I think you badly are missing the point.

Even at 31/1 odds going into the race - I didn't bet A.P. Arrow or use him on any tickets.

However, if I had been able to forecast the savage nature of the pace and how the race was run - I think he would have been a virtual lock to finish on the board that race - and most certainly defeat Past The Point and Wanderin Boy.

I didn't like Devine Park at all going in - but the way the race was run - for him to return from a layoff at 9fs - he became even that much more of an extremely high percentage proposition to run a non-effort.

I made only a single bet in the race - a Curlin over Wanderin Boy straight exacta.

However, it's crystal clear that from an analytical standpoint - Past The Point is the horse who comes out of this race with the surprisingly good performance and A. P. Arrow - more so than Curlin - comes out of this race with the surprisingly bad performance.

Another horse whose form post-Dubai is worse than it was pre-Dubai. Look at the PPs. Before Dubai, he was decent (except on Poly), but he's really not competitive at this level anymore.

I just would like an honest answer that if you owned Curlin, you wouldn't say wtf and just run in the BC and hell be damned.

According to the Beyer fig makers the sprint varient for the one turn King's Bishop was -13 but the two turn varient in the next races as + 1.

Hence Curlin runs a 112 and First Defence runs a 109.

The -13 would put Hello Broadway at an 87
Freedom Bay should get a 99.
Delta Sea would get an 88 and that seems a bit high.

The Beyer guys are wrong sometimes and you can make money if you believe they are wrong.

It's been pretty clear for awhile that Jackson is making a statement about taking a stab at the all time earnings mark besides proving that he welcomes a chance to take on BB. Since the poly issue precludes a meeting at the BC, a more creative answer to luring both entrants to the same race this year seems unlikely unless some carnival like match race suddenly becomes a possibility. The Classic is a bad idea if yesterday's performance is the best Curlin has left in him this year.....He hung around longer than most of the others who had any measure of success perhaps it's time to take a step back and see how the next month or so unfolds rather than pushing him further right now

I was really glad to see him race. I've seen him on the track several times since he's been here, and I went to see him in the paddock. I hadn't seen him that close up since the BC.

Anyway, the Beyer # in my mind is a moot point. I don't see it being used as publicity in his stallion ad, nor do I see it being used as a reference point for any horses coming out of the race. Sure, we can argue all day long, and the more we argue, the more things we'll find to argue about.

As far as his performance and what's next. I am not a trainer, nor do I play on on the internet, but from my point of view -- what I saw, I am not convinced he liked the track. I was there and watched the race very closely. I had an excellent view. More importantly, I heard several comments after the race that inferred the same thing -- not internet trainers or self proclaimed experts -- people who make their living in the business and who have qualified opinions. I also don't think being in a bit tight in the first turn helped, but he's older, more mature, had plenty of time to settle, settle in, etc. The pace and trip was another factor.

The way the race shaped up, I didn't expect that impressive move where he would eat up ground, power by, and so on. Didn't seem to be that kind of race to me -- and again, the track might have been a factor.

About where he goes next -- sounds to me like Jackson has put everything in play, at least to some extent, albeit small. If he doesn't seem like the kind of horse who would take to the poly/synthetic/etc. -- why send him? To be a "sportsman"? For the good of the game? Same old, age old, been there done that arguement. If the BC is in play, why not send him early, give him every chance. If not, so be it. The money title is nice but doesn't make him any greater in comparison to the greatest horses of all-time.

Eric

Very true. I might look through biased glasses to think this, but if the well is running a bit dry or whatever, yes, bad idea.

Eric

anyone who disagree's does not understand horse racing... ANYONE, what he is saying is so simple and correct its hard to imagine how you guys are knocking him

DrugS and I have a disagreement. He doesn't like the figure, in part because he thinks A. P. Arrow ran an unusually bad race, whereas I'm more into buying the figure, in part because I think A. P. Arrow ran a characteristically mediocre race, while the top three all ran above average races.

I still greatly value DrugS' opinion. And I still consistently laugh at yours.

I had pictured that Divine Park would run the race that Pass The Point ran, and vice versa. Pass The Point ran huge. The more I think about it, I don't believe it was anything other than the usual solid performance from Curlin and not really indicative of any kind of regression.

The bigger question mark of the race to me is what happened to Divine Park? Whether you liked him or not, seems I was the only one to like him going into the race, wrong I was. I don't think anyone would have expected such a non race from him as what he showed Saturday, obviously he never looked comfortable over the track. It's one thing to have first run on the leader and fade, which could be explained, but the horse never even raised a hoof in the race. To me the same question mark of how far he wants to go still exists after the Woodward, as this race cannot be taken at face value from such a non effort.

LOL :D

I only wish that jackson would have come "over the top" and challenge ivrone and dutrow to match his 5 mill in a match race on the dirt at a 1 mile and 1/2

i wouldn't give him any excuse, I'd say he's not ready for big-time 2 turn races. I also had expected more, but it wasn't there.

You may still get your wish once Jackson realizes he wants no part of rested improving well bred talent in the BC prior to the orgy that is Curlin's future....

He seemingly wasnt right physically. A month ago he was at a clinic getting checked out for a mystery ailment.

I still can't believe Wanderin Boy held on and Loose Leaf failed to keep coming.

The pace was real race horse time. Robbie was worried and seemed to whip Curlin more for this one than he did for the DWC. not because he was concerned about getting the win but a bad beyer fig