View Full Version : Santa Anita 12/30 Analysis
Two bombs that I want to get out of the way here.
Race 5: # 8 Pointing Star
Two sprints and then the stretch out is a patented move by trainers that are trying to teach the horse a thing or two in their first couple of races. McAnally is a bonus here. Also, TG wise, he paired his first two races and a pattern that is talked about within sheet players is the a move forward off paired numbers. Should love the stretch out and is 20/1 ML
Race 6: #7 Indian Chant
Now, I happen to know that Maggi Moss is GUNNING for the owner's title and is running any horse that is ready to run. That being said, this horse has a monster recent work and West is OUTSTANDING 1st claim and off a layoff. At 15/1 ML, this gelding is a GREAT play
Now for the play I have been waiting for:
Race 7: #2 Optari
Flores was a moran last time and never let this horse get clear, not sure he has much of a choice but he should have waited to go wide because he saw daylight, he exploded, only to get checked again and Flores just wrapped the horse up and basically wanted to chalk it up to another day. Anything above 5/2 is a gift on this horse
My plays:
5: 1,7,8,10,11,12
6: 1,7,10,11
7: 2
6x4x1 $24 per $1 (play 5 times so a total of $120)
Race 7: $200 Win 2
If for some reason I find more then the $320 I have here, I will be playing exactas(front and back) with both bombs above....but it might be a "run and shoot" day at the OTB tomorrow (Run up there and get the f out of there before I blow the money I want to wager above)
smuthg
12-29-2006, 10:14 PM
What about the #5- Wellnessfast in the the 5th? 2nd Start, 1st time Lasix... Really like your pick of Optari in the 7th...
What about the #5- Wellnessfast in the the 5th? 2nd Start, 1st time Lasix... Really like your pick of Optari in the 7th...
Not a real big fan of the trainer. Probably will win when they drop him in for a high tag
avance2000
12-30-2006, 08:00 AM
I really like Squallaciuos in the G1 La Brea Stakes.
I see this as one of those races where three connections (Downthedustyroad, River's Prayer, and Win McCool) are going to try to steal the race from the front, and a race that does not appear to have an abundance of early speed will develop into a three-horse speed duel anyway. The fast-closing Squallacious should be there to pick up the pieces.
Her race this spring at 7f (the distance of the La Brea) is the strongest past performance of any of these, and her recent works are strong.
The long layoff does not bother me that much because of the strong works, and because of how sharp she was in her debut, which tells me she is the type that can get fit and ready off a series of fast works.
She is my top pick today.
Gander
12-30-2006, 08:07 AM
I have never seen Squallucious race before so I cant really get a feel for her. I kind of disagree with most because I see a lot of early speed. The 3 that were mentioned (Win McCool, Downadustyroad and Rivers Prayer) as well as Diplomat Lady who breaks from the rail and will have no choice but to gun.
This is a very tough race for me to want to throw down a big bet. I missed Win McCool the day she won at a huge price and it killed me because I had played her the 3 times she lost before that. Not easy to want to take the probable 7/2 or 4/1 on Win McCool shipping out west facing a few toughies.
I see a lot more easier races at Aqu today.
Alright ladies and gentlemen, we are LOCKED AND LOADED for races 5,6,7. Good luck to anyone jumping along
2MinsToPost
12-30-2006, 04:13 PM
I just played a small Pick 4, and a win bet on Win McCool plus the 2 in the 7th;)
2345/27/4/248
$24 for shizits and giggles
2MinsToPost
12-30-2006, 04:21 PM
Scav I ain't rootin against your ticket man, but
I played the 9 to Win and Place in this race, the 5th. Got a hunch:rolleyes:
Scav I ain't rootin against your ticket man, but
I played the 9 to Win and Place in this race, the 5th. Got a hunch:rolleyes:
Your my boy, don't worry....you should get down for $24 on my posted pick three ticket, pays between $200 and infinite, especially if I can get the 8 to run here
hoovesupsideyourhead
12-30-2006, 04:27 PM
i here to mush ya up....who ya like im going 5 tri box 4 level red ,10 forward commitment 8 point of victory 1 southern most point...
Gander
12-30-2006, 04:28 PM
I really like Baffert's 11 horse (Silver Light) here. Hes taking his time with this horse and he was obviously well meant in his debut at 9/5. Look for him to run huge today.
11 horse......in the tri box
My plays:
5: 1,7,8,10,11,12
6: 1,7,10,11
7: 2
6x4x1 $24 per $1 (play 5 times so a total of $120)
Race 7: $200 Win 2
5: 1,7,8,10,11,12
6: 1,7,10,11
7: 2
for price cut and pasteing
hoovesupsideyourhead
12-30-2006, 04:36 PM
i dont care for the 11...he would have a better jock if hes the shizzy
Tough to make up ground when these dipsh its let Victor go .48 up front.
