let's see... only a 10% chance that I'm betting with a 5% disadvantage... eek, I'm already in over my head... but I think I'm sounding pretty smart... in that case, I will not argue with you.

jman, I finally got around to looking at this again. Let me see if I can produce some statistics without (1) making a mistake, or (2) putting you to sleep.

Here's what I did:

1. I calculated the average result of your 119 show bets. You lost an average of $0.008 per $2 show bet.

2. I calculated the standard deviation of your 119 show bets. The standard deviation is 0.94, based on $2 bets.*

3. I calculated the "standard error", which is the standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of bets. 0.94/sqrt(119) = 0.09.

Armed with this data, the challenge is to tell whether your good performance was just a matter of luck. (like a roulette player who just happens to hit a few numbers.)

Consider these two "tests":

Test 1: Can we distinguish jman's record from someone who loses at the track take, say 16%?

A -16% bettor would lose $0.32 per bet compared to jman's $0.008. A 32 cent loss is more than 3 standard errors worse than jman's loss. A 3-standard error result should occur by luck in about one in 700 cases. I think we can assume that jman's picks were clearly better than the track take.

Test 2: Can we distinguish jman from someone who picks well enough to lose at just 5%?

A -5% capper would lose $0.10 per $2 bet. That's about $0.09 worse than jman's result. The difference between a -5% capper and jman result for his 119 bets is about one standard error. That kind of difference occurs by luck about 1 time in 6. We can't really rule out the luck element at that level.

Bottom Line: Your picks clearly showed that the difference between your results and a dart-thrower is statistically significant. But we'd need more picks to say that you're doing better (in a statistically significant sense) than a capper who has a 5% average loss.

Bottom Line, version 2: There's less than 1 chance in 700 that a dart-throwing capper could have produced results as good as yours. There's about 1 chance in 6 that a capper who averages a 5% loss could have produced results as good as yours over the course of 119 bets.

--Dunbar

* one easy way to do this is use the Excel function, =STDEVA(C1:C119), where the payoffs are in cells C1 down to C119.
.

Well, there you have it folks... thanks Dunbar! We make a great team, I do all the fun part and you do all the grunt work because a) I'm too lazy and/or b) inept. Thanks for helping out with the experiment and good luck on your picks.

Bet #3, as I rocket toward untold wealth... I'm going to pocket the $0.25 and put the remaining $110 on:

2/24 Gulf#10 War Pass to show.

--Dunbar

Pace Dismantlage material.

There was no show betting. Gulfstream wimped out when the field was reduced to 5.

--Dunbar

I'll try again with War Pass:

Bet #3,
3/15 Tampa Bay Derby. $110 on War Pass to show.

--Dunbar

War Pass finishes last. Bet loses.

Back to square one.

--Dunbar

Okay, Round 2 begins.

$100 to show on Histericalady in the Fleur d' Lis, CD 6th, 6/14

--Dunbar

Excellent work as always Dunbar!

This is absolutely one of the most informative threads i have read on this or any other website.

Thank you Jman and Dunbar!!! Cheers to the both of you!

Dalakhani and Rupert, thanks for the nice comments!

--Dunbar

With the field reduced to 5, Churchill Downs cancelled show betting in obvious fear of my massive play.

So, no bet.

--Dunbar

Another try at getting Round 2 of my show parlays off the ground:

$100 to show on Indian Blessing in the Gallant Bloom Hdcp, race 9 at Belmont today.

Let's see if they allow show betting.

--Dunbar

Foiled again. With the scratch there was no show betting.

--Dunbar

can i play one with you guys?

This reply may be too late for the one you were thinking of, but I certainly don't mind if you keep track of your own plays in this thread.

--Dunbar

are you going to play another one Dunbar?

Yes, but I expect it to be at the same torrid pace of plays I've already been posting.

--Dunbar