FG 4

[bellsbendboy]

7) Liquoreux is only two for twelve but will enjoy the rider upgrade and ashape of the race. CC 4yo has at least been consistent and Amoos the best in midwest at spotting his stock. Also Korbyn Gold and Founding Chairman.

8) Singling HUNSA. Swain homebred caught a tough rail (out) and a tough trip in her debut and battled gamely. Next out she caught a paceless bunch off the shrubs and ran huge to an Overbrook homer with very hot late fractions....then had no chance vs. a Claiborne filly with the rail out before breaking her maiden in last. Bobby worked back 18 days out which for him is normal then a half before shipping, then 25 nicely spaced morning furlongs. The rail is out today which is a concern but Robbie the boss of the moss this oval and we'll take our chances.

9) Going four long; Wild as Elle, Swept Gold, Miss Connie Sue and Mythical Event.

10) Future Vision ran a big race at 3-2 this class off the layoff, was claimed raised in class and showed little versus an Amoss three peater. Riqulme on the reride and he is much better second time. Pioneering 4yo runnerup this level a handful of times, but weak barn a concern so adding "Lucky from very powerful barn with over 300K on deposit with racing office. Texas bred looked awful off the break but has a class advantage here and Cody and C. J. a very good combo. Had little time for in depth analysis but did put the time in... tough sequence indeed. Good cappin. BBB

[bellsbendboy]

Rehash: Was never comfortable with this sequence yet had time to 'cap it and saw vulnerable favorites thruout. In fact ended up singling one of them! Pick four players all share a common ability to eliminate horses ill suited to todays race and use tenets or principles to help make the tough calls. I add some statistical probabilities to the wager, yet errors are ubiquitous and largely unavoidable given the small tickets, especially with their construction.

7) Tricky Devil figured short on the board and a bigger favorite in the pick 4 pool. (Most players include the favorite in leg one to "stay alive"). I saw some opportunity if I could beat him and some evidence that he would not fire. In no particular order; he had not raced in 35 days (he was entered "buzzergate" day but scratched) he added fronts in his last, horses who have won their last and return in the same class lose about 80 percent of the time nationally and a bit higher in the midwest. Lastly, this 6yo has been in heavy training since late summer and his career shows a pattern of three or four efforts then some time off.

The positives: broke his maiden at Keeneland for a tag and Beyered 113 (ok) has never been better, a half brother to the quick on quick Confide, and from the powerful Autrey/Heflin barn.

I tried to beat him and ran 2,3,and 4th. The selection of Liqueroux was very dumb, he was 2-12 and Amoss ran him because there was not a nw3life in this book! I did not look.

8) Very few horse can win at different distances or different surfaces and most turf horses are either more comfortable with the race on the hedge or with the rail up. My analysis of Hunsa pointed out that on the hedge she had two sharp races and with the rail out two off the board finishes. Yesterday the rail was out! Additionally she had been off for 10 weeks, yet she went favored and was caught wide. She scratched out of a 12/22 heat when it went off the turf and when she runs back, if on the hedge, she'll be hard to handle. Why single her yesterday? The most likely winner and no attractive options.

9) I could find no reason to suspect that heavy favorite Ocean Current would win and could not whittle down the four I opted for. Competent cappers going four deep should have the winner 80 percent of the time and I elected to stand pat leading to the single in the previous race.

10) Years ago I recall many times when the last race bailed me out. In fact many tracks offered a triple only on that race, so I always spend some time and this rock bottom claimer required that investment. I had three but culled the bug because he is a very weak rider even though his horses number power dwarfed the others. Note the layoff, then the massive improvement in each of his last two while finishing second to a pair of Amoss droppers. Future Vision was eliminated at the break leading to the DQ and "Lucky inherited the win as the 2-1 favorite.

Both the first and the last leg way over par winners were claimed and paid nothing. Our 'cappin was just fine, it doesn't vary much but the ticket construction stunk and that is the skill required to bag the pick 4. Taking the first and second favorites wins half the time for any given race, but doesn't help you cash a good one. Hard to believe I burned $24 on this sequence but I do not cherry pick. I pick a day and play. That plan has helped my handicapping as I do not care what type of races are carded just that the fields are full. If they stay green Sunday looks like fun. Good cappin. BBB