RP, you sound like a smart guy and your short-term take on the market is as valid as anyone else's … but let me ask you this … do you think a guy like Buffett would've gone ahead and spent tens of billions of dollars to purchase one of the largest railroad companies in the country … as he did last Feb … if he thought the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy wasn't all that great?


And dellinger … quick question … do you have any experience mowing lawns? :cool:

Railroads are infrastructure. When all else fails infrastructure remains. It would seem to be a stretch to say that this is a sign of recovery.

Buffett is obviously an extremely bright guy, to say the least. But there are differing opinions about what is going to happen over the next several years. There are several really smart people like Dent and even Krugman (a liberal), that think we are going to go into a depression. There are other really smart people that think things will be fine. We'll see what happens.

The guy I have the most confidence in is Dent when it comes to long-term calls. He can be off by as much as a year or so when it comes to timing, but his long term calls based on deomographics are usually right. I've never seen him as confident as he is right now that the market is going to crash. And you have to remember that he was as big of a bull as anyone over the last 20 years. He's not one of these guys that's usually bearish.

Buffet: high-speed domestic rail lines coming soon

Yea I mow once a week.

but if you keep your timing up I'll give you a few bucks to mow the lawn once a week. Of course the work is seasonal, I don't provide health insurance the lawn mower's self-propel doesn't work and you'll be paid in cash so no unemployment.

BTW No illegals or anyone who needs work breaks for prayers! Christians, mu slums whoever. :)

freight lines?

Passenger, an entire network.

Wow I missed this. as long as he finances it good for him. If the government has a part, I guess we'll just stay bent over.

Obama has been talking about it for a couple of years - job creation, energy, infrastructure? America far behind other countries on this? Hate to tell you, but Buffett has said he thinks Obama is the right one in the White House.

Did Buffet buy Amtrack?

No, he bought Burlington to transport coal for power plants. But that also positions him well for the future passenger.

He's not buying train companies, he's buying rail access

OK that's a stretch

BTW I think high speed rail can work and is needed however on a limited scale. The east coast could certainly benefit down to Virginia and has the potential to make money. The rest of the country except maybe California makes no sense.

IMO You'd be hard pressed to fill a single train leaving (once/day) from Chicago to St. Louis, Detrot, Indy, Louisville, Cleveland, (Maybe Madison/Party train) etc etc. Not in a hundred years will the building of it (both track and cars) be paid for by the service and it all would have been replaced 50 years before that.

not in his lifetime

"It's an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States," Buffett said in a statement announcing the deal Tuesday. "I love these bets."


http://articles.latimes.com/2009/nov...ss/fi-buffett4



No guarantees in this business … but this guy's opinion is more than good enough for me.

Will be buying more shares at the regular two-week interval next Friday...

I couldn't take it any more. I finally bought some puts. This is a sure sign of a short-term bottom.

Which ones and what line?

I bought some Spyder puts. I bought the SPY December 75 puts for $2.16. If the Dow goes down to 5,000 by December, which I think it may, these puts will be around $25.00.

I also bought a few July SPY puts. I bought the 99 puts for $1.28. Even though we could have a rally right now, there is also a chance that we could go into a sure-term free-fall. There are some technical indicators that show the Dow could drop to as low as 8200 short-term. If that happens, those puts will go to about $11 or $12.

I'm sure we will get a rally. I haven't been able to do anything right in the market the last couple of years. Whatever I do, you should do the opposite.

Rupert, Do you know that they now offer weekly contracts as well?

The problem with the Dec puts are that they are 27 pts out of the money. So you are going to need another major sell off for these things to go up. Volitility most likely exploded this week with the market getting creamed, so the puts are skewed to the high side causing you to pay up. But that goes for any kind of strategy you would have put on (spreads, straddles, combos etc....)
I like the July's better. Only a couple of points out of the money and could become good with another dip.
I always hear that you should never buy out of the money options. But reguardless and good luck with your positions. I also think we are going lower, but unfortunately I am also a conspiricy theorist and think Washington will just cook up some good numbers to stop any kind of temporary spirals.

I practically never buy options that are way out of the money. The only reason I'm doing it in this case is because Harry Dent is predicting a huge crash between now and December. So I'm taking a shot. I could just short some Spyders but then I would have unlimited downside risk. I'd rather just buy these puts.