Round 2, bet #1*:

$100 to show on Rachel Alexandra in Ky Oaks.


--Dunbar

*this thread began with jman trying to put together a string of 10 show bets, parlaying the amount won each time. He never quite made the 10-bet string successfully. BUT, when looked at as a string of separate $2 bets, he averaged a $1.99+ return on each $2 bet.

jman gave it a rest after 119 show bets; then I took up the mantel. My "Round 1" ended on the 3rd bet.

Good Luck Dunbar. :$:

Bet 1 result:

In a squeaker, Rachel Alexandra won and paid $105 to show.

--Dunbar

200 on zenyatta to show.

I would have taken that, too, if I'd been on the ball enough to see the 3rd scratch leaving just 6 horses.

--Dunbar

One day i am going to get you to show me the math behind that Dunbar. :)

I hope all is well in your world.

I am plus 210. On to the next.

210 to show on the darley entry (seventh street and skylighter) in the Ruffian.

220 to show on Russell Road Race 9 (the a huevo stakes) Charlestown (nov 21)

cancelled show pool in an eight horse field.

I was thinking, "wow, I've never seen that before!". Then I remembered the 2.20 min payout.

I didn't see how much was bet on the winner, but I'm almost positive there was a negative place pool. The races before and after had W/P pools totally about $25K, but this race had $119K. (and the exacta pools were about $20-25K for all 3 races.) I'm guessing there was an extra $90K or so on your horse in the place pool.

I wonder what the record is for largest field for which show betting was cancelled. I can't remember a 7-horse field, much less the 8-horse field in your race.

--Dunbar

One scratched so it ended up being a 7 horse field. Still...I was getting ready to call a friend to say "you want some free money". Russell Road is a nice horse and his only losses this year have been to Big Drama and I want Revenge. He is undefeated against state breds and I guess the people in Charlestown knew it was going to be pretty ugly with the negative show pool.

I'm new around here so please forgive me if the following questions are dumb. Just making sure this is how Show Parlaying works.

Example:

I bet $100 to show on a horse and it hits for $2.10 so you get $105 back/ Do you pocket the $5 and keept betting $100 and pocketing whatever you get over the $100

or is it like this

I bet $100 to show on a horse and it hits for $2.10 so I get $105 back. I put the $105 on the next one and win say I then have $120 then I put the $120 on the next one?

Sorry if this is a dumb question and thanks for any help.

Your second example is correct.

--Dunbar

Gonna try this
 

Slow day at work and I have read most of this thread. I have been intrigued by parlays in the past so here goes. As you will see by the amount of these picks in one night I am much less selective. I am going to try to get away from having so many $2.10 and $2.20 payoffs so that when I do hit the parlay it may be a bit more substantial. I have also come up with the arbitrary figure of stopping the parlay after 5 hits, and I also feel I should check on how much running straight show wagers on these as well would return. The odd part is I am strictly an exotics player rarely playing W/P/S or even exactas. So will put these out there to see what happens. These all are for tomorrow night start in chronological order:
ded1 hit the road lee
ct1 her name is rio
ct2 kizzie legacy
pen4 iris proverb
hou1 cromwell
ct3 jewels frolic
hou2 last chip
ct4 beboppin betty
pen6 sweet bama breeze
ded5 bubbaslittlesister
hou3 ww conquistador
pen7 sunday prospector
ded6 lonestarchamp
ct6 osage county
hou4 elite access
pen8 bobby and bob
ded7 puppysnewdaddy
ct7 sky can fly
hou5 all there
ded8 sefapiano jr
ct8 seek silver
hou6 rovina
ded9 cold and windswept
ded10 man in command

so will keep track of straight bets, look for 5 in a row, then start new 5, or start new after bustouts. I will most likely disappear from this thread if these suck or may fine tune if shows promise.

Welcome to the thread, MrG.

If you compare a $100 parlay scheme, like you propose, to betting $100 on each race to show, you will end up making many fewer bets with the parlay. But for the same "X" dollars bet, it won't change your average result. The only advantage to the parlay is that you get more bang for your buck.

It's good you're planning to keep track of results on every race as well as the parlay. You get a better idea of whether you're beating the track take by looking at the complete set of bets as equal bets than by the parlay results.

Good luck.

--Dunbar

Thanks Dunbar,

with any bad handicapping tonight it may be a short stay. As far as keeping track of parlays and straight bets, yes with parlays you are risking less but if I see I am picking lets say 4 out of 5 but never hitting the parlay we need to see if the payoff is high enough to warrant the straight bet only or maybe as well as the parlays. It will be fun anyway.

results
 

well, hit two 5 horse parlays and did actually have 11 in a row at one time. Of the 22 picks that were left after scratches 10 horses finished first and 7 horses placed 5 were out of the money of which 4 were from Charlestown (maybe no more Charlestown). On straight bets $51.60 show return on $44 in plays. $61.20 return if you played them all to win. $62.80 return on place. So thats $7.60 show, $18.80 place, and $17.20 win in profit per $2 wagered. On the 2 parlays that were hit this was the sequence:

2.80, 2.20, 2.60, 2.40, 4.00
then
2.80, 3.80, 3.60, 2.60, 2.60 finished with a $6.00 show for the eleventh in a row

plug in whatever amount you would start with to figure the parlay payoff.
it comes out to a nice return, again without Charlestown even better, 7 winners and 7 place out of 15 picks, but with still good
so it was fun and showed a nice profit too for this night, the first $100 show parlay would return profit of $380.40, the second was profit of $708.60. believe it or not mathematically the 10 horse parlay would have returned about $8000 on a $100 starting wager but obviously due to pool size and bet effects you could never start with this large of a bet amount

Bet #2 in current round: Rachel Alexandra to show $105 (FairGrounds)

--Dunbar

Result: paid $2.10. $105 bet returns $110.


--Dunbar

Bet #3 in current round.

$110 to show on Zenyatta in Apple Blossom. I'll be surprised if they have show betting, though.

--Dunbar