Kasept
10-05-2013, 07:37 AM
With nearly $2MM in the Belmont Triple C/O pool, the payoff was going to be solid Friday under almost any scenario. Only one favorite would win though, $3.50 Sapphire Blue in the opening leg, and a $221k score went to 6 successful tickets. $24.60 Mighty Reward (6th choice) ended the tricky sequence to boost the payday after winners paid $11.60 (4th choice Don Tito), $13.80 (5th choice Tres Hermanas), $9.10 (2nd choice Blue Ballerina) and $13.80 (4th choice Justoneatheguys). At Keeneland, $30 O Prado Ole and Phoenix repeater Sum of the Parts ($27.20) helped drive a $31,308 P5 (.50) and $2,748 P4. Great action everywhere today...
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
8th: 64th Jamaica (G1), 3yo, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Have anticipated big win from Jack Milton since KEE stake hit in spring. Other than Hollywood Derby, this is the spot. Note that SCR of Five Iron leaves this without a great deal of pace..
Most Likely: #5 Jack Milton 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Up With the Birds 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #2 War Dancer 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Stormy Len 8-1 6th
9th: 66th Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)
Understand naysayers wanting to see Sweet Reason translating upstate form on dry traffic, but am bewildered by those questioning 'how far she wants to go'. Three drills since Spinaway win including stiff 7f move 9/25 followed by half mile bullet sharpener 10/1 (:47.4). Easy to root for team involved here..
Most Likely: #1 Sweet Reason 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Artemis Agrotera 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #4 Stopchargingmaria 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Recepta 5-1 7th
10th: 142nd Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)
Outstanding cast for this long-running juvenile kingmaker with all the elements in place for a corker. Hopeful hero Strong Mandate draws well for stalking trip while speedy debuter Havana looks to be cruising up front. Honor Code has drilled smartly for assignment and is another being watched for dry, fast track aptitude. Debt Ceiling was a bitter disappointment for Jerry Robb and seems to have regrouped..
Most Likely: #7 Strong Mandate 5-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Honor Code 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Debt Ceiling 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Havana 7-2 WON ($7.20)
11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT
Typical state bred turf route ALW. Reach for prices..
Best Value: #6 Carson Bandit 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 With Exultation 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Barnards Galaxy 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Make a Decision 8-1 WON ($10.20)
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 1-2-3-5-7-11
9: 1-2
10: 5-7
11: 1-4-5-6-7-10
6x2x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
KEENELAND
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: 17th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)
Wide open set with nearly all possible. When in doubt, look to those that have shown affinity for this sand-based turf course, i.e., Great Mills, Havelock, Ancil..
Most Likely: #7 Ancil 5-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Havelock 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #3 Great Mills 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Pirates Vow 15-1 9th
6th: 33rd T.C.A. (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P4, P3, DD)
Not shy about being Groupie Doll/Bradley Family fan. Rooting for and she's obviously very likely, but Purely Hot may be more than Presque Isle phenom and Judy the Beauty & Gypsy Robin are a combined 5/5 this strip..
Most Likely: #6 Groupie Doll 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Purely Hot 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Judy the Beauty 5-1 WON ($8.40)
7th: 16th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Irish invader Say is by megasire Galileo out of Pat Kelly-trained Riskaverse who won the QEII on this course in '02. Bravo suits rallying style of Group III winner that was close to Bev D winner Dank earlier this year. 10-1? Sign me up..
Best Value: #1 Say 10-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Hungry Island 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Better Lucky 4-1 WON ($11.60)
Super Add: #5 Winding Way 30-1 7th
8th: 100 Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
As discussed with Marty McGee, thoroughly impossible group to decipher..
Most Likely: #7 General Jack 5-1 10th
Best Value: #10 Arctic Slope 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Conquest Titan 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Kendall's Boy 4-1 11th
Super Add: #6 Solitary Ranger 6-1 9th
9th: 28th Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (DD)
Wise Dan should have to work for this today with a number of rock solid players involved. He does get a pace to attack..
