ateamstupid
01-24-2015, 12:25 AM
Make sure you handicap for a wet track as we're expecting substantial snow/rain overnight into tomorrow. The snow is supposed to turn to rain by dawn, so I highly doubt they'll cancel. But definitely a sloppy track.
Race 1: 3YO NY-bred 25k MCL (1 mile)
One thing's for sure is I don't want anyone out of that horrendous New Year's Eve finale race. #5 Igotthediscoinme is the horse to beat on paper, but is untested beyond 6f and he hasn't exactly been flying home in his sprints. My only 'clever' idea is #7 Wild Ham for the very underrated Jimmy Ryerson, but something tells me others will see the same things and he won't be his 5-1 M/L. First of all, he only has one slow race, which is a positive in a field like this. Secondly, he broke from the rail in a big field in his debut and didn't get away all that well. Then he chased a very fast first 1/4 before packing it in late against practically a different species from this group. His pedigree screams sprint, but with a better draw outside of the other speed, I like him in here. #2 Norm the Giant also fits the bill of an interesting new face, again with only one slow race against better for a dangerous trainer in Carl Domino. Unlike Wild Ham, this one is actually bred to be much better going longer. Rudy's firster #1 Cement Job also has to be respected if bet at all for Michael Dubb.
A: 1,2,7
B: 5
2nd: 4+ 25k Clm (6 furlongs)
Somehow #7 Be Bullish is still the horse to beat in this kind of field at the ripe old age of 10. Draws ideally and is just a pro's pro. #1 Doc Almon is coming into this off a career top effort and Gary Gullo is firing on all cylinders right now. What's more, these two look like the controlling speeds in the race but neither is headstrong, so it seems fairly likely they'll run 1-2 around the track. I like the cutback for #5 Hurry Up Alan off a new top and switch back to Jacobson, but I think he'll be hindered by the lack of pace.
A: 7
B: 1
C: 3,5
3rd: Rego Park NY-Bred Stakes (6 furlongs)
There figures to be a much more honest pace in here, with at least 3 of the 4 inside horses seemingly having designs on the lead. That bodes well for #5 Deficit Hawk, who was very impressive in his debut, stalking a very fast opening 1/4 but only doing so under urging, then making a 4-wide sweep to the lead and gamely holding off the clear place horse. His draw and a more patient ride figure to give him a nice 2nd-flight trip in here and he's the horse to beat for my money. #6 Saratoga Dreamer is a very interesting shipper for Christophe Clement. He took significant money in his debut and responded with a very professional win sprinting on the turf. He was nowhere to be found in the G2 Summer next out and hasn't been seen in 133 days, but he gets 1st time Lasix and also figures to pull a nice trip. I'm against #2 Regal Minister, who has to deal with other speed and whose form is dressed up. The Beyer on his debut win has proven to be phony and in his other win, he had everything his own way. You could argue that his last, a route in which he ran a 51 Beyer and was beaten 12 3/4 lengths, was his best race considering circumstances.
A: 5,6
B: none
C: 2
4th: 3YO Md Sp Wt (6 furlongs)
#4 King Rontos looks primed to finally break his maiden after running a huge 2nd 12/13 behind the very impressive Ocean Knight. I love the 3-furlong blowout two days prior to the race and I think this will be his day. #2 Jackson P ran a big race in his debut for a very sharp out-of-town trainer. He took a lot of money, broke inwardly at the start, was rushed up to set a strong pace and was the only one of the early leaders still in reach late, losing by an unlucky neck to the perfect-trip winner. With a better gate jockey this time, he could be dangerous on the lead. He's also bred to appreciate a wet track. #8 Ekhlaas is also an imposing pace player getting 1st Lasix for McLaughlin and also possessing a strong wet-track pedigree.
A: 4
B: 2,8
C: 1,5,6
5th: 4+ Clm 20k (1 mile)
This is a nice, deep field, but if I can get live to #2 Days Ride (appears to be rounding back to 12/4 race that would crush these, has proven the wetter the better for him) and #1A Moonluck (figures to stalk a moderate pace in good position, despite his issues runs very consistent numbers). #6 Chairman Now worries me a bit potentially getting loose on the lead under CC for Chris Englehart, but I'll mostly live and die with the top two.
