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10 pnt move up 05-21-2007 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SundayStar
chelokee getting a lower than expected makes sense to me. the jockey decided to closely track stonehouse because letting him have a loose lead was the only way chelokee was gonna lose that race. the strategy worked out, giving him the win but i think it cost him(chelokee) some of his late kick. he came home pretty slow.

that tells me he is not very good

hockey2315 05-21-2007 12:40 PM

The Preakness number makes sense to me because it's right around what Street Sense ran in the Derby. . . I can't really see either horse jumping up 7 or so points in 2 weeks. . . I do, however, think the Diabolical/Talent Search numbers were way too low. . . They both ran HUGE and I thought that number would be somewhere in the mid-110s

The Indomitable DrugS 05-21-2007 02:19 PM

I don't trust any number in any race on anyones figures for Saturday's Pimlico card.

The track seemed to be changing speeds every race.

Curlin didn't get his trip---no way he ran a 119....and no way C. P. West ran a 110 for finishing 4th.

philcski 05-21-2007 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I don't trust any number in any race on anyones figures for Saturday's Pimlico card.
The track seemed to be changing speeds every race.

Curlin didn't get his trip---no way he ran a 119....and no way C. P. West ran a 110 for finishing 4th.

Fair point, and if you make your own figures you know that sometimes there's days where the numbers are just no good and must be discounted/discarded.

CP West, without a doubt, ran a career best. Could he jump up 15-20 points? I'm not so sure, which is what makes me doubt the 118 I came up with yesterday. I have no doubt that either of the top two are capable of a huge number, it's the also-rans that throw the fly in the ointment.

Cannon Shell 05-21-2007 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
Many years ago I began downgrading 1 3/16 races at Pimlico 5 or 6 points. It has served me well. For whatever reason, the races just come back too fast. This includes many Preaknesses and Pimlico Specials, as well as ordinary races.

probably isn't the correct distance or the runups changed.

parsixfarms 05-21-2007 04:37 PM

Judging from the final time of the Schaefer (1:47.4) and the horses that ran that time (Flashy Bull and Hesanoldsalt), the track was at least 3-5 lengths faster than normal towards the end of the card.

Also, there was a lot of moisture in the track for the Preakness. Just take a look at Street Sense as he was coming through the stretch. His front was covered with dirt/mud (and Calvin ran out of goggles).


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