View Full Version : Saturday Santa Anita Race 7
Optari returns on the turf.
I know many have been waiting for his next race after being blocked the whole stretch at Hollywood in his US debut.
Listed 5-1 morning line. Maybe cut that in half and get 5-2....
Win and Place bet...
PSH
You beat me too it. I AM IN LOVE with that horse tomorrow. I am dropping in and try to recoup for a horrible December.
Will be singling on the end of a pick three and probably a large win wager on him...I love the switch to the mig
And I forgot to mention that they put TWO GREAT betting races before this race so I can go deep and hopefully grab a 15/1 in one of the legs
That 5th is very interesting MSW.
Is Time Squared worth the 1 million purchase price? 5-1 seems generous morning line....
My major play - probably 3/4 of my betting capital will be a win/place on Optari though. I think he can better his euro thorograph figs which should be good enough.
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 09:29 PM
I just watched the replay of the stretch run by Optari when he was boxed in.
There is no doubt that he was severely restricted for the first half or so of the stretch run.
What would concern me however is that with about half a furlong to go the whole trap breaks apart giving him room, and he passes no one. In fact a horse that was running just to his outside actually pass him a little. I would have expected that since he hadn't been asked for his full run that he would have had a lot in reserve for that last moment. I didn't see any late burst.
It makes me wonder if his placing would have been much different even were he to have found a seam earlier.
just my observations.
I just watched the replay of the stretch run by Optari when he was boxed in.
There is no doubt that he was severely restricted for the first half or so of the stretch run.
What would concern me however is that with about half a furlong to go the whole trap breaks apart giving him room, and he passes no one. In fact a horse that was running just to his outside actually pass him a little. I would have expected that since he hadn't been asked for his full run that he would have had a lot in reserve for that last moment. I didn't see any late burst.
It makes me wonder if his placing would have been much different even were he to have found a seam earlier.
just my observations.
Flores wrapped him up....hold on I will watch it again and get you numbers in the stretch that interferred with him again
A) horse was tired from being restrained and not be able to let loose.
B) 7 checked him and the 2 was drifting out, he was asked to split horses like 5 times
C) If Flores timed it right, he would have won that race by 5 lengths, he was locked and loaded. Mig will either shoot the rail or go 4 wide and win by 3-4
D) TRUST ME. UNLOAD AT WILL
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 09:53 PM
A) horse was tired from being restrained and not be able to let loose.
B) 7 checked him and the 2 was drifting out, he was asked to split horses like 5 times
C) If Flores timed it right, he would have won that race by 5 lengths, he was locked and loaded. Mig will either shoot the rail or go 4 wide and win by 3-4
D) TRUST ME. UNLOAD AT WILL
No way does he win that race by five, under any circumstance.
Hey I know you're high on him, but I just wanted to throw my two cents in. In my view he is not the most likely winner tomorrow.
No way does he win that race by five, under any circumstance.
Hey I know you're high on him, but I just wanted to throw my two cents in. In my view he is not the most likely winner tomorrow.
Don't you wear glasses?
OH SNAP
ok, he wins by 3 lengths instead
Mig keeps him 2-3 deep and gets first run because he is THE MIG
blackthroatedwind
12-29-2006, 09:57 PM
Don't you wear glasses?
OH SNAP
ok, he wins by 3 lengths instead
Mig keeps him 2-3 deep and gets first run because he is THE MIG
I'm going to call Mig right now and tell him what kind of anchor he is being saddled with.
I'm going to call Mig right now and tell him what kind of anchor he is being saddled with.
absolutely hilarious :) I love it
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 10:04 PM
Don't you wear glasses?
OH SNAP
ok, he wins by 3 lengths instead
Mig keeps him 2-3 deep and gets first run because he is THE MIG
No I don't.
Its got nothing to do with Mig.
So he gets first run this time. How do you know he has the kind of run that will win this race? You're guessing because you saw him boxed in for so long and you say he got tired. Well if he got tired from being held guess what? He will also get tired from being asked for run as well. I saw nothing in the tank at the end of that race to make me think I should load up. Especially since two horses return from that race that beat him last time, and there are several wild cards in there that could also upset the apple cart.
No I don't.
Its got nothing to do with Mig.
So he gets first run this time. How do you know he has the kind of run that will win this race? You're guessing because you saw him boxed in for so long and you say he got tired. Well if he got tired from being held guess what? He will also get tired from being asked for run as well. I saw nothing in the tank at the end of that race to make me think I should load up. Especially since two horses return from that race that beat him last time, and there are several wild cards in there that could also upset the apple cart.
I am not apple picking tomorrow, I AM JUST PICKING. LOCKED AND LOADED. For fun I tell you
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 10:20 PM
I am not apple picking tomorrow, I AM JUST PICKING. LOCKED AND LOADED. For fun I tell you
Okay good luck then. I just don't see why you would be locked and loaded on this one. I won't have a dime on that horse to win.
