NYRA site says "All Stakes $400k guaranteed P4."

I'll bet the Bay Shore and Excelsior only:Yano and Giant Moon

Not sure I see the appeal of Giant Moon. The Benzel horse looks like the value in that race but I'll have to take a look at his trip in the Stymie first.

Giant Moon has next to no chance.

Agreed. I was just trying to be nice for a change. . .

I'll be surprised if Capt. Candyman Can doesn't win the Bay Shore.

NT

You're probably right. . . which makes the PK4 basically unplayable.

In my opinion, it's always nice to help someone not lose their money.

Then why bet?

I don't get what you mean.

You're "helping" someone lose their money in a way when you make a winning bet. . . or at least profiting off their loss. . . I guess from your perspective as a public handicapper it's different. . .

Of course you profit from the losses of others......but you don't help them lose. They will lose regardless of whether or not someone else wins or even bets.

But not if you change their opinions. Like I said in my edit above - I'm sure you have different considerations as a public handicapper. It's also probably not worth thinking of things on such a small scale when you consider the size of pools, etc. Don't mind my ramblings. . . just trying to avoid writing a paper. . .

People should bet on their own opinions.....even if they're as bad as Giant Moon in the Excelsior.

I've never been a particular fan of Giant Moon ( as we discussed here last year ) and his last race was particularly mediocre.

West Side Bernie running again?? Geez

Capt. Candy Man is not money in the bank. He was outclassed in his last race but take a look back at the Hutch. Those horses came back to run up the track in their next races. Beating Hello Broadway and Break Water Edison might have deserved kudos in November but not in a slow paced 7f race at Gulfstream in February.

Taqurab will go to the front and get the lead and might be tough to catch. Not For Silver ran against a speed favoring Laurel track and cutting back might be a good thing for him. I think Capt Candy Man is more hype than anything and is the type of horse you want to take a chance against.
I might include him in my pick 4 but it will be a defensive play.

The Excelsior does not have a clear cut favorite any one of four could win the race. The Wood looks like a Gotham II which the top two placing horses switching final positions. The Carter has the favorites as the speed and this race looks like there will be a pace meltdown. Tale of Ekati, Kodiak Kowboy, or even Ah Day could close to win.

This ALL stakes pick 4 has potential to pay a pretty penny if things break right.

It would be a shame if West Side Bernie keeps Dunkirk out of the Kentucky Derby. If I owned a top quality race horse I would skip the Breeders Cup and point to the Delta Jackpot.

Honestly, Pletcher knew the game, he gambled on Hallandale, and lost. If you don't have enough graded earnings to make the Derby, chances are, you probably don't deserve to be in the Derby, and Dunkirk is no exception.

It's a good sequence, not sure if it's a good betting opportunity, but good racing.

um, Dunkirk really deserves to be in the Derby.