| Linny |
10-19-2008 08:05 PM |
Hoss, if the discussion bores you, move on.
Henry and Duke may be a bit "over the top" after long campaigns. Duke is a proven 10f horse that won 5 consecutive G1's this year before his drubbing in the Arc. Is he past his best or did the race not shape up right or were Zarkava, Youmzain (who he's handled easily) and Soldier of Fortune just better right no?. Honestly, Zarkava is a beast and Youmzain an opportunist. Soldier will likely go as the favorite in the BCTurf.
This year's 3yo's in Europe are quite good, topped by Zarkava but with New Approach and Goldikova high rated too. Duke may have been taking advantage of the fact that Soldier of Fortune took the summer off, meaning he could simply gallop about picking on Youmzain. (Like what Curlin has done here.)
As for the milers, Henry and Raven's Pass, I don't care for either. I've been waiting to see Raven come for the Mile and now they stretch and change surface, no good, IMO. I tend to think that high class Euro's can stretch out in the US, for 2 reasons. First, a decent Euro will usually beat and very good American in grass racing. Their horses and significantly better than ours. (Red Rocks, had he stayed sound could have dominated the US grass scene this year and he's no better than G3 over there.) Second, a horse with the built in fitness acquired from racing and traning on hilly courses will often carry his "best race" a bit farther when going onto a flat US turf course. If Raven went in the Mile it would be a showdown between Goldikova and Raven's Pass and would have been a great race. Now we get an Elusive Quality trying to stretch a 1/4 mile past his longest ever distance while switching to a surface he's never run on.
Henry was a monster at a straightaway mile in the Guineas, handling Raven and all others. Maybe his spring/early summer took a toll as he was easily handled by Goldikova in the Prix du Moulin, a key G1 race. Next out, Raven got the jump on Henry (who had made the 1st move and held of Raven in the earlier races between them) and beat him. Henry has done better with firmer turf and being by Kingmambo (himself a miler) I think he may have a better shot at 10f than Raven's Pass. Henry's dam is by Sadler's Wells so I wouldn't be shocked if 10f was within his range. (In fact it's not unusual in Europe for a top 3yo miler to train on to be a 10-12f horse at 4.) The question is his current condition and how he handles the Pro-Ride.
At anything but a HUGE price, I'd be less than thrilled with the Euros in the Classic.
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