I pretty much agree with STS's advice, but I'd qualify it somewhat:

1. Even if you perceive an overlay, you'd better have a good reason why the other bettors are "wrong". That is, what is it they are over- or under-estimating?

2. You should be betting less on longshots than on favs. Yeah, that's a "duh" to some, but others think in terms of flat-betting every race, which is a big mistake from a risk standpoint.

--Dunbar

Why does anyone ever bet to place?


I know of lots of folks who got started betting $2 to win, and $5 to place each race.

And, not necessarily on the same horse.

It's a fun way to have action, a good chance of collecting some tickets each day, and not lose more that $63 on a 9 race card in a worst case scenario. Yes, the opportunity to make "big bucks" is remote unless one runs the table, but it still can make for a fun......and profitable....afternoon.

If one wants to "stretch it out" from the $7 per race, going with a 3 horse quinella box can be OK for the $6 wager.....where offered.

If I've got a horse I really like that is NOT the favorite, it's very common for me to bet it solidly with a backup place wager.......if I'm convinced it's gonna be on the board. I do it most often when I totally discount the favorite. (edit: but I DO a double check glance at the place pool before making the wager, just to make certain it seems worthwhile.........and I define "worthwhile" for a backup place bet as recovering 50% or more of my win wager should the horse finish 2nd).

Last month, or possibly in December, a horse claimed from up here went down and ran in SoCal. She was made the favorite, and based upon my following up here, I completely tossed from the race. She ran out of the $$ and I cashed a nice Win and Place on my selection.

Criticizing? Not me sister. I'm just a little envious that I didn't pen a pearl of wisdom like " a winner is better than a tear up."

P.S. Are you and Ronnie "Woo Woo" tight?

I've read a lot of interesting material on the subject, but I can't claim to have a definitive system. I like the theories that say the size of the wager should correlate to your perceived edge and your chance of winning. If you have a large edge, but only a 5% chance of cashing, it's impossible to stick with the program.

i'll say you gave me a good laugh with your strategy.
thats why i quit drinking.

Not sure if you know me well enough to know that I was kidding.

Just making sure :)

I just figured I'd try to relate to Mera once every few weeks, and my time had come due :D

Someone asked why bet a horse to place....If you pick winners over 50% of the time then betting to place is probably not worthwhile...not that many horseplayers pick winners more than 50% of the time...if your selections run first or second a decent percentage of the time then perhaps the place bet will help to protect the bank roll...imho it is all about ROI...if your ROI is better with 2 units to win versus 1 unit win/place then you should go with straight win wagers...if you ROI is better playing the exocitcs then bet them...to me the horseracing game is a fun challenge... Playing the game is fun...however determining whether you are winning or losing the game is frequently measured in terms of did you win money or lose money....

You don't have to make money to have fun at the racetrack....but it sure don't hurt...

I've written a few articles on the subject. Here are the links:

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/expectations.html

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/bottomline.html

With regards to the W/P vs exotic question, I say don't have a plan.
It sounds obvious but each race is different. If you have a set betting strategy, you end up trying yo fit the races to a plan....not a good idea.
Some races are exotic races. Some are W/P races. Some are skip races. Havong a general idea is great, but make sure you don't make the mistake of trying to figure out how to fit each race into your betting strategy. Do the opposite.

If you pick winners over 50% of the time, you are A) a liar,or B) a selective chalkeater who only plays odds on favorites.

Nice work!

--Dunbar

I know that i certainly don't pick winners anywhere near 50% of the time...and have never claimed to..