P6-FEST: Brad Free on HOL

[Kasept]

The biggest of Wednesday's three carryovers is Hollywood's $540,000k pot which will likely press towards $1.7 million by the time the third race runs to start the sequence...

DRF's West Coast guru Brad Free joined us on ATRAB Tuesday to go over the sextet, and we're happy to offer his tab as something of a Derby Trail exclusive. Free offered a 'partner ticket' for $840 that uses 7 horses in the difficult first leg, as well as a budget play ($120) that singles the Marques entry in that race. Below Brad's suggestion(s), are my own view of the HOL card and a P6 version for $192...

In addition to the big prize Wednesday, TVG also sweetens the deal with 2 guaranteed P4's (R3-6 & R5-8)... No shortage of action for serious players today!


SELECTIONS -- Hollywood Park, P6 (Races 3-8)

Brad Free's P6 suggestion:

3rd: MDN CLM, 8.5f (P6, DD, P3, TVG $150k Guaranteed P4)

#1-1a Marques entry 6-5
#3 Ascoreinglady 10-1
#4 California Laura 8-1
#5 Velocity Cat 10-1
#6 Truly Madera 5-1
#7 Seeing Grace 10-1
#8 Classy Dish 4-1


4th: CLM, 8.5f-T (DD, P3)

#3 Ferndale Sal 9-5
#4 Pistol Creek 2-1
#7 Full In 4-1


5th: CLM, 7f (P3, DD, TVG $150k Guaranteed P4)

#8 Tommyland 8-1


6th: MDN CLM, 6.5f (DD, P3)

#2 Sanmali 6-1
#8 Palm Breeze 5-2 Scratched


7th: ALW/N$Y, 7f (DD)

#1 Romeo Plus 6-1
#2 Buckland Manor 5-2
#3 Truly a Judge 3-1
#4 Harvard Avenue 2-1
#5 Gotaghostofachance 3-1


8th: Cal-bred MSW, 1m-T

#2 She's All Magic 7-2
#9 Imagine 4-1


The P6 Play(s):

Big ticket option: 7x3x1x1x5x2 = 210 x $2 = $420 (7 horses in R3)

Budget option 1x3x1x1x5x2 = 30 x $2 = $60 (singling #1e in R3)



Steve's Hollywood Selections (Race numbers in red = Superfecta events)


3rd: MDN CLM, 8.5f (P6, DD, P3, TVG $150k Guaranteed P4)

1. #1-1a Marques entry 6-5 WON $3.00 $2.20 $2.10
2. #8 Classy Dish 4-1 3rd
A. #5 Velocity Cat 10-1 4th
B. #6 Truly Madera 5-1 2nd

EX BX/KY: $7.40 ($1)
TRI BX/KY: $17.10 ($1)
SUPER BX/KY: $86.40 ($1)


4th: CLM, 8.5f-T (DD, P3)

1. #7 Full In 4-1 WON $12.40 $6.00 $2.60
2. #3 Ferndale Sal 9-5 3rd
3. #4 Pistol Creek 2-1 2nd

DD: $21.60 ($2)
EX BX/KY: $23.10 ($1)
TRI BX/KY $55.80 ($1)


5th: CLM, 7f (P3, DD, TVG $150k Guaranteed P4)

1. #2 High Z 15-1
2. #4 Riley's Life 6-1 WON
A. #8 Tommyland 8-1
B. #5 I B Bad 2-1 2nd

LONGSHOT ALERT: #11 Scratched

EX BX: $14.40 ($1)
DD: $74.20 ($2)
P3: $95.60 ($1)


6th: MDN CLM, 6.5f (DD, P3)

1. #8 Scratched
2. #6 Scratched
A. #2 Sanmali 6-1 2nd
B. #3 Jump Rope Girl 3-1 WON
C. #1 Mahalo Lani 5-1

DD: $40.60 ($2)
EX BX: $16.50 ($1)
P3: $185.50 ($1)


7th: ALW/N$Y, 7f (DD)

1. #5 Gotaghostofachance 3-1
2. #3 Truly a Judge 3-1
3. #4 Harvard Avenue 2-1 WON

DD: $20.00 ($2)
P3: $69.60 ($1)


8th: Cal-bred MSW, 1m-T

1. #2 She's All Magic 7-2
2. #9 Imagine 4-1 2nd
A. #8 Valley Storm 4-1 WON
B. #4 Proud Cecy 8-1


<$200 Pick 6 Play:

3: 1e-8
4: 3-7
5: 2-4-5-8
6: 2-3
7: 5
8: 2-8-9

2x2x4x2x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

5 of 6 pays $144.80


<$50 P4 Plays: There was NO Early P4 here.. DRF Quick Sheet had one listed.. Sorry..

