Kasept
09-28-2013, 06:00 AM
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P5, P3, DD)
Thoroughly wild opener with easily half the field eligible for honors. Include plenty of prices in your P5 play..
Best Value: #11 Fourseventeen 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Iron Power 5-1 WON ($15.60)
Exotics Use: #6 River Tune 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Mr Rosenthal 8-1 2n d
2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
2nd timer Misconnect a full brother of recently retired Winslow Homer; Pachelbel the first foal out of the 5x G1 winning Music Note; Tourist a half to the solid Michael With Us; Justin Nguyen a son of the MSW sprint mare Coli Bear..
Most Likely: #8 Misconnect 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #3 Endowment Manager 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Justin Nguyen 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Pachelbel 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Tourist 12-1 3rd
3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Doubt 12-1 holds on Survival who is a half to Point of Entry/Pine Island; Genuine Flare a half to Latent Heat; This Guy Is Blue dam Kim's Blue is a half to Lotta Kim, dam of Rachel Alexandra; Behedeman a full brother of Secret Circle; Mack Miller a half to Rothko; Sir J.J. out of 6x LA-bred SW Destiny Calls (With Approval) who won 3x on the lawn..
Best Value: #3 Survival 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Storming Inti 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Veya 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Sir J.J. 8-1 10th
4th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Crafty Dreamer, flashed real potential as a 3yo before going to the shelf a year. Iselin homebred returned meekly at Spa but has drilled three times since, an excellent sign. May be worth standing with in murky field that will require wide coverage in you don't believe in any particular player..
Most Likely: #3 Crafty Dreamer 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Reggie D 7-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Ambassador Bridge 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Meet the Mets 8-1 10th
5th: 75th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Royal Delta 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Princess of Sylmar 2-1 WON ($)
Exotics Use: #5 Centring 8-1 3rd
<$75 P5 Play:
1: 2-3-4-6-8-10-11-13
2: 3-8
3: 2-3-5-7-8-10
4: 3
5: 4
8x2x6x1x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 3-8
3: 2-3-5-7-8-10
4: 1-3-5-6
5: 2-4
2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
6th: 33rd Kelso (G2), 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)
ATR regs Serling, Tammaro and Beer all sided with 7-2 Souper Speedy over the 2 ML choices (7-5 Graydar; 5-2 LaPenta entry), but also acknowledged that if track continues to play to inside speed, Graydar may be impossible to reel in. Think you need to cover all 3 entities (#'s 1-2-5) in multis..
Most Likely: #2 Graydar 7-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #1e LaPenta entry 5-2 5th/7th
Exotics Use: #5 Souper Speedy 7-2 4th
7th: 74th Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Interesting edition of this in division that has been searching for a leader all year. Note The Lumber Guy -- defending winner of the event -- is in here at 8-1. Has blistered morning watches since first off layoff try upstate and will sit ideal trip behind the 3 speeds (Bahamian Squall, Strapping Groom, Private Zone). Hushion may have Schwartz NY homebred approaching best 3yo form and today would be the day to latch on..
Best Value: #5 The Lumber Guy 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Justin Phillip 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Private Zone 4-1 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #1 Forty Tales 7-2 4th
8th: 36th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1e Goldberg/Santulli entry 8-5 WON ($3.20)/2nd
Best Value: #3 Somali Lemonade 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Qushchi 3-1 4th (3rd for wagering)
Exotics Use: #2 Mystical Star 4-1 3rd (2nd for wagering)
9th: 37th Joe Hirsch (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)
Adding 'now' horse Slumber to Sword Dancer result..
Most Likely: #2e Ramsey entry 8-5 2nd/3rd/9th
Best Value: #4 Slumber 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Twilight Eclipse 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Nutello 8-1 8th
10th: 95th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)
Can Cross Traffic take his speed 10f? Note that Pletcher notched up his typical 4f drilling to 5/8ths readying the Whitney winner for this spot and possible BC Classic try. Flat Out meanwhile can perch himself in striking distance and attack the front runner at Alvarado's discretion. Orb, Palace Malice, Last Gunfighter and Alpha all capable for varying degrees of board success, but if there's a price horse to be employed to boost exotics, it's the Brazilian import Vitoria Olimpica (20-1) who is 3rd/layoff, impressed upstate and bred for trip..