I am not apple picking tomorrow, I AM JUST PICKING. LOCKED AND LOADED. For fun I tell you
Isn't this the horse that Frank Lyons picked out for the owners?
I remember how pissed he was on TVG when Flores got blocked the whole stretch and he said he never had a chance to win..
You could tell from his voice he totally expected a win...
Loaded and ready to fire...
Okay good luck then. I just don't see why you would be locked and loaded on this one. I won't have a dime on that horse to win.
in all seriousness, if you look at how he was moving, he was coming up to the turn pretty good and then Flores had to take a hold of him and then couldn't find a hole. For his first race here, I was impressed, and if he runs his euro number, he wins here.
I also like Freesgood a little here, look at that sneaky turf work two back
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 10:32 PM
Isn't this the horse that Frank Lyons picked out for the owners?
I remember how pissed he was on TVG when Flores got blocked the whole stretch and he said he never had a chance to win..
You could tell from his voice he totally expected a win...
Loaded and ready to fire...
All i'm trying to understand is, where does it say that if a horse has no racing room for part of the race, that he would have been the winner had he had room. Its not like he was in the midst of a rally and got cut off. Like I said earlier, when the box around him broke apart late in the race, he did not respond. If I were looking for some sign that being boxed in cost Optari that race, I would at least wanteded to see some late futile burst where he quickly makes up a few lengths when he has the chance. Contrary to that the horse looked like he was done.
Also that was his first mile trip after running in europe at six furlongs three times. To me he appeared head strong in the early going, necessitating the rider to really put on the brakes. This is perhaps why he had no late burst. This horse will need to relax a little more in my opinion to win at one mile.
If I were looking for some sign that being boxed in cost Optari that race, I would at least wanteded to see some late futile burst where he quickly makes up a few lengths when he has the chance.
Ok, I agree with it BUT he was never allowed to stretch his legs after he had a full head of steam going into the turn, that is what I am really baseing this on.
When he had that opening, the 7 drifted down and the 2 drifted out thus cutting off any opportunity to stretch his legs
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 10:36 PM
in all seriousness, if you look at how he was moving, he was coming up to the turn pretty good and then Flores had to take a hold of him and then couldn't find a hole. For his first race here, I was impressed, and if he runs his euro number, he wins here.
I also like Freesgood a little here, look at that sneaky turf work two back
Don't be fooled by euro numbers from six furlong races.
You should be a little concerned about Freesgood here, in addition to others.
If he takes to the surface he could be a big factor.
Don't be fooled by euro numbers from six furlong races.
You should be a little concerned about Freesgood here, in addition to others.
If he takes to the surface he could be a big factor.
I talked about Freesgood, you see that work two back, he might make me change my pick three ticket now
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 10:40 PM
Ok, I agree with it BUT he was never allowed to stretch his legs after he had a full head of steam going into the turn, that is what I am really baseing this on.
When he had that opening, the 7 drifted down and the 2 drifted out thus cutting off any opportunity to stretch his legs
We'll see what happens. I'm just offering a counterpoint cause you said you're locked and loaded.
Maybe I'm way off base, especially if Frank Lyons picked the horse.
We'll see what happens. I'm just offering a counterpoint cause you said you're locked and loaded.
Maybe I'm way off base, especially if Frank Lyons picked the horse.
Other thing I forgot to mention is he is dropping in class, but that could have been a weak Grade 3 so that argument could be weak.
Maybe I am just nuts and chasing too much loot, I don't know. I might be playing a saver with Freesgood now because I agree with you, he takes and he has a huge shot, especially because Free House's progeny improves about 2 points going dirt to turf
SCUDSBROTHER
12-29-2006, 11:14 PM
Well this guy who makes the line is officially on dope.I am not sure anything trained by this guy is gunna fire,but you will not get that 5-1.The only thing that would make somebody think they will get 5-1 is dope,or mental disease.
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 11:20 PM
Other thing I forgot to mention is he is dropping in class, but that could have been a weak Grade 3 so that argument could be weak.
Maybe I am just nuts and chasing too much loot, I don't know. I might be playing a saver with Freesgood now because I agree with you, he takes and he has a huge shot, especially because Free House's progeny improves about 2 points going dirt to turf
With two year olds I don't read too much into the class part of it. And if it is a drop in class then there are four others dropping with him from that race.
I expect that Kolo, who just broke maiden in a fast time, is going to be prominent to the end. I would also give a good shot to Gomez on the rail with Sevengoldnmissles.
ArlJim78
12-29-2006, 11:22 PM
Well this guy who makes the line is officially on dope.I am not sure anything trained by this guy is gunna fire,but you will not get that 5-1.The only thing that would make somebody think they will get 5-1 is dope,or mental disease.
it seems a little high, but remember its a 12 horse field. I would guess 7/2 or 4/1.
ArlJim was right, I was wrong....Optari will burn no more money here....
ArlJim78
12-30-2006, 05:41 PM
With two year olds I don't read too much into the class part of it. And if it is a drop in class then there are four others dropping with him from that race.
