12/26: Traditional SA Opening

[Kasept]

Boxing Day brings the return of Santa Anita and the Malibu, the last chance Gr. I for three year olds. A good group of interesting sophs assemble as part of a good late P4...

Hope everyone had a great Christmas..


SELECTIONS -- Santa Anita, 12/26 (R6-9, Late P4)


6th (5:47pm): Cal Breeders Champion, #125,000, 2yo Cal-breds, 7f (DD, P3, P4, .10 Super)
1. #3 PIRATES DEPUTY 3-1: Baffert Bertrando gelding can stalk or rally WON
2. #7 Indian Ashton 6-1: Ward gelding gives away experience but gets Edgar
A. #1e Harris Farms entry 5-1: Gaines' (1a) Street Lights especially intriguing
B. #10 Super Image 4-1: Mason-Baze hit board with outrageous regularity


7th (6:20pm): 7th Sir Beaufort (Gr. III), $100,000, 3yo, 1m-T (DD, P3, .10 Super)

1. #12 Zann 10-1: Post inhibits confidence, but Machowsky runner faced better 3rd
2. #3 Kip Deville 6-1: More comfortable at trip where he's 4/3-0-0 WON
A. #1 In Summation 7-2: Been distinguishing self with move to lawn
B. #2 Crested 6-1: Gelding by Fantastic Light 3rd one here from HOL Derby


8th (6:52pm): 55th Malibu (Gr. I), $250,000, 3yo, 7f (DD, .10 Super)

1. #7 Midnight Lute 4-1: .5L from being perfect and working like a champ 3rd
2. #5 Brother Derek 7-2: May miss extra 1-1.5f, but class of this group
A. #2 Arson Squad 9-2: Has won from 6-9f; Likely to be overbet in tough set
B. #8 Da Stoops 8-1: May slip through betting cracks and has had time 4th

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS: #13 Spring at Last 8-1: Respect Nakatani landing here 2nd


9th (7:22pm): ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (.10 Super)

1. #4 Silk Kerchief 8-1: Fanning High Brite filly sharp and drilled 3x off last win WON
2. #9 Tuff Muffin 8-1: McAnally's closing bay miss never far back at the end
A. #7 The King's Lass 8-1: Walsh bay earned diploma last with GoGo
B. #6 Fun Logic 8-1: Currin-Eisman product wasn't disgraced in stakes tries 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-7
7: 3-12
8: 2-5-7-8-12-13
9: 4-9

2x2x6x2 = $48

$1 P4 (3/3/12/4) $1717.30


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Can't believe Zann lost the photo for 2nd behind Kip... BRUTAL...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

good luck in your pick 4..

[Kasept]

Thanks Matt-O... Live to the 4-9 in the nightcap... Left Latent Heat off the race play but not the P4...Thought he'd contest fast earlier from out there.

Interesting race... Brother Derek with absolutely no where to go. Ric Hammerle said Friday on the radio that Frankel was insistent that 'Heat' was going to win this.. THAT was a good group...

[SentToStud]

Our fearless leader gets it done. Nice, nice ticket!

[Rootdog1]

Congrats Steve....well done.....one more signer before yr end!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Nice Job.The kid (who got it done for you) can sure get it done.Doesn't give up as easily as many do.

[cal828]

Way to go!! That 8th race was tough. Dangerous to leave Frankel out of anything short of the Kentucky Derby, I guess. Congrats to all that had Latent Heat.

[Coach Pants]

Good 'cappin, Steve. I left Latent Heat off my Pick 4 ticket. 3 out of 4.

Had Taylor's Route in the first and Kip Deville in the 7th for a real solid day though.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

nice job man..first rate...batman scores again..

[Kasept]

Thx guys.. I hadn't answered the "Up/Down in '06" thread question yet, but can now safely say "Up" for the year...

This makes up for the $9 loss on the Calder winning 4 the other day!! And to be honest, the ticket cost less than the one I posted this morning...

And you know, we should all recognize from this that there's credence to Bellsbendboy's P4 theories... Two REALLY playable horses in Kip Deville and Latent Heat bring back great mutuels, and then the favorites on either end. $1,700??? Wow.. This is why the "4" is the best bet at the track.

[Gander]

Nice pick 4 Steve. Hope you had a 10 spot on it!

[Kasept]

Nice pick 4 Steve. Hope you had a 10 spot on it!
LOL.. Not a free-wheeler like you TR.. Just $1..

[GPK]

Well done Stevo....

now if T3B can just get off the 3 outta 4 bus at Tampa, maybe we can make some noise around here...

[Gander]

LOL, Having a $1 on that is not too shabby. Well done and I was kidding.

Plus I would have had $100 on it, not $10 :eek:

Now put that money away for a rainy day and declare the meet a victory.

[Sightseek]

Congrats! :)

[point given]

You got it right, good on you :D What a satisfying end to the year . I'll have to pay more attention to this section ;)

[blackthroatedwind]

And you know, we should all recognize from this that there's credence to Bellsbendboy's P4 theories... Two REALLY playable horses in Kip Deville and Latent Heat bring back great mutuels, and then the favorites on either end. $1,700??? Wow.. This is why the "4" is the best bet at the track.

I can't let this go. Come on, obviously a " theory " that says find two solid priced horses to key off in a Pick-4 and you CAN make a lot of money is correct....HOWEVER, finding these two horses and playing your ticket correctly off of them is a whole other story....and one that isn't " writable " for an average of $40....at least not to the tune of making 18 times your investment over time.

I don't think anyone would dispute that a Pick-4 where you have two strong opinions CAN work out well for you and is certainly a situation one should invest in. However, you are likely to be correct with both horses only a small percentage of the time, and while if you're a good handicapper and a good bettor you will find this makes money for you, it is impossible that, first, you will do this with regularity ( especially on small plays ) and secondly that you will have the afformentioned substantial ROI over time.


The Pick-4 is a great bet, and YOU showed us that today, but you have also seen how many times it has proven elusive and a lot harder than it looked beforehand. Mere mortals like us do not have ROIs of $36.24 for every $2 bet.

[randallscott35]

That a boy Steve.

[blackthroatedwind]

That a boy Steve.


Yeah....and that too!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Thx guys.. I hadn't answered the "Up/Down in '06" thread question yet, but can now safely say "Up" for the year...

This makes up for the $9 loss on the Calder winning 4 the other day!! And to be honest, the ticket cost less than the one I posted this morning...

And you know, we should all recognize from this that there's credence to Bellsbendboy's P4 theories... Two REALLY playable horses in Kip Deville and Latent Heat bring back great mutuels, and then the favorites on either end. $1,700??? Wow.. This is why the "4" is the best bet at the track.

It is indeed the best bet at the track.That's atleast $700 above the win parlay.I've seen people hide money in the p4,but even more often in the p3(for instance,the pick 3 ending in the Malibu only paid the win parlay of about $150,and Steve got over 11x that much for continuing on with the 9/2 in the last.)Andy,the amount of $$ to put in depends on how strongly a player feels about the horses in the 4 races.The situation is simply different all the time.The pick 6 is a much different situation.$48 on a pick 4 is not necessarily too little to play on a pick 4 on a regular basis. Sure,your chances go up if you spend more,but Steve can be wrong almost 40 times in a row now(playing $48) before he goes in the red.

[Bogey]

Nice Hit, I sure wished I would've included your boy Kip Deville. Now that's the way to start a meet.