5: 2-5-8-11
6: 2-3
7: 3-5
8: 2-8-9

4x2x2x3 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[oracle80]

My Hollywood ticket pending late changes

3rd- 1,4
4th- 3
5th- 5,8
6th- 1,3,4,8
7th- 2,3,5,6
8th- 1,2,6,8,9

[Rootdog1]

Oracle - I am on the fence about using #1 Tea Cakes in the 9th....are you using it as a defensive stance or do you see something you really like?

[Pedigree Ann]

I hesitate to post anything on here, as I am not a specialist in handicapping. (Pedigrees are my thing; well, history, too.)

3rd 1,4 : both parts of the entry look good to me, the straight 1 comes from a solid family and has the Secretariat/Sir Gaylord thing going for her. The 4 is also from a solid family, Sherman good second off the claim (31%)

4th: 4 , yes I see Ferndale Sal in here, but I doubt he can get up when the 1 leads the 4 through fractions of approx 24 and 48. The 4 will sit off the slow pace and keep on in a one-paced style. (My take - could be totally wrong).

5th: 7,8; I think this is a ton o' speed race - I count 6 horses who want to be up on or close to the lead. Sets it up for a closer, going with the best looking ones IMHO.

6th: 3 ; If the blinkers on don't turn the 4 into a speed demon (and her works since her last race don't indicate it), 3 will have the lead to herself; first drop into claimers, should be able to keep going.

7th: 4 ; Don't like horses going 7f first off the layoff - 6f, yes, 7f no. I see the 3 and 5 going at it thru the early furlongs, and the 4 picking up the pieces.

8th: 2,6 ; 6 gets a jock upgrade, has been close in this sort of race. Two sprints to get fit, then the stretch out on turf, with blinkers off for Mullins is the 2's angle. The 2 is bred to be a turfer, dam a Royal Academy mare who was a half-sister to a monster mare named Horlicks - Japan Cup winner, won 5 G1s in Australia and New Zealand on turf.

Okay, educate me. What am I overlooking? what am I paying too much attention to? Always trying to learn more.

[Rootdog1]

Steve - Read elsewhere that Judge really needs the race and connections are hoping for 3rd. Also, with the scratches in the 6th...."might" want to add the Storm Boot first timer......

[ceejay]

1 /1,4 /6,7 /3 /2 /9
1 /3,6,7 /6,7 /3 /1 /9
1 /3,6,7 /6,7 /1 /2 /9
1 /3,6,7 /4 /3 /2 /9,6
1 /3,6,7 /6,7 /3 /2 /9,6,5
1 /3,6,7 /4 /7 /2 /9
1 /3,6,7 /6,7 /7 /2 /9,6

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

im going to take a shot
race 3
pp 1 entry
pp 6 truly madra
pp 8 according

race 4
pp 3 ferndale
pp 7 full in

race 5
pp 8 tommy land
pp 7 keg tap
pp 5 ib bad
pp 6 scofield

race 6
pp 3 jumprope girl

race 7
pp 4 harvard ave
race 8
5 pair of events
2 shees all magic... 96 bucks...

[ArlJim78]

I'm not convinced on the entry in the 3rd. I think it might kill a lot of tickets right off the bat.

3- 1,6,8
4- 1,4
5- 4,5,7
6- 3,4,7
7- 1,2,4,5
8- 2,6

[Rootdog1]

1,6
1,3,4
5
3,4,7
5
1,4,9

[Rootdog1]

The 6 was much the best......way too much trouble on the rail

[Coach Pants]

Hollywoooood late pick 4
5,7,8/3,5/4/2,6,9
$2=$36

[Coach Pants]

Change the name to I B Second.

[Coach Pants]

Change the name to I B Second.
$4 pick 3
2,3,5/4/1,2,6

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

chop chop is in the house..nice ride

[oracle80]

im going to take a shot
race 3
pp 1 entry
pp 6 truly madra
pp 8 according

race 4
pp 3 ferndale
pp 7 full in

race 5
pp 8 tommy land
pp 7 keg tap
pp 5 ib bad
pp 6 scofield

race 6
pp 3 jumprope girl

race 7
pp 4 harvard ave
race 8
5 pair of events
2 shees all magic... 96 bucks...