I expect that Kolo, who just broke maiden in a fast time, is going to be prominent to the end. I would also give a good shot to Gomez on the rail with Sevengoldnmissles.
Scavs? tried to do my best to warn you.
He flattened like a pancake in the stretch once again.
Scavs? tried to do my best to warn you.
He flattened like a pancake in the stretch once again.
yeah I didn't even bother to look at the whole race. Kolo was a sheet players dream
2Hot4TV
12-31-2006, 08:52 AM
With two year olds I don't read too much into the class part of it. And if it is a drop in class then there are four others dropping with him from that race.
I expect that Kolo, who just broke maiden in a fast time, is going to be prominent to the end. I would also give a good shot to Gomez on the rail with Sevengoldnmissles.
At what point do you handicap a horse to bounce. Kolo was at that point for me.
Gander
12-31-2006, 08:55 AM
I hope you guys that loved Kolo bet him to win instead of just relying on hitting a pick 4 (which is never easy). Not that he payed huge, but if he was that great of a play, you need to cash tickets on those kind of horses. They dont grow on trees.
Thats the downfall of just playing pick 4's and pick 3's. You love one horse and you spread in the other legs, but still can easily lose money when your single jogs home and pays 3/1.
At what point do you handicap a horse to bounce. Kolo was at that point for me.
No way Hot.....Those incremental moves forward almost never produce a bounce, ESPECIALLY in turf racing. It is when a horse goes 10-8-2 and then they rush the horse back in 14-20 days when the sheet players ALL COME OUT and party.
ArlJim78
12-31-2006, 10:36 AM
At what point do you handicap a horse to bounce. Kolo was at that point for me.
Not a bounce candidate for me at all.
a young lightly horse, well handled, incremental improvement each time, this horse hadn't made a big dramatic leap in performance level that might make you think that regression was eminent, she was fast from day one and keeps getting a bit better, and lastly she appeared to be right in the middle of her development spurt. In other words, still room to improve. The maiden win was fast and she looked with herself. What I liked about here is that unlike some others in the race she has natural tactical speed that would guarantee her a prime postion.
Jim:
Thanks for your opposite viewpoint to Optari.
It helped me temper my wager and limit my loss on the race....
It is always hard to admit when one is wrong but the results speak for themselves.
Obviously, i was way wrong here and luckily was still able to produce a profit yesterday...
Good Luck today.... anything that sticks out for you?
I like Her Royal Nibs at Aqu Race 3 to bounce back with a winning effort, the fave Psychotic in the nightcap at Aqueduct and first timer Spinmaster at the nightcap at Turfway...
Paul
ArlJim78
12-31-2006, 10:57 AM
Jim:
Thanks for your opposite viewpoint to Optari.
It helped me temper my wager and limit my loss on the race....
It is always hard to admit when one is wrong but the results speak for themselves.
Obviously, i was way wrong here and luckily was still able to produce a profit yesterday...
Good Luck today.... anything that sticks out for you?
I like Her Royal Nibs at Aqu Race 3 to bounce back with a winning effort, the fave Psychotic in the nightcap at Aqueduct and first timer Spinmaster at the nightcap at Turfway...
Paul
thanks Paul, I don't often counter anyones picks, what do I know? But the way you guys were talking about this lock, i took a look and had a STRONG feeling that it was not going to pan out like you were thinking so I just wanted to put my 2 cents on the table. glad you were able to have a winning day yesterday.
i have just finished going over the turfway card, haven't looked elsewhere yet. You mentioned Spinmaster going out for Romans in the nightcap at turfway. I know you have to respect any well bred 2 yo that Romans sends out, but the 8, 11, and 12 horses all have some decent races under there belts already and so I think Spinmaster will have to be a good thing to win at first asking given the experience edge they have. Also there is another firster that looks like it might pop and that is the 3 Lt. Pat. I will stay away from this race in terms of wagering.
good luck today!
thanks Paul, I don't often counter anyones picks, what do I know? But the way you guys were talking about this lock, i took a look and had a STRONG feeling that it was not going to pan out like you were thinking so I just wanted to put my 2 cents on the table. glad you were able to have a winning day yesterday.
i have just finished going over the turfway card, haven't looked elsewhere yet. You mentioned Spinmaster going out for Romans in the nightcap at turfway. I know you have to respect any well bred 2 yo that Romans sends out, but the 8, 11, and 12 horses all have some decent races under there belts already and so I think Spinmaster will have to be a good thing to win at first asking given the experience edge they have. Also there is another firster that looks like it might pop and that is the 3 Lt. Pat. I will stay away from this race in terms of wagering.
good luck today!
I wish I would have listened like Paul did......
2Hot4TV
12-31-2006, 02:59 PM
No way Hot.....Those incremental moves forward almost never produce a bounce, ESPECIALLY in turf racing. It is when a horse goes 10-8-2 and then they rush the horse back in 14-20 days when the sheet players ALL COME OUT and party.
I have got real good at finding horses in the money when I wager, but when I figure that a bounce is coming, I really stink.
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