Most Likely: #6 Flat Out 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Cross Traffic 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Vitoria Olimpica 20-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Last Gunfighter 10-1 5th
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 2-5-8
8: 1-3
9: 2-4 (1-3-5)
10: 6-8 (3-4-7)
Narrow: 3x2x2x2 = $24
Wide: 3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
11th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T
Fun wagering finale..
Most Likely: #5 Coriander 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #10 Given Fire 20-1 7th
Next Best: #13 Live Life Fast 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Rosalie's Pleasure 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Amazing Abby 15-1 11th
SANTA ANITA
PRE-SCRATCHES
5th: 2nd Chandelier (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 She's a Tiger 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Fascinating 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Belle of the Fleet 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Antiquity 5-1 7th
6th: 2nd Rodea Drive (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Marketing Mix 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Tiz Flirtacious 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #1 Topic 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Starstruck 10-1 4th
7th: 2nd FrontRunner (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #1 Ontology 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Can the Man 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Dance With Fate 7-2 2nd
Super Use: #6 Tamarando 4-1 4th
8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Macaabra 7-2 7th
Best Value: #1 One Pure Creation 12-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Burns Turn 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Boller Bomb 10-1 2nd
9th: 2nd Zenyatta (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #4 Include Me Out 9-2 7th
Next Best: #3 Beholder 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Authenticity 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Joyful Victory 2-1 3rd
10th: 2nd Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)
Most Likely: #7 Paynter 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Golden Ticket 5-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Mucho Macho Man 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Take Control 5-1 10th
11th: 2nd Unzip Me, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Judy in Disguise 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Pontchatrain 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #11 Unusual Way 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Heir Kitty 5-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #2 Lilbourne Eliza 12-1 11th
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 1-2-12
9: 3-4-6-7
10: 2-6-7-10
11: 7-8
3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good luck!
Steve
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P5, P3, DD)
Thoroughly wild opener with easily half the field eligible for honors. Include plenty of prices in your P5 play..
Best Value: #11 Fourseventeen 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Iron Power 5-1 WON ($15.60)
Exotics Use: #6 River Tune 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Mr Rosenthal 8-1 2n d
2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
2nd timer Misconnect a full brother of recently retired Winslow Homer; Pachelbel the first foal out of the 5x G1 winning Music Note; Tourist a half to the solid Michael With Us; Justin Nguyen a son of the MSW sprint mare Coli Bear..
Most Likely: #8 Misconnect 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #3 Endowment Manager 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Justin Nguyen 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Pachelbel 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Tourist 12-1 3rd
3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Doubt 12-1 holds on Survival who is a half to Point of Entry/Pine Island; Genuine Flare a half to Latent Heat; This Guy Is Blue dam Kim's Blue is a half to Lotta Kim, dam of Rachel Alexandra; Behedeman a full brother of Secret Circle; Mack Miller a half to Rothko; Sir J.J. out of 6x LA-bred SW Destiny Calls (With Approval) who won 3x on the lawn..
Best Value: #3 Survival 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Storming Inti 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Veya 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Sir J.J. 8-1 10th
4th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Crafty Dreamer, flashed real potential as a 3yo before going to the shelf a year. Iselin homebred returned meekly at Spa but has drilled three times since, an excellent sign. May be worth standing with in murky field that will require wide coverage in you don't believe in any particular player..
Most Likely: #3 Crafty Dreamer 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Reggie D 7-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Ambassador Bridge 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Meet the Mets 8-1 10th
5th: 75th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Royal Delta 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Princess of Sylmar 2-1 WON ($)
Exotics Use: #5 Centring 8-1 3rd
<$75 P5 Play:
1: 2-3-4-6-8-10-11-13
2: 3-8
3: 2-3-5-7-8-10
4: 3
5: 4
8x2x6x1x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 3-8
3: 2-3-5-7-8-10
4: 1-3-5-6
5: 2-4
2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
6th: 33rd Kelso (G2), 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)
ATR regs Serling, Tammaro and Beer all sided with 7-2 Souper Speedy over the 2 ML choices (7-5 Graydar; 5-2 LaPenta entry), but also acknowledged that if track continues to play to inside speed, Graydar may be impossible to reel in. Think you need to cover all 3 entities (#'s 1-2-5) in multis..
