Kitan
08-15-2014, 01:44 AM
Nothing excited me from the first six races. #8 at big odds could run a good one in the opener and #2 stands out in the 2nd, albeit is no value, but that's about it.
Race 7:
#1 Trecastle is my single. Ran great on debut from a tough spot without lasix. Couldn't stay the full 12f in his second start. Was short last time. Ready to roll today.
#6 and #8 have had their chances and I'm on the fence about #10. Maybe #9 at a big price has a chance. Nothing else of interest.
Race 8:
#3 Tabreed really should win this. Lost a lot of ground at Arlington last out and her two Stateside victories have been at 9f. Should get a favourable pace scenario. If she doesn't fire then Clement's other runner, #5 Maximova, should pick up the pieces. Back to form last time, and her that form gives her a strong chance.
#6 Red Hot Tweet will be a bit of a price, and soft turf aside has never really run a bad race on this surface. Though I'm not sure if her best is good enough to win here.
Race 9:
I think that any of the eight can win this.
#1 Saratoga Snacks is 6 for 8 on a fast track, with his only non top two placing coming after a poor start in the G1 Cigar Mile. Mott should have him ready off the layoff.
#7 Amberjack got in a nice prep race last time and will be closer to his best here for Hushion who excels in this spot. Not happy to see Alvarado on the inside runner, however.
#2 Brigand didn't handle the slop at Laurel and got burned through a quick mile pace when last seen in November. Baffert, as usual, has this one flying in the mornings. Needs to find his form from 18 months ago.
#5 and #6 are logical...#3 is a horse for course...ALL race...
Race 10:
Absolute crapshoot to end the card. Most of the favoured runners won't draw in, but all of them (main body and AEs) all have a lot of negatives going for them. Can see a bomb here.
#2 Kate Is a Ten is a course and distance winner (NY-bred MSW event), and I don't think her last race was that bad. Davis can get his first winner at the meet here at a huge price.
#1 Great Cross returns to Contessa's barn where she by far was in the best form of her career. Inside post isn't a great spot, but if he can get her back to where she was in the winter then she has a chance.
#13 Morning Star is by far the one to beat if she draws in. Not sure if she'll get three SCRs...
#6 is dangerous if he can run like he did 13/14 months ago...#8 didn't handle GP but doesn't provide a lot of confidence otherwise...#9 drops down but is 1 for 19...#10 may be better than his form shows but the distance is a question...#11 is in for a tag off a trainer switch who doesn't do well in these situations...#12 has one fantastic race and one horrible race to his name...#14 has a positive trainer switch but is unknown on the surface...
This race has ALL written all over it even more so than the previous event.
$0.60 Pick Four
Race 7: 1
Race 8: 3, 5
Race 9: ALL (8)
Race 10: ALL (10)
$96.00
I understand that it does not take much skill at all to go ALL not once, but twice. However, I didn't play on Thursday and the P4 will practically be my only wager on Friday. With that in mind, and the potential value at stake, I think it's worthwhile to structure my ticket in such a way. The last two are extremely wide open events, and it may be best to just not worry about them (assuming my first legs are winners). If I were to play a smaller ticket, it would look something like this: 1/3, 5/1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7/1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10 ($43.20) and add in 11, 12, 13, 14 if any of them draw in.
Good luck!
Race 7:
#1 Trecastle is my single. Ran great on debut from a tough spot without lasix. Couldn't stay the full 12f in his second start. Was short last time. Ready to roll today.
#6 and #8 have had their chances and I'm on the fence about #10. Maybe #9 at a big price has a chance. Nothing else of interest.
Race 8:
#3 Tabreed really should win this. Lost a lot of ground at Arlington last out and her two Stateside victories have been at 9f. Should get a favourable pace scenario. If she doesn't fire then Clement's other runner, #5 Maximova, should pick up the pieces. Back to form last time, and her that form gives her a strong chance.
#6 Red Hot Tweet will be a bit of a price, and soft turf aside has never really run a bad race on this surface. Though I'm not sure if her best is good enough to win here.
Race 9:
I think that any of the eight can win this.
#1 Saratoga Snacks is 6 for 8 on a fast track, with his only non top two placing coming after a poor start in the G1 Cigar Mile. Mott should have him ready off the layoff.
#7 Amberjack got in a nice prep race last time and will be closer to his best here for Hushion who excels in this spot. Not happy to see Alvarado on the inside runner, however.
#2 Brigand didn't handle the slop at Laurel and got burned through a quick mile pace when last seen in November. Baffert, as usual, has this one flying in the mornings. Needs to find his form from 18 months ago.
#5 and #6 are logical...#3 is a horse for course...ALL race...
Race 10:
Absolute crapshoot to end the card. Most of the favoured runners won't draw in, but all of them (main body and AEs) all have a lot of negatives going for them. Can see a bomb here.
#2 Kate Is a Ten is a course and distance winner (NY-bred MSW event), and I don't think her last race was that bad. Davis can get his first winner at the meet here at a huge price.
#1 Great Cross returns to Contessa's barn where she by far was in the best form of her career. Inside post isn't a great spot, but if he can get her back to where she was in the winter then she has a chance.
#13 Morning Star is by far the one to beat if she draws in. Not sure if she'll get three SCRs...
#6 is dangerous if he can run like he did 13/14 months ago...#8 didn't handle GP but doesn't provide a lot of confidence otherwise...#9 drops down but is 1 for 19...#10 may be better than his form shows but the distance is a question...#11 is in for a tag off a trainer switch who doesn't do well in these situations...#12 has one fantastic race and one horrible race to his name...#14 has a positive trainer switch but is unknown on the surface...
This race has ALL written all over it even more so than the previous event.
$0.60 Pick Four
Race 7: 1
Race 8: 3, 5
Race 9: ALL (8)
Race 10: ALL (10)
$96.00
I understand that it does not take much skill at all to go ALL not once, but twice. However, I didn't play on Thursday and the P4 will practically be my only wager on Friday. With that in mind, and the potential value at stake, I think it's worthwhile to structure my ticket in such a way. The last two are extremely wide open events, and it may be best to just not worry about them (assuming my first legs are winners). If I were to play a smaller ticket, it would look something like this: 1/3, 5/1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7/1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10 ($43.20) and add in 11, 12, 13, 14 if any of them draw in.
Good luck!