Alive for five, that aint too bad considering you would get it four times.
Definitely be a profitable 96 dollar play if you can connect the last.

[hockey2315]

I'm pulling for you hooves. . . does the 5 looked washed out or is that just me?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

nope but i know whooooo did.....yeeeeees bam bam byk is in town...the capp master general!!!!!!!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

nope but i know whooooo did.....yeeeeees bam bam byk is in town...the capp master general!!!!!!!

So,Steve, 30 years from now,which name are you going to remember??
Harvard Avenue,or Gottaghostofachance? You'll have trouble getting one out of your head(that's for sure.)

[Kasept]

So,Steve, 30 years from now,which name are you going to remember?? Harvard Avenue, or Gottaghostofachance? You'll have trouble getting one out of your head(that's for sure.)

Funny thing is I love Harvard Avenue... Old time Yahoo era Derby Trailers may remember write ups with him from his 3yo campaign.. (Without laying off my screw up, I will say a certain West Coast handicapper/writer actually got me off him as the single...) It's also the 2nd time in 10 days that O'Neill has whacked me out of an important hit. Thor's Echo quashed my early BC P4 too..

Fun afternoon though... Hope everyonew did well!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ive got one.. a helen pitts charge that beat us out the magna 5 for 68k.....what was the name..i started with an E......

[Mike_79]

ive got one.. a helen pitts charge that beat us out the magna 5 for 68k.....what was the name..i started with an E......

Einstein. Wouldn't let Go Deputy by him.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Einstein. Wouldn't let Go Deputy by him.
YEP...THAT HURT..ALOT.....this game is brutal...to get kicked and keep going..is the true measure of a cappers will...hats off to steve great job!!!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,Steve,all I can tell ya is that I don't see a page of wins when I look at the form for Harvard Avenue.I even see a couple optional claimers that he didn't win.He got a complete set-up today,and Espinoza was very hot.That combination can make people look stupid.The 2 horses were pretty even in my book.Ghost had more wins(in fewer races,)but the human connections were all heavily in favor of Harvard.Not an easy choice(although it appears so easy now.)

[Kasept]

Well,Steve,all I can tell ya is that I don't see a page of wins when I look at the form for Harvard Avenue.I even see a couple optional claimers that he didn't win.He got a complete set-up today,and Espinoza was very hot.That combination can make people look stupid.The 2 horses were pretty even in my book.Ghost had more wins(in fewer races,)but the human connections were all heavily in favor of Harvard.Not an easy choice(although it appears so easy now.)

I know Steve, but I went against the obvious fact that Stein NEVER has them ready off the break... The mistake in the series was not trusting the entry enough in the opener. I liked Classy Dish a lot in that race and now I wish I had singled there and used both Harvard and Ghost later on. Didn't need to go deeper than Riley's Life and High Z in the 5th either.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I know Steve, but I went against the obvious fact that Stein NEVER has them ready off the break... The mistake in the series was not trusting the entry enough in the opener. I liked Classy Dish a lot in that race and now I wish I had singled there and used both Harvard and Ghost later on. Didn't need to go deeper than Riley's Life and High Z in the 5th either.

The horse came a very game 2nd to Imperialism(in a 7f grade 2 at Del Mar) off about a year layoff(with this slob training him.)He has been a very game horse.If it was an easy decision,your boy MIKEY wouldn't have gone 4 deep in there.As far as those 2 year old maiden 32k claiming fillies go,those beasts are the reason I wouldn't try to hit that p6 today.That is simply frog betting.

[MISTERGEE]

Any Carryovers Tomorrow Anywhere? Or Is It Pic 6 Letdown Time

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Bay Meadows Pick 6 $21,303

Hawthorne Pick 6 $11,057

To answer your question,no, no worthwhile carryovers.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

I know Steve, but I went against the obvious fact that Stein NEVER has them ready off the break... The mistake in the series was not trusting the entry enough in the opener. I liked Classy Dish a lot in that race and now I wish I had singled there and used both Harvard and Ghost later on. Didn't need to go deeper than Riley's Life and High Z in the 5th either.
guilty as charged..i did the same thing not trusting the entry then with 4 horses leaving off p val mulhal..doh

[Pedigree Ann]

As far as those 2 year old maiden 32k claiming fillies go,those beasts are the reason I wouldn't try to hit that p6 today.That is simply frog betting.

Hey, I do best in picking maiden claiming races. Nailed both of them in this Pick 6. It is stakes races I can't figure very well.