I finally saw the replay...no way anything was passing the winner! Again, as was stated before, the charts tell the story...and, beware of horses that close for a piece at 9 furlongs when the distance increases...often times they flatten out with increased distance!

Not this time, but Biz will fail, with that run repeated. I blame the Jock. Pushing on his neck out the gate, talk about making a horse rank.

you mean like Jazil?

I don't see how you can boldly claim the horse is going to fail in the Derby. It's not like there have been any worldbeaters so far.

My good friend Sniper made the great observation that Jazil runs the same every race, :25 quarters like clockwork. So for him, more distance is a good thing... otherwise, I tend to agree with the statement that closers don't necessarily move up at longer distances.

It's easy, if he presses the pace, he gets rank, he loses. That's all.

Jazil, like philcski pointed out, runs the same race everytime...he is rather the exception....AND, you are talking about a 12 furlong race in his case...closers at 9f often have trouble displaying the same kick at 10f, when you go beyond 10f, you are out of the "comfort zone" for American racing and plodders move up! (on the dirt...turf racing is obviously different).

No way does Sightseeing pass NoBiz. Sightseeing was getting tired and NoBiz still had some left in the tank. I honestly dont think that noBiz was getting cranked up until 100 yards from the finish line.

Biz was getting tired, Seek was still gaining.

Also, Sightseeing is a well-bred colt but his record (8/1-4-1) doesn't inspire me with confidence regarding his ability to win...looks much better in exotics imo!

It doesn't matter. Nobiz and Shug's horse just aren't that fast. Another sub-100 beyer for both. Both are tosses on derby day, if shug's even shows up.

If he improves off of the Wood then he's going to be tough to beat. He chewed up AGS and spit him out. There aren't too many horses on the derby trail that were as highly ranked and touted as AGS.

Not anything against NoBiz, but I am not throwing out AGS in the Derby. He had a hard race out with SS and may not have been totally ready for another hard race.

Remember Thunder Gulch threw in a clunker in his last prep race too, which also gave me those wonderful odds on Derby day.

Well this brings up a good pt. For me, if I can find a good closer finishing in less than 25, he is real good for the derby. Even 25 sec. may get it done on some days.

Even more important, I think you can determine which horses may not be able to get more distance by seeing what times they are finishing up with. A good barometer is about 27 1/2 sec final quarter.

Look at the Fountain of Youth, both Adore the GOld run the final 1/8 in 13.75 or a little more. They look to be hitting the wall based on that. Next race is the Fl derby same distance, the time at 3/4 mile is actually a little slower, but they ran the 4th Quarter just a little faster. Result they both collapsed.

look at KingoRoxy. He runs the last 1/8 in 13.5 over presumably faster track and connections say he is going to Preakness.

You can learn a lot by looking at these final times. Sure a closer like Tiago probably cant do it. But Circular Key? Zanjero? Great Hunter?

With Shugs horse he ran an ok race for 2nd. The whole thing is based on having your colt provide a "peak" performance on May 5th. Shug has been around long enough to know if indeed his progress continues forward or not. He is bred to be a very good horse.... so only time will tell.

Java OUT

good point, plus AGS was coming back on 3 weeks rest, and Nobiz 5 weeks

And Barclay Tagg does not?

Good for you. You're brave.

yes kinda like jazil, what did he do in the derby ? he won the belmont vs a horrible group and has done nothing since.

You coming out too PP? :D