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-   -   Derby Wise Guy Horse (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12290)

Scav 04-23-2007 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Not a graded, but he won the Sam Davis S. at Tampa Bay.

There you go, not even a graded winner......will be grossly overbet. Giacomo was the last non graded winner to win, after that I can't remember....

hi_im_god 04-23-2007 09:40 PM

i think ten most wanted was the ultimate wise guy horse recently.

but it's possible i only think that because my friends still occasionally call me "saarland" when i get out of line. one little mistake is all it takes with that crowd.

zanjero should be the wise guy horse this year. although i wonder if there is one if no one can agree who it is.

no chance hard spun or ags are wise guy horses. too many people like them. i've heard no heat behind cowtown cat. a wise guy horse has to be one that the supposed insiders agree has a great chance at good odds.

i think zanjero for now.

pgardn 04-23-2007 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
exactly, this horse is going to be the same odds at Circular Quay on derby Day, whole world is all over him, has AGS even won a stakes race this year?


What is strange about being the same odds as a horse who has not raced in 8 weeks and had an obvious change of plans due to...? someone tell me, why did Pletcher change plans. I dont remember Pletcher ever being quoted after CQ's last race saying that the plan is to give the horse 8 weeks off.

Scav 04-23-2007 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
There you go, not even a graded winner......will be grossly overbet. Giacomo was the last non graded winner to win, after that I can't remember....

Funny Cide also

all the way back to 1996 and can't find one besides those two, and probably less and less.

I don't consider it viable because of how things have changed but it is something to consider

Scav 04-23-2007 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
What is strange about being the same odds as a horse who has not raced in 8 weeks and had an obvious change of plans due to...? someone tell me, why did Pletcher change plans. I dont remember Pletcher ever being quoted after CQ's last race saying that the plan is to give the horse 8 weeks off.

the horse has worked perfectly the last two times, the horse is fine. he just needed time and from reports, Angel told him the horse runs best off layoffs and just get him ready.

The horse is lock city to hit the board with his turn of foot, and most likely win

pgardn 04-23-2007 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
the horse has worked perfectly the last two times, the horse is fine. he just needed time and from reports, Angel told him the horse runs best off layoffs and just get him ready.

The horse is lock city to hit the board with his turn of foot, and most likely win

2 month layoffs?
You got him as a favorite? Holy Moses. No way Im going for 8 weeks off, Barbaro has not sunk that deep into my bones and that was 5 weeks.

Antitrust32 04-23-2007 09:49 PM

So to be a wise guy horse you are not allowed to win preps?

Antitrust32 04-23-2007 09:50 PM

If you are allowed to win preps my wise guy horse is


smack diddy (new nickname all credit goes to me!)

hi_im_god 04-23-2007 09:52 PM

we are far, far away from the title subject. just enjoy the ride.

Scav 04-23-2007 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
So to be a wise guy horse you are not allowed to win preps?

yes, what has this horse but run a good second at Tampa Bay.

I am not saying he can't win, but he hasn't beat a race. I personally like horses that show me they can win a race, sometime in their life to bet to win

To address Pat, yes, and I am backing it up, The night before the Derby they allow pre betting and good ole Scav is going up there and putting $100 across on CQ, and putting him in all three spots of the tri with 10 horses (10x9x1,1x10x9, 10x1x9) so I am spending $570 on him alone, plus pick threes which I will play day of, and I will probably use 5 horses in the Derby with CQ being one of them. Don't care what the odds, they could be 5/1 and I would still play it

Scav 04-23-2007 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
If you are allowed to win preps my wise guy horse is


smack diddy (new nickname all credit goes to me!)

How is he 'a wise guy'? the whole country is going to have that horse.

Definition of a 'wise guy' is someone who thinks they have more knowledge of something, and is a smart ass about it.

the horse can't be considered a public horse, which they most often do on Derby Day because everyone wants to play the wise guy horse

SniperSB23 04-23-2007 10:03 PM

Even though I will be betting him Any Given Saturday is likely the wise guy horse. Zanjero could be another but I have a tough time seeing him go off at less than 20-1 and can't really see a horse termed a wise guy horse that goes off at higher odds than that.

hi_im_god 04-23-2007 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
How is he 'a wise guy'? the whole country is going to have that horse.

Definition of a 'wise guy' is someone who thinks they have more knowledge of something, and is a smart ass about it.

the horse can't be considered a public horse, which they most often do on Derby Day because everyone wants to play the wise guy horse

this is better than enough beers to make homer simpson suggest i hit an aa meeting, a tab of acid, and spinning around in a circle 12 times.

pgardn 04-23-2007 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
yes, what has this horse but run a good second at Tampa Bay.

I am not saying he can't win, but he hasn't beat a race. I personally like horses that show me they can win a race, sometime in their life to bet to win

To address Pat, yes, and I am backing it up, The night before the Derby they allow pre betting and good ole Scav is going up there and putting $100 across on CQ, and putting him in all three spots of the tri with 10 horses (10x9x1,1x10x9, 10x1x9) so I am spending $570 on him alone, plus pick threes which I will play day of, and I will probably use 5 horses in the Derby with CQ being one of them. Don't care what the odds, they could be 5/1 and I would still play it

You sir, are a brave man.
Guess I may have to pull for him if you are going to do that.

Scav 04-23-2007 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
You sir, are a brave man.
Guess I may have to pull for him if you are going to do that.

This following work will tell me everything I need to know, and what Haskin has to say about him. I am just not going to let a horse like this go off at 10 or 12/1 when he has the most talent in the race, bar none.

Scav 04-23-2007 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
More talented than Curlin? Street Sense?

yes....While Curlin has been impressive he hasn't run with the big boys yet. Now, people are going to throw Smarty over on me but he beat some horses in NY that year that were decent so I don't include him.

I personally would be surprised if Curlin finished above 7th place

pgardn 04-23-2007 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
This following work will tell me everything I need to know, and what Haskin has to say about him. I am just not going to let a horse like this go off at 10 or 12/1 when he has the most talent in the race, bar none.

Scavs my man he has got to have the race set up. If these horses get really strung out he is going to have a devil of a time passing one after another after another. Ya gotta hope there is a large pack of dead horses running together and the front runners pressing each other hard.


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