Under the assumption that Rags isn't going...it's either Hard Spun or Curlin. None of the other "contenders" on the list have proven they can beat these two.

Because I don't think some of the other "contenders" have faced them.

Why do you say Rags has a shot? She hasn't faced them before? Has she even faced boys before?

I don't like him at a mile and a half. This is no 'normal' race...

Pedigree says so.

No, but once again, her pedigree says so and talent wise, she's got just as much there. (IMO.)

She's shown more ability than any of the other contenders. I think she could easily run top 3, even have a shot at winning. She's improved off of every race.

I am liking

WildCrazyGuy right now!! Hopefully 10/1??

I liked her in the Oaks, but I can't remember what her PPs looked like. So I won't comment on that as my brain is fried from the heat today. I just don't think she has a shot at winning. Hitting the board? Maybe.

Like I said these are just my original thoughts on this race. Once it shapes up I will more than likely change my opinions. I am fickle that way. :)

Although, Tizzy is probably going to be my pick.

You don't think a Tiznow colt can get a mile and a half? Shame on you! Hee hee. Just teasing.

His mama is a great granddaughter of a triple crown winner ya know.

The early DRF PPs are up. Rags to Riches is in there if you want to check her out. http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2007/pps/pps.html

hard spun is bred for 12f...of course his running style may or may not be conducive to the distance, but i'd put his chances up there ahead of much of the field.

the top three in the derby finished in the top three in the preakness. since one of them isn't going saturday, let's go with the fourth in the derby....

I do know :p and actually really like his pedigree because of the presence of Crozier in the 5th generation, BUT don't like him at a mile and a half.

Distance will be only be problem for Curlin, Digger, CQ(if he goes) and maybe Time Squared


The rest of them should have no problem getting the distance at all

None of them will have a problem getting the distance... it's just a matter of how long it will take them to hit the finish line. :D

I read Tberg was looking to run in the 6f race on the undercard.


Maybe Jaime loses her mind again and we see him try to get 1 1/2 miles:eek:

To quote btw.....where is his fast race?
I think he will be overbet because he came wide at CD and looked like he was gaining a ton of ground, when in fact he simply passed a bunch of tired horses. That race disguises the fact that in both the La Derby, and the Fl Derby he made up no ground whatsoever despite the fact that they went a half in :46.2 in front of him in both races. I don't think he has much of a chance. He doesn't have a great 12f pedigree and doesn't seem to have much of anything going for him really.
The filly seems like the most likely winner to me at this point, but again, without knowing the exact composition of the field, it is difficult to say for sure.

Why do you think that distance will be a problem for Time Squared? By FuPeg and out of an AP Indy mare seems good to me.
Now, running fast will certainly be a problem for Time Squared (because he is a slow horse) but the distance shouldn't be.

Was going to post the same thing until I continued scrolling to the bottom of the page. . .

Why?

Was it because of the way he got his last 1/8th in 11 and change in the Arkansas Derby? Or was it because of how empty he seemed through the late stages of the Preakness....after having his ears ridden off for most of the race?

I'm pretty sure you said it yourself (maybe it was someone else)- Curlin came to Assmussen as a front-runner with a miler's pedigree and has become some what of a closer type who has been able to get added distance. . . At what point (or distance) will this catch up with him? I'm not saying he's not the most talented horse in this field, but at the supposedly obselete distance of the Belmont he may be compromised while other horses should/could enjoy the added ground. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking because I don't bet 4/5 shots. . .

I did say that. You're correct.

However, I have no doubts he can see out 12 furlongs against the field he will face on Saturday....and I say that based on his recent form....which trumps pedigree.

He's an example of a horse who has outrun his pedigree...and while the fact that Asmussen has undertrained him worked against Curlin's best chances in the KY Derby and Preakness....it will actually play to his advantage in this race.