Most Likely: #2 Graydar 7-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #1e LaPenta entry 5-2 5th/7th
Exotics Use: #5 Souper Speedy 7-2 4th
7th: 74th Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Interesting edition of this in division that has been searching for a leader all year. Note The Lumber Guy -- defending winner of the event -- is in here at 8-1. Has blistered morning watches since first off layoff try upstate and will sit ideal trip behind the 3 speeds (Bahamian Squall, Strapping Groom, Private Zone). Hushion may have Schwartz NY homebred approaching best 3yo form and today would be the day to latch on..
Best Value: #5 The Lumber Guy 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Justin Phillip 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Private Zone 4-1 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #1 Forty Tales 7-2 4th
8th: 36th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1e Goldberg/Santulli entry 8-5 WON ($3.20)/2nd
Best Value: #3 Somali Lemonade 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Qushchi 3-1 4th (3rd for wagering)
Exotics Use: #2 Mystical Star 4-1 3rd (2nd for wagering)
9th: 37th Joe Hirsch (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)
Adding 'now' horse Slumber to Sword Dancer result..
Most Likely: #2e Ramsey entry 8-5 2nd/3rd/9th
Best Value: #4 Slumber 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Twilight Eclipse 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Nutello 8-1 8th
10th: 95th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)
Can Cross Traffic take his speed 10f? Note that Pletcher notched up his typical 4f drilling to 5/8ths readying the Whitney winner for this spot and possible BC Classic try. Flat Out meanwhile can perch himself in striking distance and attack the front runner at Alvarado's discretion. Orb, Palace Malice, Last Gunfighter and Alpha all capable for varying degrees of board success, but if there's a price horse to be employed to boost exotics, it's the Brazilian import Vitoria Olimpica (20-1) who is 3rd/layoff, impressed upstate and bred for trip..
Most Likely: #6 Flat Out 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Cross Traffic 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Vitoria Olimpica 20-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Last Gunfighter 10-1 5th
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 2-5-8
8: 1-3
9: 2-4 (1-3-5)
10: 6-8 (3-4-7)
Narrow: 3x2x2x2 = $24
Wide: 3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
11th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T
Fun wagering finale..
Most Likely: #5 Coriander 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #10 Given Fire 20-1 7th
Next Best: #13 Live Life Fast 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Rosalie's Pleasure 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Amazing Abby 15-1 11th
SANTA ANITA
PRE-SCRATCHES
5th: 2nd Chandelier (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 She's a Tiger 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Fascinating 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Belle of the Fleet 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Antiquity 5-1 7th
6th: 2nd Rodea Drive (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Marketing Mix 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Tiz Flirtacious 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #1 Topic 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Starstruck 10-1 4th
7th: 2nd FrontRunner (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #1 Ontology 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Can the Man 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Dance With Fate 7-2 2nd
Super Use: #6 Tamarando 4-1 4th
8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Macaabra 7-2 7th
Best Value: #1 One Pure Creation 12-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Burns Turn 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Boller Bomb 10-1 2nd
9th: 2nd Zenyatta (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #4 Include Me Out 9-2 7th
Next Best: #3 Beholder 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Authenticity 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Joyful Victory 2-1 3rd
10th: 2nd Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)
Most Likely: #7 Paynter 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Golden Ticket 5-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Mucho Macho Man 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Take Control 5-1 10th
11th: 2nd Unzip Me, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Judy in Disguise 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Pontchatrain 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #11 Unusual Way 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Heir Kitty 5-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #2 Lilbourne Eliza 12-1 11th
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 1-2-12
9: 3-4-6-7
10: 2-6-7-10
11: 7-8
3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good luck!
Steve