Since when did you become such a results queen?

I'm not sure he'd have beaten Sierra Sunset in the Rebal - SS didn't have Silver Edition pestering him the whole way like in the Southwest - but I'd say it was a coinflip between him and SS for the Rebel win if he goes there.

In order to be the Derby favorite over Big Brown - he'd have needed to win the Rebel, and wheel back and win the Ark Derby impressively. That was unlikely.

Denis Of Cork has four career races - and three Beyers in the 80's. Come on Hossy - he was no killer.

Basically, all that happened was that the connections decided to pass the Rebel because they didn't want to run him two more times in a short window before the Derby. Fine, if they think they have a horse who can compete in all three legs of the triple crown series, I don't blame them.

Now, you are left with The Wood or The Illi Derby as your options.

You pass on the bigger tougher field, and go where you will be the odds on favorite in a short field.

What is it you disagree with most - not putting in two more starts before the TC Series or opting for the Hawthorne race over the Wood?

Unless you can predict unforeseen pace scenerios and track biases long in advance - the horse was spotted correctly.

I hear ya - and I thought it was pretty amusing how they changed plans every other day.

If he just wins the Illi Derby at odds on - isn't he in a 3-way scramble with Pyro and CJ for 2nd choice in the Derby? - and isn't he better suited to see out all three races in the series?

Plans change at some point. I don't think they babied the horse at all. They felt the Illinois Derby was the most logically race. Why send him to New York to face War Pass, why send him to Oaklawn and face a 12 horse field. He raced in a Grade II that has produced some fine runners in the Derby. The plan didn't work out for them. It was a nice try and DofCork may get into the Derby. Time will only tell.

So you are saying in order to have good management, the plan you lay out has to work in the world of horse racing. Nothing in this business is 100% certain. Just because a plan didn't work, doesnt mean it was poor management. Correlation is not causation.

...
You seem to equate failure with a bad idea. It's as if the world of probability doesn't exist. It's like saying every horse that doesn't win the Derby is the victim of poor choices made along the way.

A good try that doesn't work may be known as a failure in the business world, but it's not necessarily scorned by successful investors or successful gamblers. The outcome is secondary to whether the logic was sound. If I'm confident the logic was sound, I'll do the exact same thing next time a similar situation comes around.

I understand you think that the logic was highly UNsound in the handling of Denis of Cork. But offering the outcome as proof that the plan was bad is faulty thinking, IMO.

--Dunbar

IMO, the only mistake they made was not raising hell after the post position draw.

They let themselves become victims.

i don't understand why the went to new york and then illinois. if they wanted to skip the rebel, fine. but he had a win at oaklawn, and the ark derby pays a million. even without a win at a track he already ran well on, he'd still get a much better check for hitting the board then he would anywhere else.
at any rate, it's done now.