Most Likely: #10 Wise Dan 2-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Hogy 30-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Silver Max 6-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Winning Prize 6-1 4th
<$50 P4 Play:
6: 2-6
7: 1-2-3
8: 1-2-6-7-9-10-13-14
9: 10 (ALL)
2x3x8x1 = $48
10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #5 Brilliant Autumn 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #9 Ballistic Sue 8-5 9th
Best Value #3 Do Dat Blues 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Guava Girl 5-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Carolyn M. 8-1 6th
<$75 P5 Play:
6: 6
7: 1-2-3
8: 1-2-6-7-9-10-13-14
9: 10 (ALL)
10: 1-3-5-7-9-11
1x3x8x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 1-2-3
8: 2-6-7-9-10
9: 4-9-10 (ALL)
10: 5-9
3x5x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
INDIANA DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 1-3-7
9: 2-4/SCR-6-7-8
10: 2
11: 2-3-4-8-10-13
3x5x1x6 = 90 x .50 = $45
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Wildly competitive start to P6. Some serious candidates off layoff here..
Most Likely: #3 Chief Lion 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Intoclassymischief 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Magic Dandy 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Drover Crazy 6-1 WON ($11.80)
6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Ivanho 9-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Little Bit O'Fun 12-1 WON ($33.60)
Next Best: #8 Depreciable 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Mr. Bossy Pants 9-2 3rd
7th: 2nd L.A. Woman, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Baffert moving cautiously with Midnight Lute sister Socialbug but runs into some real horses in stakes debut including stablemate Executiveprivilege..
Most Likely: #3 Socialbug 3-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Teddy's Promise 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Executiveprivilege 5-2 4th
8th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Key Vista 6-5 9th
Next Best: #2 Cotton's Point 6-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Only Josie Knows 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Midnight Lady 8-1 8th
9th: 2nd SA Sprint Ch. (G1), 3+, 6f (DD)
Interesting group with no one easy to eliminate..
Most Likely: #6 Roman Threat 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Gonna Fly Now 10-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Goldencents 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Trinniberg 7-2 7th
10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #12 Savings Account 4-1 -
Next Best: #8 Sierra Electrica 5-1 -
Best Value: #3 Blameitonthecat 6-1 -
Exotics Use: #7 Cal Gal 10-1 WON ($32.00)
<$200 P6 Play:
5: 2-3-5-6-7-9
6: 2-9
7: 3-6
8: 7
9: 1-5-6-8
10: 12
6x2x2x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 3-5-6
8: 7
9: 1-5-6-7-8
10: 3-8-12
3x1x5x3 = $45
Good luck!
Steve
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
8th: 64th Jamaica (G1), 3yo, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Have anticipated big win from Jack Milton since KEE stake hit in spring. Other than Hollywood Derby, this is the spot. Note that SCR of Five Iron leaves this without a great deal of pace..
Most Likely: #5 Jack Milton 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Up With the Birds 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #2 War Dancer 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Stormy Len 8-1 6th
9th: 66th Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)
Understand naysayers wanting to see Sweet Reason translating upstate form on dry traffic, but am bewildered by those questioning 'how far she wants to go'. Three drills since Spinaway win including stiff 7f move 9/25 followed by half mile bullet sharpener 10/1 (:47.4). Easy to root for team involved here..
Most Likely: #1 Sweet Reason 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Artemis Agrotera 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #4 Stopchargingmaria 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Recepta 5-1 7th
10th: 142nd Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)
Outstanding cast for this long-running juvenile kingmaker with all the elements in place for a corker. Hopeful hero Strong Mandate draws well for stalking trip while speedy debuter Havana looks to be cruising up front. Honor Code has drilled smartly for assignment and is another being watched for dry, fast track aptitude. Debt Ceiling was a bitter disappointment for Jerry Robb and seems to have regrouped..
Most Likely: #7 Strong Mandate 5-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Honor Code 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Debt Ceiling 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Havana 7-2 WON ($7.20)
11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT
Typical state bred turf route ALW. Reach for prices..
Best Value: #6 Carson Bandit 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 With Exultation 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Barnards Galaxy 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Make a Decision 8-1 WON ($10.20)
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 1-2-3-5-7-11
9: 1-2
10: 5-7
11: 1-4-5-6-7-10
6x2x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
KEENELAND
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: 17th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)
Wide open set with nearly all possible. When in doubt, look to those that have shown affinity for this sand-based turf course, i.e., Great Mills, Havelock, Ancil..
