Kitan
04-08-2015, 12:46 AM
Very intriguing Wednesday card with lots of value enticing some bigger plays. Hopefully the rains stay away.
Race 1:
#1 Bruised Orange: Ward has two, but this one sports the quickest work and by far has the more sprint inclined pedigree. Bred for the mud if it happens to rain. Clean break and will be gone from the rail.
Race 2:
#6 Tony B: Missed a few works heading into his last and the turf try is irrelevant. Form prior to that makes him tough to beat here. Arguably his best race came over this strip, when wet, and he's been kept primed in the mornings.
#7 Pulpit's Legacy: Looks best suited sprinting and it was a solid effort in his only try on the track. A great stalking trip seems likely.
#5 Cadet Captain: Roughed around when returning at FG and he missed his final work heading into his second up run. Based on the recent tactics of rivals he might get loose on the lead which might lead to the necessary career best.
#2 Whyruawesome: Hit and miss runner from a barn that doesn't do well when sending them away from home. Shows up without a work since his last and I'll look elsewhere, especially at 2-1 ML.
Race 3:
#2 A. P. Indian: Superb form prior to the extended layoff (5 lengths clear of Bradester, 1 length clear of Moonshine Mullin). Returned with a smashing win and will be very hard to run down. Mustn't bounce.
#1 Rapscallion: Runs best when on a soft lead and am wary of that given that my top pick doesn't always try a wire job. This may not be his best distance but a definite upgrade if it's sloppy.
#3 Transparent: Hasn't shown much in his last two and I won't be using him heavily, but his back class alone may good enough here.
#6 Geothermal: Surface not a problem and expect further improvement third off the bench. Didn't run great off a similar ship last year which is a concern.
#4 hasn't run well on this track previously and has an extremely sketchy worktab. Not for me.
Race 4:
To quote Mr. Byk..."treacherous bunch"©...ALL race.
Race 5:
#2 Creative Spirit: Returned in Florida off a long-term layoff with only four works. Caught four wide feeling the breeze yet still battled on gamely in a race where the closers did best. Turf ability in the family and she'll be much fitter for this. Casse doesn't have a great record on the grass at Keeneland, and only three works since the last, but this may be the one.
#6 Lahinch Classics: Been given plenty of time to settle in. Kept good company in Ireland and Brown dangerous with these sorts.
#9 Eastern Belle: Another live shipper given ample acclimatization in Florida. Might want further.
#11 Valseuse: Potential Lukas random wakeup type returning to the surface she belongs on.
#7 Zloty: Thought she might have needed her last and the performance confirmed that, hitting the front and eventually coming up short. However, Castellano (and Velazquez) head to non-Pletcher imports which is a strong worry.
Race 6:
#5 Wild and Unbridled: Dam won her debut and he has been the definition of speedy in the mornings. Barn rates him highly.
#1 Abdaar: Wasn't originally entered in this re-drawn race but Brown must think he's ready to go on debut after shipping just over a week ago and working three days ago. Sibling sprinted.
#4 Greek Week: Steady stream of quick works for this son of a stakes caliber dam.
#9 Boone Station: Sports a handful of bullets for KMcL. Dam won the Princess Rooney (6f G1).
#8 How About Him: Missed three weeks of works prior to debut. A chance to improve and impress in a wide-open maiden encounter. Racing edge will help.
Race 7:
#10 Makin' Sense: Slow to begin without Lasix on debut but followed that up with a great second to KY Oaks key runner I'm A Chatterbox. Backed that up with a solid win before flopping on the turf after flying early. Went into her last off a 52 second dawdle of a breeze and as a result couldn't keep up with the 44 and 4 half with ice cold Goncalves. Three solid morning moves and the blinkers stay on. Look for Geroux to send and put her in a great spot. If she doesn't lead she'll flank the Jones runner and will eventually wear down that sprinter type.
#11 Genre: Caught wide from a similar draw in a G2 but they shouldn't sizzle like that early in this. Tries two-turns for the first time but pedigree suggests that won't be an issue. Pletcher 6 for 13 in the last five when adding blinkers for the first time at KEE. At the very least the addition signals the intent to be placed in an advantageous forward spot.
