Kasept
10-18-2013, 07:35 AM
Good enough afternoon at Belmont Thursday, but failed to convert my positive view of 7th race upsetter Claiming Victory ($22.20) into P6 play leaving $10k on the table. As discussed Wednesday on ATR, Jim Ryerson's Claiming Victory had intriguing potential at a price trying turf for the first time and as controlling speed. But with concern over the reliability of Flores Island in the 4th, choice of Ascended Fever as sequence's single felt right after the SCR's of Blossom's Trail and Hot Rendezvous. Claiming Victory's wire win helped boost the P4 hit to $368 and the $10,327 P6 payoff was very generous for the otherwise mundane skein. Hope everyone did well. Really fun Keeneland races today and a $43k+ C/O at Santa Anita later this afternoon..
KEENELAND
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)
Oxley homebred Awesome Sky a full to Sky Dreamer who was a 2yo debut winner at WO. Sharp gate drill at CD last week for bow; LoPresti sends Match Up out first time for the Kleins and dam Change Up was a 2yo flasher exchanging stakes decisions in '06 with Nafzger's Lady Joanne in the Pocahontas and Golden Rod..
Best Value: #1 Awesome Sky 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Baby Titan 5-2 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Match Up 10-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Bro Rodrigeaux 3-1 3rd
6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Rumblefortheroses 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Camp Meeting 10-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Valdina's Will 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Long Station 7-2 4th
7th: ALW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Insanely competitive group with rife with graded stakes performers. Looks like there's plenty of pace too..
Best Value: #8 Pure Tactics 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Turallure 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Trend 5-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Regally Ready 6-1 WON ($25.20)
8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Little pace involved and you may do well for multi-race purposes to hope Before You Know It or Acenda swipe this from up front. If they don't, it could be any of many..
Best Value: #2 Before You Know It 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Acenda 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Madam Nancy 12-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Two to Tango 6-1 9th
9th: 23rd Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)
Yet another superb sophomore filly turf heat. Summer of Fun has faced best company and is horse to beat, but there's unlimited alternatives within a length or two of her..
Most Likely: #8 Overheard 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #3 Summer of Fun 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Stormin Elle 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Nellie Cashman 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Sustained 8-1 6th
10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Glamour Galore 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Rewardbyblitzing 20-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Guilded Reward 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Issheit 6-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Blue Cliff 6-1 5th
<$75 P5 Play:
6: 1-6-7
7: 1-4-5-8
8: 2-7
9: 3-8
10: 3-4-7
3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 1-4-5-8
8: 2-7
9: 3-4-8
10: 3-4-7-12
4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
3rd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Buckingham Bull 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Marina Del Heat 10-1 WON ($20.40)
Next Best: #7 Intoxicating Move 8-1 3rd
4th: CLM, 3yo, 7f, (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 One Firm Cat 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Money Cannon 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #5 I Don't Care Who 4-1 5th
5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Nicegirlsfinishlast 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Passionate Diva 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #6 Sealington 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Shrilanka 3-1 3rd
6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Amulay 2-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #8 Totally Blonde 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dolphin Shorts 8-5 Non-starter
Exotics Use: #6 Summers Dignity 8-1 8th
7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD)
Most Likely: #2 Bares Tripper LATE SCR
Best Value: #8 Lady Katfish 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Tebowing 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Pebble Beach Baby 12-1 4th
8th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Magic Number 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Magic Maya 4-1 WON ($17.40)
Best Value: #3 Rsweet Serendipity 12-1 -
Exotics Use: #5 Chumash 3-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Renegade Ride 5-2 3rd
<$200 P6 Play:
3: 4
4: 2-5
5: 1-5-6-8
6: 4
7: 2/SCR-8
8: 3-6-7
1x2x4x1x2x3 = 48 x $2 = $96
<$75 P4 Play:
5: 1-5-6-8
6: 1-4-6-8
7: 2/SCR-8
8: 3-6-7
4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good luck!
Steve
KEENELAND
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)
Oxley homebred Awesome Sky a full to Sky Dreamer who was a 2yo debut winner at WO. Sharp gate drill at CD last week for bow; LoPresti sends Match Up out first time for the Kleins and dam Change Up was a 2yo flasher exchanging stakes decisions in '06 with Nafzger's Lady Joanne in the Pocahontas and Golden Rod..
Best Value: #1 Awesome Sky 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Baby Titan 5-2 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Match Up 10-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Bro Rodrigeaux 3-1 3rd
6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Rumblefortheroses 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Camp Meeting 10-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Valdina's Will 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Long Station 7-2 4th
7th: ALW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Insanely competitive group with rife with graded stakes performers. Looks like there's plenty of pace too..
Best Value: #8 Pure Tactics 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Turallure 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Trend 5-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Regally Ready 6-1 WON ($25.20)
8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Little pace involved and you may do well for multi-race purposes to hope Before You Know It or Acenda swipe this from up front. If they don't, it could be any of many..
Best Value: #2 Before You Know It 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Acenda 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Madam Nancy 12-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Two to Tango 6-1 9th
9th: 23rd Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)
Yet another superb sophomore filly turf heat. Summer of Fun has faced best company and is horse to beat, but there's unlimited alternatives within a length or two of her..
Most Likely: #8 Overheard 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #3 Summer of Fun 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Stormin Elle 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Nellie Cashman 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Sustained 8-1 6th
10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Glamour Galore 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Rewardbyblitzing 20-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Guilded Reward 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Issheit 6-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Blue Cliff 6-1 5th
<$75 P5 Play:
6: 1-6-7
7: 1-4-5-8
8: 2-7
9: 3-8
10: 3-4-7
3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 1-4-5-8
8: 2-7
9: 3-4-8
10: 3-4-7-12
4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
3rd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Buckingham Bull 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Marina Del Heat 10-1 WON ($20.40)
Next Best: #7 Intoxicating Move 8-1 3rd
4th: CLM, 3yo, 7f, (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 One Firm Cat 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Money Cannon 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #5 I Don't Care Who 4-1 5th
5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Nicegirlsfinishlast 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Passionate Diva 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #6 Sealington 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Shrilanka 3-1 3rd
6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Amulay 2-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #8 Totally Blonde 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dolphin Shorts 8-5 Non-starter
Exotics Use: #6 Summers Dignity 8-1 8th
7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD)
Most Likely: #2 Bares Tripper LATE SCR
Best Value: #8 Lady Katfish 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Tebowing 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Pebble Beach Baby 12-1 4th
8th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Magic Number 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Magic Maya 4-1 WON ($17.40)
Best Value: #3 Rsweet Serendipity 12-1 -
Exotics Use: #5 Chumash 3-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Renegade Ride 5-2 3rd
<$200 P6 Play:
3: 4
4: 2-5
5: 1-5-6-8
6: 4
7: 2/SCR-8
8: 3-6-7
1x2x4x1x2x3 = 48 x $2 = $96
<$75 P4 Play:
5: 1-5-6-8
6: 1-4-6-8
7: 2/SCR-8
8: 3-6-7
4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good luck!
Steve