Derby Trail Forums - Bettors....what would you do?

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I would be shocked if Artie goes off at 4/5 in a 5 horse field like that one. No way Jose. I say 3/5 at he very most. Most likely 1/2 or 2/5. Not a horrible field by any means but you are talking about one of the best mile horses on the turf in training.

There's the odd analysis and then theirs the horse race and wagering angle. I just don't see Artie the lock everyone else is and think there's some real compitition in this race from a few horses.

As someone else said, if I'm betting $25 or whatever I'm not looking to make $25, I'm looking for more value in a race where I can get better odds and more return. I'd look to put that money into exactas or pcik threes. I rather hit less races and make more money. Granted Artie will be 1st or 2nd most likely but too many times low prices favorites disappointed, especially at Saratoga in big races.

So I would invest the $25 this way:

$4 for beer
$3 for hotdog
$18 in pick threes

That way you know you get some return if you loose the races and have a chance at hitting for much more money!

Spyder from SC

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Right. It's more of a case of what you THINK Artie's odds will be. If you are convinced that he will go off no lower than 4-5, then you would want the Pinny prop. If you think he will go off at around 3-5, then in doesn't matter much which way you make the bet. If you think he will go off at 1-2 or lower, then you'd want to bet the other horses at the track.

If you don't have an opinion on what Artie will go off at, then this kind of analysis isn't helpful to you.

Anyway, I was interested in your question because I like comparing different ways to make the same bet. If you can make the same bet 2 different ways, this gives you another way to get an edge. See http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...t/Quinella.htm , for example.

--Dunbar

1. I can't bet quinellas in Va
2. My mind isn't sharp enough to follow all that stuff.
3. Sounds to me that a quinella is nothing but an exacta box.

Dunbar.....just browsing through Pinnacle....looking at golf matchups...my maximum bet....$2K

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

1. I can't bet quinellas in Va
2. My mind isn't sharp enough to follow all that stuff.
3. Sounds to me that a quinella is nothing but an exacta box.

1. GPK, the article is only relevant to the times that quinella betting is offered in the same race as exactas. This is definitely a small minority of races.

2. Yes, it is. It only requires easy arithmetic.

All you need to understand is "An alternate form of the Q-Test would be to ask if Ex*Er/(Ex+Er) > Q". Ex and Er are the payoffs for the exacta and exacta reverse, and Q is the quinella payoff. When the left side is bigger than Q, it is better to create the bet by using exactas.

If you look at the one day at Santa Anita in the examples, you'll see that sometimes the quinellas paid 22% more than a bet constructed from the exacta and exacta revers. And sometimes it was the other way around.

Anytime you have a choice of two ways of betting, and one might be 22% better than the other, that's good info to have.

3. A quinella is different than an exacta box. An exacta box payoff will generally depend on which of the 2 horses wins. But you can make exacta bets that look like a quinella by adjusting the amount bet on each of the 2 exactas so that the payoff will be almost the same. By doing this, you create a "pseudo-quinella". The article explains how to tell which is better, the quinella or the "pseudo-quinella".

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Dunbar.....just browsing through Pinnacle....looking at golf matchups...my maximum bet....$2K

My limit for these is about 2.8K; just about the same ratio to your limits as on the horse bets.

--Dunbar

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just start calling you "big money":D

Note To Self.....listen To Gut Next Time.