#8 Pramedya: Strong finish on debut at Tampa and bred to want more ground than that initial 6.5f. More to come, and an unexpected early duel would thoroughly help.
#6 Ahh Chocolate: Another that won on debut showing a bold turn of foot. 24-1 that day so must show that wasn't a fluke.
Race 8:
Don't have a strong opinion of this race, but I wouldn't be willing to play the favs and #10 Songsational has been somewhat impressive in his first two. Continues to work sharply and I'll try him to go three for three.
#9 Set the Sail is worth a look as well. One try on the dirt wasn't that bad as he got away slowly and got further back than wanted. Closed fine running back in 19 days and seems to be taking to the surface well in the works. That must be the reason they try him specifically on the surface, not off-turf, and a sibling was dual SW on the dirt, albeit sprinting. Can't resist at 20-1 ML.
Race 9:
Another untrustworthy group. Maker and Sharp runners most likely as the rest look a cut below. A bomb could pop up making the ALL button very tempting but will give in against it.
Pick Threes
Race 1: $1 1/5, 6, 7/1, 2, 3, 6 $12
Race 2: $1 6/1, 2/ALL(11) $22
Race 3: $1 2/ALL(11)/2 $11
Race 5: $0.60 2, 6, 9, 11/1, 4, 5, 8, 9/8, 10, 11 $36
Race 6: $1 5/6, 8/9, 10 $4
Race 6: $4 5/10, 11/9, 10 $16
Race 6: $1 5/10, 11/2, 3, 6, 8, 11 $10
$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 5, 6, 7
Race 3: 2
Race 4: ALL (11)
Race 5: 2, 6, 9, 11
$79.20
$0.60 Pick Five
Race 5: 2, 6, 9, 11
Race 6: 1, 5
Race 7: 8, 10, 11
Race 8: 9, 10
Race 9: 7, 11
$57.60
$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 6: 1, 5
Race 7: 6, 8, 10, 11
Race 8: 9, 10
Race 9: 7, 11
$19.20
Good luck!
Race 1:
#1 Bruised Orange: Ward has two, but this one sports the quickest work and by far has the more sprint inclined pedigree. Bred for the mud if it happens to rain. Clean break and will be gone from the rail.
Race 2:
#6 Tony B: Missed a few works heading into his last and the turf try is irrelevant. Form prior to that makes him tough to beat here. Arguably his best race came over this strip, when wet, and he's been kept primed in the mornings.
#7 Pulpit's Legacy: Looks best suited sprinting and it was a solid effort in his only try on the track. A great stalking trip seems likely.
#5 Cadet Captain: Roughed around when returning at FG and he missed his final work heading into his second up run. Based on the recent tactics of rivals he might get loose on the lead which might lead to the necessary career best.
#2 Whyruawesome: Hit and miss runner from a barn that doesn't do well when sending them away from home. Shows up without a work since his last and I'll look elsewhere, especially at 2-1 ML.
Race 3:
#2 A. P. Indian: Superb form prior to the extended layoff (5 lengths clear of Bradester, 1 length clear of Moonshine Mullin). Returned with a smashing win and will be very hard to run down. Mustn't bounce.
#1 Rapscallion: Runs best when on a soft lead and am wary of that given that my top pick doesn't always try a wire job. This may not be his best distance but a definite upgrade if it's sloppy.
#3 Transparent: Hasn't shown much in his last two and I won't be using him heavily, but his back class alone may good enough here.
#6 Geothermal: Surface not a problem and expect further improvement third off the bench. Didn't run great off a similar ship last year which is a concern.
#4 hasn't run well on this track previously and has an extremely sketchy worktab. Not for me.
Race 4:
To quote Mr. Byk..."treacherous bunch"©...ALL race.
Race 5:
#2 Creative Spirit: Returned in Florida off a long-term layoff with only four works. Caught four wide feeling the breeze yet still battled on gamely in a race where the closers did best. Turf ability in the family and she'll be much fitter for this. Casse doesn't have a great record on the grass at Keeneland, and only three works since the last, but this may be the one.