A: 1,2
B: none
C: 6
I'll adjust for scratches in the morning. :$:
Race 1: 3YO NY-bred 25k MCL (1 mile)
One thing's for sure is I don't want anyone out of that horrendous New Year's Eve finale race. #5 Igotthediscoinme is the horse to beat on paper, but is untested beyond 6f and he hasn't exactly been flying home in his sprints. My only 'clever' idea is #7 Wild Ham for the very underrated Jimmy Ryerson, but something tells me others will see the same things and he won't be his 5-1 M/L. First of all, he only has one slow race, which is a positive in a field like this. Secondly, he broke from the rail in a big field in his debut and didn't get away all that well. Then he chased a very fast first 1/4 before packing it in late against practically a different species from this group. His pedigree screams sprint, but with a better draw outside of the other speed, I like him in here. #2 Norm the Giant also fits the bill of an interesting new face, again with only one slow race against better for a dangerous trainer in Carl Domino. Unlike Wild Ham, this one is actually bred to be much better going longer. Rudy's firster #1 Cement Job also has to be respected if bet at all for Michael Dubb.
A: 1,2,7
B: 5
2nd: 4+ 25k Clm (6 furlongs)
Somehow #7 Be Bullish is still the horse to beat in this kind of field at the ripe old age of 10. Draws ideally and is just a pro's pro. #1 Doc Almon is coming into this off a career top effort and Gary Gullo is firing on all cylinders right now. What's more, these two look like the controlling speeds in the race but neither is headstrong, so it seems fairly likely they'll run 1-2 around the track. I like the cutback for #5 Hurry Up Alan off a new top and switch back to Jacobson, but I think he'll be hindered by the lack of pace.
A: 7
B: 1
C: 3,5
3rd: Rego Park NY-Bred Stakes (6 furlongs)
There figures to be a much more honest pace in here, with at least 3 of the 4 inside horses seemingly having designs on the lead. That bodes well for #5 Deficit Hawk, who was very impressive in his debut, stalking a very fast opening 1/4 but only doing so under urging, then making a 4-wide sweep to the lead and gamely holding off the clear place horse. His draw and a more patient ride figure to give him a nice 2nd-flight trip in here and he's the horse to beat for my money. #6 Saratoga Dreamer is a very interesting shipper for Christophe Clement. He took significant money in his debut and responded with a very professional win sprinting on the turf. He was nowhere to be found in the G2 Summer next out and hasn't been seen in 133 days, but he gets 1st time Lasix and also figures to pull a nice trip. I'm against #2 Regal Minister, who has to deal with other speed and whose form is dressed up. The Beyer on his debut win has proven to be phony and in his other win, he had everything his own way. You could argue that his last, a route in which he ran a 51 Beyer and was beaten 12 3/4 lengths, was his best race considering circumstances.
A: 5,6
B: none
C: 2
4th: 3YO Md Sp Wt (6 furlongs)
#4 King Rontos looks primed to finally break his maiden after running a huge 2nd 12/13 behind the very impressive Ocean Knight. I love the 3-furlong blowout two days prior to the race and I think this will be his day. #2 Jackson P ran a big race in his debut for a very sharp out-of-town trainer. He took a lot of money, broke inwardly at the start, was rushed up to set a strong pace and was the only one of the early leaders still in reach late, losing by an unlucky neck to the perfect-trip winner. With a better gate jockey this time, he could be dangerous on the lead. He's also bred to appreciate a wet track. #8 Ekhlaas is also an imposing pace player getting 1st Lasix for McLaughlin and also possessing a strong wet-track pedigree.
A: 4
B: 2,8
C: 1,5,6
5th: 4+ Clm 20k (1 mile)
This is a nice, deep field, but if I can get live to #2 Days Ride (appears to be rounding back to 12/4 race that would crush these, has proven the wetter the better for him) and #1A Moonluck (figures to stalk a moderate pace in good position, despite his issues runs very consistent numbers). #6 Chairman Now worries me a bit potentially getting loose on the lead under CC for Chris Englehart, but I'll mostly live and die with the top two.
A: 1,2
B: none
C: 6
I'll adjust for scratches in the morning. :$: