No, it won't. People will call this the worst crop ever and that, of course, the Belmont fit his style perfectly and he had the perfect setup and trip.

I guarantee that if he loses, i shall get a mountain of grief from a certain couple of people, who, ironically, accuse me of things like chest thumping.

6/6/15 (BEL): Belmont Stakes

American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza)
Keen Ice (Romans)
Mubtaahij (de Kock)
Tale of Verve (Stewart)
Madefromlucky (Pletcher)
Carpe Diem (Pletcher)
Materiality (Pletcher)
Frosted (McLaughlin)
Frammento (Zito)

Well, you're half right, at least as far as my post-Belmont response. I can't remember ever going back to dig up ridiculous posts and quoting them when they've been proven wrong (or at least highly dubious), but I may make an exception in this case. That's how over-the-top I think the accolades have been for a horse that to me has shown no more quality than Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome had at the same stages of their careers. (I won't put Silver Charm in that list because SC won his KD and Preakness against 2-3 other horses with BSF's in the 115 range, and was more impressive, IMO.)

But if AP wins the Belmont, I can't think of a scenario that would keep me from joining the worshippers, short of some truly calamitous event that wipes out most of the competition. I won't care if AP has the most perfect of perfect trips/setups--if he can get 1.5 miles on top of everything else he's done and beat these more-rested horsess, then he's truly worthy in my book.

In fact, it seems to me that the ones making excuses in advance are the very people who think AP is so spectacular. I keep reading about all the things that can go wrong in the Belmont from the AP-Is-The-2nd-Coming camp. It's almost like they don't believe the hype themselves.

--Dunbar

I don't think they're making excuses; I think the TC is harder to win now because there are so many more horses in each of the races. I'm not saying Secretariat wasn't one of the greatest to look through a bridle (and certainly not comparing AP to him in any way), but he only had 3 challengers in the Belmont. It's much easier for a great horse to run a great race when there's only 3 you have to beat. If Smarty or Chrome had only faced 3 other horses, would they have won? If the KD was capped at 14, would Afleet Alex be a TC winner? Obviously no one can know, but certainly their chances would have been much higher. But, as has been pointed out, Smarty Jones defeated more horses in losing the TC than any actual TC winner ever did, and I think that can't be discounted as a factor in why it's been impossible to win the past few decades.

Make it 10 foes..

Per Privman, Conquest Curlinate (Casse/Bridgmohan) to supplement the $75k to run in Belmont..

not surprised, saw that possibility mentioned in a bloodhorse article.

some good points. it's tough; after winning two very coveted races in a two week time span, you have to come back and win a race that's very difficult tactically...going longer than ever before. i thought American Pharaoh would win the derby and preakness and then lose the belmont. i really hope i'm wrong. i want to see him win it.

This is really good.

With the exception of Frosted, Everyone else in here thus far is a complete toss to beat AP. Who has Materiality beaten, exactly, to warrant such expectation?


He beat nothing in the Islamorada, and outlasted a horse that quit in the Derby.

Sign me up to take that at 7/2 :rolleyes:

Again, not a particular fan of the horse, but the irrational exuberance of his supposed and inevitable failure in 3 weeks because he has yet to meet some imagined criteria in getting here is funny.

Still nobody targeted for the Belmont fast enough to push or challenge AP for the lead. Maybe I'm missing something? Somebody will try but not sure how that will go. Lots can change in three weeks but can't wait to see Baffert hoist that trophy!!

Why is Frosted a contender in the Belmont, but not Materiality?

People look for the most logical horse because its been an impossible task to conquer and so it makes sense to bet anyone but the favorite, which frankly has been a good strategy for 40 years. Just not this year.

Not nearly as funny as the feigned outrage directed at those who may have even the mildest of criticisms of the horse.

This was also an epic fail in the application of the "Who did he beat?" theory considering Materiality beat a horse who twice handled Frosted. Unless you hold Tencendur and El Kabeir in extremely high regard.

Not sure why either are contenders? Frosted ran a better derby then Materialty IMO. I think both should be 15 to 20 to 1 to offer value and they will both be way under that price. Does Frosted have more then a 1 in 10 or 12 chance to beat AP? I dont see it

:tro: I agree totally ....... he wins, he is truly the best of our generation, if not.......... :p

Dude you are 51. The best of your generation is Secretariat.

One won the Wood Memorial with a competitive figure and one won the Florida Derby with a competitive figure.

Both had some excuses in the Kentucky Derby, and even if those don't hold much water, certainly one won't be shocked, given historical results in the Classics, to see either horse fire their best shot at Belmont.

Witness: Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, Snow Chief, Hansel, Pine Bluff, Tabasco Cat, Louis Quatorze, Point Given, Lookin At Lucky, Shackleford, Oxbow, Commendable, Lemon Drop Kid, Brimstone, Jazil, Summer Bird, Union Rags, Palace Malice, Little Current.

Have you not read the other posts here????? :D I'm sure the masses will concur with MY statement ........ here ;)

Because Frosted may have the slightest look as an outside longshot from a pace perspective, where Materiality will be the typical over-hyped, over-bet TAP entry that has already proven he's not capable of rating.

:o Sorry about that