Most Likely: #7 Ancil 5-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Havelock 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #3 Great Mills 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Pirates Vow 15-1 9th
6th: 33rd T.C.A. (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P4, P3, DD)
Not shy about being Groupie Doll/Bradley Family fan. Rooting for and she's obviously very likely, but Purely Hot may be more than Presque Isle phenom and Judy the Beauty & Gypsy Robin are a combined 5/5 this strip..
Most Likely: #6 Groupie Doll 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Purely Hot 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Judy the Beauty 5-1 WON ($8.40)
7th: 16th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Irish invader Say is by megasire Galileo out of Pat Kelly-trained Riskaverse who won the QEII on this course in '02. Bravo suits rallying style of Group III winner that was close to Bev D winner Dank earlier this year. 10-1? Sign me up..
Best Value: #1 Say 10-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Hungry Island 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Better Lucky 4-1 WON ($11.60)
Super Add: #5 Winding Way 30-1 7th
8th: 100 Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
As discussed with Marty McGee, thoroughly impossible group to decipher..
Most Likely: #7 General Jack 5-1 10th
Best Value: #10 Arctic Slope 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Conquest Titan 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Kendall's Boy 4-1 11th
Super Add: #6 Solitary Ranger 6-1 9th
9th: 28th Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (DD)
Wise Dan should have to work for this today with a number of rock solid players involved. He does get a pace to attack..
Most Likely: #10 Wise Dan 2-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Hogy 30-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Silver Max 6-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Winning Prize 6-1 4th
<$50 P4 Play:
6: 2-6
7: 1-2-3
8: 1-2-6-7-9-10-13-14
9: 10 (ALL)
2x3x8x1 = $48
10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #5 Brilliant Autumn 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #9 Ballistic Sue 8-5 9th
Best Value #3 Do Dat Blues 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Guava Girl 5-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Carolyn M. 8-1 6th
<$75 P5 Play:
6: 6
7: 1-2-3
8: 1-2-6-7-9-10-13-14
9: 10 (ALL)
10: 1-3-5-7-9-11
1x3x8x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 1-2-3
8: 2-6-7-9-10
9: 4-9-10 (ALL)
10: 5-9
3x5x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
INDIANA DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 1-3-7
9: 2-4/SCR-6-7-8
10: 2
11: 2-3-4-8-10-13
3x5x1x6 = 90 x .50 = $45
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Wildly competitive start to P6. Some serious candidates off layoff here..
Most Likely: #3 Chief Lion 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Intoclassymischief 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Magic Dandy 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Drover Crazy 6-1 WON ($11.80)
6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Ivanho 9-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Little Bit O'Fun 12-1 WON ($33.60)
Next Best: #8 Depreciable 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Mr. Bossy Pants 9-2 3rd
7th: 2nd L.A. Woman, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Baffert moving cautiously with Midnight Lute sister Socialbug but runs into some real horses in stakes debut including stablemate Executiveprivilege..
Most Likely: #3 Socialbug 3-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Teddy's Promise 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Executiveprivilege 5-2 4th
8th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Key Vista 6-5 9th
Next Best: #2 Cotton's Point 6-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Only Josie Knows 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Midnight Lady 8-1 8th
9th: 2nd SA Sprint Ch. (G1), 3+, 6f (DD)
Interesting group with no one easy to eliminate..
Most Likely: #6 Roman Threat 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Gonna Fly Now 10-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Goldencents 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Trinniberg 7-2 7th
10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #12 Savings Account 4-1 -
Next Best: #8 Sierra Electrica 5-1 -
Best Value: #3 Blameitonthecat 6-1 -
Exotics Use: #7 Cal Gal 10-1 WON ($32.00)
<$200 P6 Play:
5: 2-3-5-6-7-9
6: 2-9
7: 3-6
8: 7
9: 1-5-6-8
10: 12
6x2x2x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 3-5-6
8: 7
9: 1-5-6-7-8
10: 3-8-12
3x1x5x3 = $45
Good luck!
Steve