CP West :rolleyes:

on another note...

I've like Street Sense since the BC Juvenile. (had a nice win bet and hit the trifecta)

I just don't think there is enough in this race to get him there. The race will be decided on the back stretch and won by the 1/16th pole. [Of course this is before I see the PPs.]

As far as the cost.. there is more to gain than the $5mil purse. There is stud fees. I know they already made their deals ahead of time but you know the other people involved would love to say, "winner of BC Juvenile/Classic"
I would think Darley or whoever would pay the fees if they could set the race up for their future stud.

but I think a lot of things that never happen.

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt? Who won that one?
If the track has a ridiculous bias like it did earlier this year that will be one thing, but if they get it fair, I don't like Hard Spun and/or Lawyer Ron. If it is a merry-go-round, they could be the exacta.

Wanderin Boy was in the same situation last year and opted to run in a non-BC stakes on the undercard instead. In year's past you probably would have just seen Corinthian and Gotcha Gold rest for the Cigar Mile instead of going in the Classic.

He was on the lead but he was pressed through faster fractions than he would have desired. He should have an easier time of it here unless Lawyer Ron gets headstrong.

Keep in mind the 19th and 20th horses early got up to finish 1st and 4th and Curlin came from fairly deep. It was hardly a race where the fractions played in the favor of the speed horses.

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race - outsprinting some confirmed sprinters, who stalked from 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and finished 17th, 19th, and 20th....while Street Sense passed 17 horses without leaving the rail in what will go down as the dreamiest trip in modern Kentucky Derby history.

Assuming everyone breaks clean, John Velazquez on Lawyer Ron is the only one who knows how much early pressure Hard Spun will face.

Anyone who's seen JRV ride in similar situations all these years knows Hard Spun will get a free pass on the lead - as long as LR is able to track from the outside while more than a half length clear of pressure from the 3rd place runner.

That is unless JRV is instructed by Pletcher to do something else.

From what I could gather on Monmouth Parks website, there were 19 stake routes run on the dirt at Monmouth Park this year - the leader after the first call won 11 of them. Three of those wins at double digit odds.

If the track is like it was for much of the summer, and HS and LR both avoid going head-to-head, I believe they will make up the exacta. The real question will be which of the two will win...if the August version of LR shows up he will have little trouble wearing HS down in the final furlong. If not, Hard Spun can be very brave on the lead and might be an elusive target for LR and the others.

If the track is fair, HS and LR will still have a tactical edge over the rest of the field - but, they will both be very tough if there tactical edge is compounded with a track that totally suits them and works against their opposition.

This won't happen very often through your love of the silent kitten, but i agree with you here.

Oh, my instinct says CP West will still be running on BC Day.

You are probably right on that. I had forgotten about the Iselin and was thinking he hadn't won yet at a mile and an eighth. If he is almost unbeatable then why the heck are they running him for $1 million instead of $5 million?

No doubt.

There is a contrarian train of thought that racing officials might be stupid enough to try and play with the track to make it "fair" and you will end up getting a dead rail like on Haskell Day in 2006...when something like seven or eight races were won by the horse breaking from the extreme outside most post position.

If anyone remembers, Prado was on next-out Super Derby winner Strong Contender in that race, and had an inside post. If you didn't know that Prado was hellbent on getting as wide as he could because of the way the track was....you'd have to think he totally lost his mind with the way he rode SC.

If they screw with the track - than you really have to wonder what will happen in a race like Juv Fillies...a race that is over-flowing with sprint speed and begging to be won by something who makes the final run from well off the pace.

Because they'd rather run at a distance they believe there horse is better suited to - while facing lesser opposition.

If there was no Dirt Mile, it's safe to assume they'd have taken a flyer and tried the Classic.

Still it is a five to one ratio in terms of purse. That would be like skipping the Travers for a $200,000 race when you think you had a shot in the Travers. Winning the BC Dirt Mile is going to pay roughly the same as 3rd in the Classic with 2nd paying less than 4th in the Classic and 3rd paying less than 5th in the Classic. Sure seems to me that they don't have much confidence in their horse at 10 furlongs.

To run in the Classic, I believe it costs something like 50K to pre-enter and 75K to enter.

Gottcha Gold is a one-way speed, all or nothing type of horse. I believe he's made 22 starts in his career and has just 3 seconds and 1 third place finish....he goes as fast as he can for as far as he can.

I think you are missing that when you say if he finishes 3rd in the Classic he gets the same money as if he wins the Mile.

He's the type of horse that throws in the towell once he's passed....and don't forget he beat Lawyer Ron over this track in the Salvator Mile....however, LR was cutting into the margin and surely would have won with more ground to work with.

AGS also has tatical speed along with LR. between the 2 i think one of them will keep the pressure on hard spun so he dosen't get a uncontested lead and roll away with this race

AGS has Gomez (who loves to rate and is widely considered a strong finishing jockey) and AGS is a more effective horse when he rates. He's hung bad in a few races he's used his speed.

In the Haskell he wasn't far behind HS early, but that's only because Hard Spun had a VERY costly early stumble when the gates opened from his outside post, and he was taken under a hold to avoid dueling with hopeless one-way speed Cable Boy.

The only horse who can press Hard Spun is LR.

i agree, it all comes down to if they make the track fair-street sense will have a shot. if they leave it like its been all year-speed i'll take AGS to pull off the upset. AGS sit and stalk and let a rank LR and HS wear themselves down and go by

He still hasn't finished his last race?

It's a great race as it is , but I would prefer 12 or 13 horses to bet on.

Would much prefer to see Student Council , Sun King, Diamond Stripes, Gotcha Gold/Grasshopper/Going Ballistic as well.

Slightly better odds and a super pays a lot more if one of the "deadweight" horses sucks up for 4th.

Encourage a full field at the expense of having each contender be a true win candidate.