#6 Lahinch Classics: Been given plenty of time to settle in. Kept good company in Ireland and Brown dangerous with these sorts.
#9 Eastern Belle: Another live shipper given ample acclimatization in Florida. Might want further.
#11 Valseuse: Potential Lukas random wakeup type returning to the surface she belongs on.
#7 Zloty: Thought she might have needed her last and the performance confirmed that, hitting the front and eventually coming up short. However, Castellano (and Velazquez) head to non-Pletcher imports which is a strong worry.
Race 6:
#5 Wild and Unbridled: Dam won her debut and he has been the definition of speedy in the mornings. Barn rates him highly.
#1 Abdaar: Wasn't originally entered in this re-drawn race but Brown must think he's ready to go on debut after shipping just over a week ago and working three days ago. Sibling sprinted.
#4 Greek Week: Steady stream of quick works for this son of a stakes caliber dam.
#9 Boone Station: Sports a handful of bullets for KMcL. Dam won the Princess Rooney (6f G1).
#8 How About Him: Missed three weeks of works prior to debut. A chance to improve and impress in a wide-open maiden encounter. Racing edge will help.
Race 7:
#10 Makin' Sense: Slow to begin without Lasix on debut but followed that up with a great second to KY Oaks key runner I'm A Chatterbox. Backed that up with a solid win before flopping on the turf after flying early. Went into her last off a 52 second dawdle of a breeze and as a result couldn't keep up with the 44 and 4 half with ice cold Goncalves. Three solid morning moves and the blinkers stay on. Look for Geroux to send and put her in a great spot. If she doesn't lead she'll flank the Jones runner and will eventually wear down that sprinter type.
#11 Genre: Caught wide from a similar draw in a G2 but they shouldn't sizzle like that early in this. Tries two-turns for the first time but pedigree suggests that won't be an issue. Pletcher 6 for 13 in the last five when adding blinkers for the first time at KEE. At the very least the addition signals the intent to be placed in an advantageous forward spot.
#8 Pramedya: Strong finish on debut at Tampa and bred to want more ground than that initial 6.5f. More to come, and an unexpected early duel would thoroughly help.
#6 Ahh Chocolate: Another that won on debut showing a bold turn of foot. 24-1 that day so must show that wasn't a fluke.
Race 8:
Don't have a strong opinion of this race, but I wouldn't be willing to play the favs and #10 Songsational has been somewhat impressive in his first two. Continues to work sharply and I'll try him to go three for three.
#9 Set the Sail is worth a look as well. One try on the dirt wasn't that bad as he got away slowly and got further back than wanted. Closed fine running back in 19 days and seems to be taking to the surface well in the works. That must be the reason they try him specifically on the surface, not off-turf, and a sibling was dual SW on the dirt, albeit sprinting. Can't resist at 20-1 ML.
Race 9:
Another untrustworthy group. Maker and Sharp runners most likely as the rest look a cut below. A bomb could pop up making the ALL button very tempting but will give in against it.
Pick Threes
Race 1: $1 1/5, 6, 7/1, 2, 3, 6 $12
Race 2: $1 6/1, 2/ALL(11) $22
Race 3: $1 2/ALL(11)/2 $11
Race 5: $0.60 2, 6, 9, 11/1, 4, 5, 8, 9/8, 10, 11 $36
Race 6: $1 5/6, 8/9, 10 $4
Race 6: $4 5/10, 11/9, 10 $16
Race 6: $1 5/10, 11/2, 3, 6, 8, 11 $10
$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 5, 6, 7
Race 3: 2
Race 4: ALL (11)
Race 5: 2, 6, 9, 11
$79.20
$0.60 Pick Five
Race 5: 2, 6, 9, 11
Race 6: 1, 5
Race 7: 8, 10, 11
Race 8: 9, 10
Race 9: 7, 11
$57.60
$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 6: 1, 5
Race 7: 6, 8, 10, 11
Race 8: 9, 10
Race 9: 7, 11
$19.20
Good luck!