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-   -   2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=56457)

DonGuido 06-02-2015 11:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1029501)
I dont think their is a 3 yer old colt that can run 12f's fast never mind well
Exactly:tro:

knickslions2 06-02-2015 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 1029545)
IF AP wins, he is 3 yr old champ and horse of the year, and will NEVER race again, they will retire him, it would be over and done, and the rest of the year will suck, IF he loses, we get to see him race again, against the the best 3 and 4 yr olds that are racing, I would rather he lose and continue to race and prove how great he could or could not be, and make HOY a real horserace........
If he wins this it will be 5 wins in 12 weeks. What more do you want him to prove?

robfla 06-02-2015 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 1029545)
IF AP wins, he is 3 yr old champ and horse of the year, and will NEVER race again, they will retire him, it would be over and done, and the rest of the year will suck, IF he loses, we get to see him race again, against the the best 3 and 4 yr olds that are racing, I would rather he lose and continue to race and prove how great he could or could not be, and make HOY a real horserace........

so, whether he ever races again or not, depends on how he does in the Belmont???....yeah, sure

:confused:

Dunbar 06-02-2015 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla (Post 1029562)
so, whether he ever races again or not, depends on how he does in the Belmont???....yeah, sure

:confused:
I think that's a reasonable assumption. What are you thinking, that he'll be retired regardless? Good chance of that, too.

I'd give an immediate 3-1 to anyone thinking he'd start in the BCC after winning the Belmont.

blackthroatedwind 06-02-2015 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1029563)
I think that's a reasonable assumption. What are you thinking, that he'll be retired regardless? Good chance of that, too.

I'd give an immediate 3-1 to anyone thinking he'd start in the BCC after winning the Belmont.
I'm in.

freddymo 06-02-2015 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1029563)
I think that's a reasonable assumption. What are you thinking, that he'll be retired regardless? Good chance of that, too.

I'd give an immediate 3-1 to anyone thinking he'd start in the BCC after winning the Belmont.
You are being silly. Assuming he does win Zayat already sold the rights so whats the risk if he loses? and there are bonus's if he wins perhaps Travers/Haskell and certainly BCC. Not too mention that that purse for BCC is 3 million to winner. Why in the world would Zayat not need those dollars? Plus he apparently loves being in spotlight which he will be racing a TC winner. Baffert isnt shy about running sound horses and love MP so at least we could see him in Haskell although my guess would be that would better suite Dortmund

Rupert Pupkin 06-02-2015 03:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1029566)
You are being silly. Assuming he does win Zayat already sold the rights so whats the risk if he loses? and there are bonus's if he wins perhaps Travers/Haskell and certainly BCC. Not too mention that that purse for BCC is 3 million to winner. Why in the world would Zayat not need those dollars? Plus he apparently loves being in spotlight which he will be racing a TC winner. Baffert isnt shy about running sound horses and love MP so at least we could see him in Haskell although my guess would be that would better suite Dortmund
You are exactly right. I highly doubt there was a clause in the contract stating that Zayat must retire the horse after the Belmont. If the horse comes out of the race in good shape, he will definitely continue to run this year.

freddymo 06-02-2015 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 1029567)
You are exactly right. I highly doubt there was a clause in the contract stating that Zayat must retire the horse after the Belmont. If the horse comes out of the race in good shape, he will definitely continue to run this year.
Not to mention Zayat still owns a % of PoTN could hurt to further his rep as stallion of TC winner and BCC.

Indian Charlie 06-02-2015 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1029563)
I think that's a reasonable assumption. What are you thinking, that he'll be retired regardless? Good chance of that, too.

I'd give an immediate 3-1 to anyone thinking he'd start in the BCC after winning the Belmont.
How much exposure are you willing to take on that????

robfla 06-02-2015 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1029563)
I think that's a reasonable assumption. What are you thinking, that he'll be retired regardless? Good chance of that, too.

I'd give an immediate 3-1 to anyone thinking he'd start in the BCC after winning the Belmont.
No, I think they will run him ( if healthy ) until at least the end of the year and the BCC - regardless of the Belmont results

RolloTomasi 06-02-2015 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1029539)
I think AP is the best colt I have seen since post steroid era. I am sure some people are still fooling around with steroids and or using them properly when indicated to heal and treat various conditions but guessing the majority of the trainers that compete on biggest circuits have stopped PED steroid use save when inFlorida. I think he looks the part of a true champion and in a few days will see.
Post steroid era. Cute. I guess that explains the slow finishes in the Derby and Preakness.

However, I do thinks its endearing how you are laying the groundwork for the inevitable post-race excuses with these last couple of "sober Freddy" posts.

dalakhani 06-02-2015 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1029561)
If he wins this it will be 5 wins in 12 weeks. What more do you want him to prove?
A win against open company would be nice.

Dunbar 06-03-2015 12:22 AM
hmmm, if BTWind and Rupert are both suggesting I'm wrong, I have to reconsider. And I hadn't seen that there were more incentives beyond the Belmont, as freddymo pointed out.

