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-   -   Eight Belles post # prediction thread (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22016)

johnny pinwheel 04-29-2008 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
She has zero shot to hit the board regardless of post

i agree. dumb move by connections. "derby fever" and all the talk of the weak field. she beat 3 horses last time out and the fractions were slow. hope she makes it or it might be the last time she races. i've seen this disaster played out before, unfortunately

ddthetide 04-29-2008 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Unbridled's Song has never had a son, let alone a daughter hit the board in a TC race. What makes this filly any different than the other thousand or so UBS's that couldnt do it?

because most of these colts aren't that good.

Thunder Gulch 04-29-2008 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Unbridled's Song has never had a son, let alone a daughter hit the board in a TC race. What makes this filly any different than the other thousand or so UBS's that couldnt do it?

How about Boundary? Pulpit? Tiznow? I'm not in love with UBS at this distance, but almost all of them have miler pedigrees and I'd bet UBS hasn't had many offsping- male or female- that are this stout. I actually look at pedigree more than most when considering stretchouts, so I know she's up against it....while I actually do think she rates a shot, part of this is an inside jab at BT for loving Court Vision.

Cannon Shell 04-29-2008 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
How about Boundary? Pulpit? Tiznow? I'm not in love with UBS at this distance, but almost all of them have miler pedigrees and I'd bet UBS hasn't had many offsping- male or female- that are this stout. I actually look at pedigree more than most when considering stretchouts, so I know she's up against it....while I actually do think she rates a shot, part of this is an inside jab at BT for loving Court Vision.

I'm not sure i follow your logic. How exactly do you know how stout this horse is considering she has never even run 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4? When a $150k stallion who has stood for 10 years hasnt had a single on the board finish in the TC series, that says plenty about any offspring of that sire.

31lengths 04-29-2008 08:02 PM

if she starts from the 7 post, she'll win.....so I'm guessing the 1 post.

mclem10011 04-29-2008 08:08 PM

She's 12 in the Oaks.....
 
So I'll guess 14 for the Derby.

Thunder Gulch 04-29-2008 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I'm not sure i follow your logic. How exactly do you know how stout this horse is considering she has never even run 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4? When a $150k stallion who has stood for 10 years hasnt had a single on the board finish in the TC series, that says plenty about any offspring of that sire.

Kinda like Boundary. He was known for 2yo's and first timers, but I think he only produced one millionaire in 15 years.

philcski 04-29-2008 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I'm not sure i follow your logic. How exactly do you know how stout this horse is considering she has never even run 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4? When a $150k stallion who has stood for 10 years hasnt had a single on the board finish in the TC series, that says plenty about any offspring of that sire.

Since we've spent significant time at sales look at these beasts I know you dislike UBS as much as I do, the most overrated stallion of this generation, but something is different with this filly. He's notorious for fragile types (of his last Derby hopefuls since '02 Rockport Harbor, Value Plus, Song of the Sword, Eurosilver, Domestic Dispute, Buddha(:D)- only two actually made the race), and she seems much more stout. The not running 9F or against boys is a huge strike against but she might just have been born in the right year to compete. This crop is AWFUL.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
Kinda like Boundary. He was known for 2yo's and first timers, but I think he only produced one millionaire in 15 years.

In Boundary's defense, he's never, ever gotten top mares. He's gotten a few good ones over the years (I'm an admitted Pomeroy goo-goo, of course)

Oaklawnfan 04-30-2008 05:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Think it's more distaste for the owner than it is the horse. Rick Porter's fan club doesnt seem to have stretched into these ranks.

It's really not him, it's that damn bow-tie.:mad:

Danzig 04-30-2008 06:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan
It's really not him, it's that damn bow-tie.:mad:

combined with the garish red sport coats.

Cajungator26 04-30-2008 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Since we've spent significant time at sales look at these beasts I know you dislike UBS as much as I do, the most overrated stallion of this generation, but something is different with this filly. He's notorious for fragile types (of his last Derby hopefuls since '02 Rockport Harbor, Value Plus, Song of the Sword, Eurosilver, Domestic Dispute, Buddha(:D)- only two actually made the race), and she seems much more stout. The not running 9F or against boys is a huge strike against but she might just have been born in the right year to compete. This crop is AWFUL.

Honestly, Phil ... I've never seen her up close and in person, but she looks like a pretty typical Unbridled's Song to me. Not that it really matters if she's fast enough to overcome it, but she's not an attractive moving horse at all. It seems to me that she's the type that would expend more energy to get up to speed than others. I'd have a hard time using her for that very reason alone, but now that I've said that - she'll win. Sigh.

Uncle Daddy 04-30-2008 10:44 AM

My guess in 18th ahead of a gassed Bob Black Jack and somebody else who gets bounced around bad at the break and ST turn. Tough day for the guy with the big hat

Linny 04-30-2008 11:14 AM

They get 6th choice and will go to the Derby.

smuthg 04-30-2008 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
They get 6th choice and will go to the Derby.

Where did you see the selection order? thanks...

Oaklawnfan 04-30-2008 11:45 AM

It's on it's own thread. Steve B. had the post. By the way, are you still on her Amigo? I guess she can break into the air at any post.:D

HaloWishingwell 04-30-2008 08:38 PM

Regardless of results let's hope we don't have another THREE RING castastrophe.

Danzig 04-30-2008 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell
Regardless of results let's hope we don't have another THREE RING castastrophe.

???

miraja2 04-30-2008 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
???

Listen, the post is already bold and italicized. Now you want it to make sense too?
I think that is asking a bit much.

Danzig 04-30-2008 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Listen, the post is already bold and italicized. Now you want it to make sense too?
I think that is asking a bit much.

you may be right.

SniperSB23 04-30-2008 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Listen, the post is already bold and italicized. Now you want it to make sense too?
I think that is asking a bit much.

:D Classic Derby Trail. Where do we find all these posters that offer nothing of substance yet feel the need to post in some ridiculous "unique" style?


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