| The Indomitable DrugS |
11-27-2007 01:28 PM |
The Cigar Mile was basically a classic circumstantial race - you had only two horses in the race who could so much as stand up - and in the match-race like situation the winner owned every circumstantial edge possible over the 2nd place finisher.
Daaher really proved nothing in this race - beyond the fact that he's held the form he showed in his two prior big figure wins earned under more legit circumstances.
After his big figure Saratoga win - which came over a track labeled good and one race removed from a Fort Erie loss....it was hard not to be somewhat skeptic about him becoming a top horse.
Like Cannon said, losing at Fort Erie can kind of be something of a buzzkill - at least these days anyway. After all, the great Northern Dancer suffered the worst defeat in his career at the hands of Ramblin Rod in the '63 Vandal Stakes at Fort Erie...Dance Smartley fell victim at 2/5 in the '90 Ontario Debutante...but who really gives a crap about obscure Fort Erie trivia anyway?
Daaher addressed all the questions anyone could possibly have had about him with a 110 Beyer fast track win - without the aid of any kind of favorable trip in the Jerome.
Midnight Lute certainly lost nothing in defeat - another tremendous race he ran under impossible circumstances. Any idea of him somehow having distance limitations exposed in defeat are a little bit comical. He's only ran at a mile or beyond TWICE in his life - all of three weeks apart - and his two tough trip defeats in both Strub and San Fernando were at least as good, if not better, than a pair of surrounding seven furlong races in The Malibu one start prior and The Commonwealth one start post.
A lot of people made a big deal about the HUGE sheet figure numbers Midnight Lute earned in his last two - but his sheet figure in the Cigar will easily beat Daaher's. Daaher did win by a margin of 2.5 lengths - but on the sheet figure scale Midnight Lute carried 2.88 lengths more in weight - and was 2 paths wider on the turn. Which means Midnight Lute's sheet fig for the Cigar will actually comeback exactly 2.38 lengths faster than the winner.
While the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin may say Midnight Lute ran 2.38 lengths faster - they really miss the boat because they DON'T take pace, trip, and trainer preperation into consideration.
And I believe Dahher had giant edges in all three categories.
* Pace: There was only one other race on the card run at the same one-mile distance. In that race, Mike Luzzi was able to get fractions of 23.27 and 46.57 enroute to a blowout wire-to-wire win on a 12/1 shot 2yo maiden. Dahher went just 0.17 seconds faster to the quarter mile and 0.25 seconds faster to the half mile. Dahher posted almost identical early fractions to those turned in by a wire-to-wire 2yo 12/1 shot MSW winner...and that maiden had never made a lead at any call in his three lifetime races prior.
* Trip: Not only did Dahher get away with absurdly soft fractions - he did so while totally unpressured and rating kindly on the lead in a soft field. Meanwhile, Midnight Lute was understandably pulling hard in the early stages, while rating behind that soft pace....while on a two furlong stretch-out, and going sprint-to-route for a trainer who keeps their feet to the flames in the AM..and shows a huge 55% loss on the dollar trainer stat with spr-to-route stretchouts.
*Trainer Prep: Much like with Discreet Cat last year - the Cigar Mile was the goal since summer for the winner - who raced in a Saratoga allowance and the Jerome in his two prior starts. Kiaran McLaughlin is as skilled as any trainer I've ever seen in my lifetime. He got the hapless Closing Argument to almost win the KY Derby as the 20th choice in the betting, he took a star from Urugay (think South American version of Louisiana Downs at best) and turned him into a Horse of the Year. He took a hanging Euro and won the Filly and Mare Turf - he is to Fernando Jara and Alan Garcia what Randy Moss was to an OLD Randall Cunningham and Jeff George. While Dahher stayed in New York prepping for the race under McLaughlin...
Midnight Lute was doing a lot of shipping and had the Breeders Cup Sprint as his main goal - I doubt the three cross country ships in less than 3 months were a big deal. What was a big deal was the fact that Baffert REALLY PUT IT ON this horse in the workouts leading up to the BC. Less than a week before the BC Sprint, Midnight Lute worked offically 57.60 for five furlongs - though Baffert pubicly said he caught the work in 56 and change. It was reported in the DRF that Baffert was screaming "Go! Go! Go!" to the excersize rider on the walkie talkie during that work. That work was Clearly the result of the fear that long striding Midnight Lute might find the six furlongs of the BC Sprint way too sharp for him. Thus, put all the speed you can in him six days before the race. He was trained perfectly for a fast paced 6f race considering the distance concerns - the way he was rank in the early stages of the Cigar...I think he has an excuse for wanting to do more.
All in all, Daaher basically ran the same excellent race for the 3rd time in a row. His fig was 4 points higher than last out - but his circumstances were atleast that much better.
Midnight Lute was a classic case of a vulnerable 1/2 shot with superior form. He did nothing wrong....and I would back him as the more likely winner of the two if they met at a mile in a fairly run race.
Dahher is lightly raced - has great developmental breeding - a great developmental trainer - and has every right to improve. Midnight Lute has had past breathing and soundness issues for a trainer who's horses sometimes burn out. Room for improvement is the one and only area where Dahher has ML - and he has him good in that regard.
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