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-   -   Rachel to Monmouth on July 24... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36931)

cmorioles 07-08-2010 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 666628)
I'd love to see a list of recent horses who couldn't win going 10f as 3YO's that run away going classic distances as older horses. I would think that list would be much longer than one would think.
There are what, 3 races for 3yos going 10f or more that matter? So it would make sense the winner's of those races aren't going to win all the 10f and more races when older.

CSC 07-08-2010 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 666606)
No one is talking about though. Of course when betting you would do that. But The Closeted Man was talking about what QR had done this year, then jumped to last year.

One has nothing to do with the other.
I understand what you are saying, however as horseplayers we have to use all of the information we have available to make that call. I am not convinced QR will be better at 1 1/4 than he is at 1 mile from what I have seen of him. I'm not even sure he will offer any value if he is classic bound. To me he represents a great opportunity as a bet against if he continues to win and lines up as the favorite in the Classic.

slotdirt 07-08-2010 04:40 PM
Understood. My point was that lots of horses improve from three to four, and just because a horse failed going 10 panels at three doesn't mean he/she can't win going the same distance a year later.

cmorioles 07-08-2010 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 666596)
The horse showed last year it couldn't get 10F (on TWO occasions). This year the horse has been limited to 2 8F races and a 9F race on the speed favoring GP oval. And has yet to face a REAL horse. YET, the suggestion that last year's 10F races are relevant gets his supporters out in force. Funny how simple things seem to escape them. It'll be interesting to see how eager they all are to bet their money on him going 10F in the Classic, where he just might face some competition. Of course, this assumes he shows up for it. Not a done deal, at all. Last I heard the race was at CD not GP.
Couldn't get 10f? One was off a layoff with nothing but a 6.5f prep and he was on a very fast pace and weakened very late, the other he ran very well to narrowly lose to the Belmont winner. That means he can't "get" 10f?

CSC 07-08-2010 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 666638)
Understood. My point was that lots of horses improve from three to four, and just because a horse failed going 10 panels at three doesn't mean he/she can't win going the same distance a year later.
Again, not to keep reiterating I understand the 3 to 4 improvement cycle. Some horses just strike you as classic distance horses, some more than others. Summer Bird was a horse you knew would be better once he stretched out in distance. I don't get that feeling with QR, maybe he does-maybe he doesn't. At what price does one take on him given his bet down tendacies?

ateamstupid 07-08-2010 04:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC (Post 666636)
I understand what you are saying, however as horseplayers we have to use all of the information we have available to make that call. I am not convinced QR will be better at 1 1/4 than he is at 1 mile from what I have seen of him. I'm not even sure he will offer any value if he is classic bound. To me he represents a great opportunity as a bet against if he continues to win and lines up as the favorite in the Classic.
Just like the_manic_depressive_man, you're changing the subject. The discussion was about 2010 HOY and where they stand at this point. What QR did last year has absolutely nothing to do with that.

CSC 07-08-2010 04:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 666645)
Just like the_manic_depressive_man, you're changing the subject. The discussion was about 2010 HOY and where they stand at this point. What QR did last year has absolutely nothing to do with that.
Yep, unlike you, some don't have their lives revolve around who will be HOY.

If you don't know by now it means nothing to me or very little.

ateamstupid 07-08-2010 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC (Post 666647)
Yep, unlike you, some don't have their lives revolve around who will be HOY.

If you don't know by now it means nothing to me or very little.
TMDM was the one who brought up HOY in a defense of Zenyatta's schedule, asshat. I don't really care what it means to you, but you jumped into a discussion about 2010 HOY started by one of your butt buddies and then started yammering about QR not being a horseplayer's horse or something.

CSC 07-08-2010 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 666648)
TMDM was the one who brought up HOY in a defense of Zenyatta's schedule, asshat. I don't really care what it means to you, but you jumped into a discussion about 2010 HOY started by one of your butt buddies and then started yammering about QR not being a horseplayer's horse or something.
This is the purpose of a horseracing forum, isn't it? Discussing betting angles, horses to bet for against or against...you know regular things you hear at the track. Whomever wins or doesn't win HOY doesn't put money in bettors hands.

BTW staying on topic is fine, if one tried to hijack a thread by introducing politics into a Rachel to Monmouth on July 24 thread. I don't know how QR winning HOY or not fits this thread also, and certainly you didn't object then. Maybe you are the one who is a delusional sux.

ateamstupid 07-08-2010 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC (Post 666652)
Maybe you are the one who is a delusional sux.
Thanks for the new signature. Your move Nascar.

CSC 07-08-2010 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 666660)
Thanks for the new signature. Your move Nascar.
Your welcome, I hope it brings you some serene inner peace. Here's a smiley for you :)

Dahoss 07-08-2010 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC (Post 666636)
I understand what you are saying, however as horseplayers we have to use all of the information we have available to make that call. I am not convinced QR will be better at 1 1/4 than he is at 1 mile from what I have seen of him. I'm not even sure he will offer any value if he is classic bound. To me he represents a great opportunity as a bet against if he continues to win and lines up as the favorite in the Classic.
No I don't think you do understand what I'm saying. The Closeted Man wasn't talking about betting. No one was. He was going off on another one of his rants and what QR did last year had nothing to do with his performances last year.

That's something you Zenyattatards can't seem to grasp. What happened last year was last year.

Sure, I prefer betting discussions but not every discussion is about betting. TCM's post definitely wasn't.

slotdirt 07-08-2010 06:33 PM
Find me the person who "just knew" that Summer Bird was going to be anything last year even after the Derby. That's some very solid hindsight.

Danzig 07-08-2010 06:33 PM
so, QR got a third and a second at 10f last year, but he can't get 10f? he entered the travers off a layoff, and then one sprint. then he contested the lead early, and battled with summer bird late, before finishing second in the gold cup. but he can't 'get' 10f? i'd like to see him make a few more efforts at that distance. he may get a mile or so better than 10f, but i don't think it's a given he would lose at the classic distance in the future.


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