Being anti is easy, pro is not.

blackthroatedwind 04-13-2009 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Is this one a 'cinch' as well?

Surely this is beneath you?

gales0678 04-13-2009 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Slightly over 10K.

He's 0-for-23 in all 10 furlongs dirt stakes at Churchill Downs.

so we are talking less than 1% of his total startes in his lifetime , do you think this sample size is big eneough to get an accuarte picture of the trainer's ablilty ?

the_fat_man 04-13-2009 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Surely this is beneath you?
I couldn't resist. Nothing gives me more pleasure than when one of the SPEED DARLINGS loses. So it was more about the PLUG and high number horses in general, rather than the pick.

The Indomitable DrugS 04-13-2009 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Is this one a 'cinch' as well?
Black Seventeen had to be walked off the track by his exercise rider in training a day or two before the race - and Indian Blessing basically lost the race at the start.

Like I said - it is horse racing.

The Indomitable DrugS 04-13-2009 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gales0678
so we are talking less than 1% of his total startes in his lifetime , do you think this sample size is big eneough to get an accuarte picture of the trainer's ablilty ?
No it's not.

I wish there was a way I could buy a bottle of tard repellent to spray on myself and make you go away.

the_fat_man 04-13-2009 11:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Black Seventeen had to be walked off the track by his exercise rider in training a day or two before the race - and Indian Blessing basically lost the race at the start.

Like I said - it is horse racing.
I understand. But I got a huge kick out of watching the PLUG HANG in the lane when it appeared she was going to zoom by, bad start and all. She does real nice when she's the only speed on speed favoring tracks, however. :rolleyes:

The Indomitable DrugS 04-13-2009 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Surely this is beneath you?
It could have been worse. He could have brought up Pyro.

But that wouldn't have been useful in his habit of trying to pigeonholing me as a figure player. Because the figure horse romped in that race.

the_fat_man 04-13-2009 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
It could have been worse. He could have brought up Pyro.

But that wouldn't have been useful in his habit of trying to pigeonholing me as a figure player. Because the figure horse romped in that race.
What frustrates me most about you, and, in a somewhat similar sense, BTW, is that you're a superior race watcher who is nonetheless influenced by numbers.

This influence might not be as significant as it would be for someone without your 'other' skills but it's there nonetheless. Anybody can make figures, and some even excel at it, kudos to them for it, but your other skills are what distinguishes you from them. I'd bet that you could do equally as well just watching races and keeping good notes. Can't say that about too many others here.

Bobby Fischer 04-13-2009 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Who cares how or why others handicap races?
I would like your skillset more if you would place a little more emphasis on unknown first time starters.

gales0678 04-13-2009 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
No it's not.

I wish there was a way I could buy a bottle of tard repellent to spray on myself and make you go away.

obviously one of these 23 was a sacrifical lamb as well (i'm sure there were a few others but don't know all the runners)- keyed entry if i remember correctly - so sometimes hisotrical data just needs to be explained so that everyone can get a complete picture

just throwing out 0 fers when some of the horses entered were entered for a specific reason (in the above case being a rabbit) doesn't help the folks to get the whole picture

another one of the 0 for 23's was a horse who ran 2nd to a horse that was "a lock " for the derby accoridng to some here, but maybe just maybe the chief or jimmy might have moved bluegrass cat up eneough to not have made that winenr a "lock" - whose to know

The Indomitable DrugS 04-13-2009 12:14 PM
I only mentioned that stat to try and annoy you.

I don't think it means much obviously.

gales0678 04-13-2009 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I only mentioned that stat to try and annoy you.

I don't think it means much obviously.

ok coach


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:56 AM.
Page 2 of 3 < 1 2 3 >
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.