Keep an eye on that 8 horse, decent showing for all the problems he had to today, on the turn I thought he had a decent shot and just faded a little bit
hoovesupsideyourhead
12-30-2006, 04:46 PM
Keep an eye on that 8 horse, decent showing for all the problems he had to today, on the turn I thought he had a decent shot and just faded a little bit
my thoughts exactly..
hoovesupsideyourhead
12-30-2006, 04:52 PM
going 2/3/5/1/4 with 2/8 with 5 with 2/3/1/8 pick four..
Gander
12-30-2006, 04:59 PM
I love the 2 in this race- Like New Money. Betting to win and over three horses in the exacta. Here we go:
$80 win 2
$20 ex 2-1
$15 ex 2/5,7
I have to start giving in to using the chalk sometimes......
Optari opened up at 5/2....
Optari opened up at 5/2....
and now 9/5
Sightseek
12-30-2006, 05:10 PM
Optari opened up at 5/2....
I like him, morning line was 5-1 though...Kolo also bet down.
I like him, morning line was 5-1 though...Kolo also bet down.
Gonna be pissed if this horse goes off at 9/5, would have never bet him at that price
2MinsToPost
12-30-2006, 05:15 PM
and now 9/5
HOW MUCH :D did you put down to win?
Gander
12-30-2006, 05:15 PM
Dont you have a pick 3 going? What are you complaining about?
Sightseek
12-30-2006, 05:16 PM
Sevengoldnmissiles looks better now
Dont you have a pick 3 going? What are you complaining about?
No, I didn't have the 4 horse chalk in teh first leg.....with that 15/1 ML horse that wins in the middle, it is going to pay a bundle
Gander
12-30-2006, 05:18 PM
I'll take a shot with Varsity Blues. Loved the movie so consider this nothing more than a hunch play.
$60 win 10
$10 ex 10/1,2,4,7
My last $100 up in flames. Would have been easier just to flush it down the toilet.
Off for some ice cream. Not even watching this race.
Pick three is paying $161 to the 2.. lowest payout to the 2 by $100....UNBELIEVABLE, I left $800 on the table because I didn't want to put the chalk in.....
Gander
12-30-2006, 05:20 PM
Sorry Scavs. For some reason I thought you used that 4 horse. Mis-read your original post. Still very sick from D Money not getting up. That by the way cost me $2,100.
you hit that 3 horse pretty hard though so you should be ok on the day right?
Gander
12-30-2006, 05:26 PM
you hit that 3 horse pretty hard though so you should be ok on the day right?
I made a little over $800 on the race, but was down $200 from the early double and just under a grand from yesterday. Then I bet 2 Chantal horses pretty good and D Money ($300 to win). Then lost another $240 in the 8th and 9th.
Nope, I am not doing good! Pains me to think at one point I was up 6 for the day.
I had a load to place on Chantal's horse who somehow hung and let the other part of the entry by in the 5th. And you saw D Money.
SCUDSBROTHER
12-30-2006, 05:30 PM
LATE P3
OPtari,V Blues/all but Vague/Grafton
Sightseek
12-30-2006, 05:39 PM
They better not let Law Breaker get away with an easy lead again.....
I thought he was going to take it! 2nd or 3rd
SCUDSBROTHER
12-30-2006, 05:40 PM
Scavs,that's it for playing Chatlos.Just not as good as trainers like Carla.The winner ain't that much,but if you don't fire you can't win,and this lady's horses fire.
Sightseek
12-30-2006, 05:41 PM
God I hope 2nd
:( 3rd, 40-1 Mystery Island nosed him out.
Scavs,that's it for playing Chatlos.Just not as good as trainers like Carla.The winner ain't that much,but if you don't fire you can't win,and this lady's horses fire.
agree, he got lucky with Singletary, don't think he has had a winner since
Gander
12-30-2006, 05:47 PM
Scavs- Get it all back with Exploit Lad in the 1st at Aqu tomorrow. :cool:
Scavs- Get it all back with Exploit Lad in the 1st at Aqu tomorrow. :cool:
Done until the first weekend in February, today was my shot. I am just lucky I hit a horse at Hawthorne while I stopped up there, essentially I didn't lose any money today becuase I was up $320 and I played those tickets for a total of $320, just disappointing
lg1965
12-30-2006, 10:08 PM
What about the #5- Wellnessfast in the the 5th? 2nd Start, 1st time Lasix... Really like your pick of Optari in the 7th...
hope to see them shorten wellnessfast up next race. with a little class relief, we could be looking at 10-1, and he'd be very formidable. this race was a nice step forward from his first. progressing nicely.
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