But I'd still risk 600, to answer IC. PM if interested.

I think people generally underestimate all the things that can go wrong even when an owner wants to make it to a given race. If AP wins the TC, a bad sneeze would send him into retirement.

bare it all 06-03-2015 06:43 AM
Well this is awesome. Can't wait to see the "Monster Girls"...

http://espn.go.com/new-york/story/_/...-deals-history

Indian Charlie 06-03-2015 08:01 AM
I'm starting to want this horse to lose now.

ateamstupid 06-03-2015 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1029612)
I'm starting to want this horse to lose now.
Quote:
"We have a horse that's a unique talent that is going for the Triple Crown, and we're pleased to be associated with a beverage brand like Monster," said American Pharoah owner Ahmed Zayat, whose riches came from selling his own beverage company to Heineken in 2002. "We hope the drink gives our horse that extra kick."
Raid the barn!

robfla 06-03-2015 11:33 AM

SundayStar 06-03-2015 11:35 AM
is Materiality the only other speed? what about Made From Lucky?

ateamstupid 06-03-2015 11:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SundayStar (Post 1029639)
is Materiality the only other speed? what about Made From Lucky?
He's more of a stalking type. Won the Peter Pan from off the pace.

Sightseek 06-03-2015 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1029612)
I'm starting to want this horse to lose now.
Ditto.

alysheba4 06-03-2015 03:10 PM
AP over Frosted $8 exacta.

Mike 06-03-2015 04:03 PM
How do we gauge Mubtaahij? He does have a grass, distance pedigree?

knickslions2 06-03-2015 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike (Post 1029664)
How do we gauge Mubtaahij? He does have a grass, distance pedigree?
Mike I think he is too slow to win but may get up in 3rd or 4th

Danzig 06-03-2015 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 1029585)
A win against open company would be nice.
:tro:

Kitan 06-03-2015 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1029566)
You are being silly. Assuming he does win Zayat already sold the rights so whats the risk if he loses? and there are bonus's if he wins perhaps Travers/Haskell and certainly BCC. Not too mention that that purse for BCC is 3 million to winner. Why in the world would Zayat not need those dollars? Plus he apparently loves being in spotlight which he will be racing a TC winner. Baffert isnt shy about running sound horses and love MP so at least we could see him in Haskell although my guess would be that would better suite Dortmund
Dubai World Cup?

Danzig 06-03-2015 11:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1029684)
Dubai World Cup?
Ugh

Travis Stone 06-04-2015 11:15 AM
I tried to get a respected racing colleague to bet me whether or not American Pharoah would race again if he won the Belmont. He thought he would, I was willing to bet he wouldn't... but his response was, "I'm smart enough to not take that bet."

I don't think there's a zero percent change he doesn't run, but I think that number is VERY low.

freddymo 06-04-2015 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1029684)
Dubai World Cup?
Look anything is possible but please consider Zayat will not control the colts whereabouts after 12/31/15. ITS HIGHLY unlikely he will be racing as a 4 year old and I would think he will shuttle to Australia at least until AP's 2 year olds start racing. Maybe they will keep him in Ky exclusively? I cant say just guessing. If he wins TC Travers or Haskel and BCC. He has to stand for at least 75k a mare more likely 100 right?

Kitan 06-04-2015 02:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 1029585)
A win against open company would be nice.
But can he do it on a rainy day in Russia?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13qrK5ZQnXc

FATPIANO 06-10-2015 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 1029731)
I tried to get a respected racing colleague to bet me whether or not American Pharoah would race again if he won the Belmont. He thought he would, I was willing to bet he wouldn't... but his response was, "I'm smart enough to not take that bet."

I don't think there's a zero percent change he doesn't run, but I think that number is VERY low.
In my humble opinion, I do not think we will ever see AP race again,
1...Ins premium too high
2...Injury factor
3...chance of a loss

The risk of injury and risk of a loss, makes no sense to race again, there is nothing to gain, and a lot more to lose.

jnunan4759 06-10-2015 02:06 PM
I think he does the Haskell and PA Derby. There will be boatloads of money available and Monmouth and Parx have always been rumored to give "appearance" money.

Indian Charlie 06-10-2015 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 1031038)
In my humble opinion, I do not think we will ever see AP race again,
1...Ins premium too high
2...Injury factor
3...chance of a loss

The risk of injury and risk of a loss, makes no sense to race again, there is nothing to gain, and a lot more to lose.
Nothing to gain, you mean beyond potentially somewhere in the four to five million in purse money?

Or who knows what, another five to ten in incentives from Coolmore attached to winning key grade 1s?

They would also gain the ire of his fans if they retired him before he were to run again.

Dunbar 11-01-2015 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1029563)
I think that's a reasonable assumption. What are you thinking, that he'll be retired regardless? Good chance of that, too.

I'd give an immediate 3-1 to anyone thinking he'd start in the BCC after winning the Belmont.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1029565)
I'm in.
I'm glad you didn't pursue it!


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