Kasept
09-19-2013, 06:44 AM
Multiple mid-priced winners and a 25-1 nightcap upsetter made the double C/O sequence at Belmont impossible to negotiate Wednesday and a three day $540k is available Thursday as a result. Let's go!
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: William Entenmann Mem., 4+, 18f-National Fences (P5, P3, DD)
Had hoped to get away with P5 single of Martini Brother (as part of Pape/Sheppard entry), but Clorevia Farm entry (Dr. Skip/Extraextraordinary) and improving mare Cat Feathers may need coverage..
Most Likely: #1e Sheppard entry 7-5 2nd/6th
Best Value: #4 Cat Feathers 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2e Clorevia Farm entry 3-1 5th/DNF-Fell
Exotics Use: #6 Cognashene 15-1 DNF-Fell
2nd: Lonesome Glory H. (G1), 4+, 20f-National Fences (P3, DD)
As discussed with Bill Gallo Wednesday on ATR, chases downstate are a test of stamina as opposed to upstate where the premium is on speed and agility. 2012 Championship challenger Demonstrative and 'now horse' Italian Wedding (POE) are the prime players here and co-horses to beat. Gustavian won last year's Entenmann here and Hunt Ball (the 'other' Sheppard) gets first Lasix and should prefer the grander layout of Belmont's hop course..
Best Value: #7 Hunt Ball 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Demonstrative 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Italian Wedding 2-1 3rd/7th
Super Add: #4 Gustavian 6-1 WON ($9.70)
3rd: Parlo, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Outside draw gives Street Secret big edge..
Most Likely: #5 Street Secret 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Moon Philly 6-1 4th
4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Garmentos Girl takes big drop and gets advantageous pace set. Slippery group..
Most Likely: #6 Garmentos Girl 5-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Sweet Sway 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Trail Walker 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Talent N Passion 3-1 WON ($8.70)
5th: Spite the Devil-NY, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)
$540k P6 C/O starts here..
Most Likely: #1 Night Maneuver 4-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #3 Readtheprospectus 2-1 (A) WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Spa City Fever 8-1 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #2 Zetterholm LATE SCR
$36 P5 Play:
1: 1-2
2: 1-2-4-7
3: 5
4: 2-6-8
5: 1-3
2x4x1x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
Typically deep and contentious state bred turf ALW. Jitney's upstate turf return was terrific and Saez added to equation now too. After that, use as many as you can afford..
Most Likely: #7 Jitney 4-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #1 Double the Energy 8-1 (B) WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #2 Vicki's Dancer 6-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics/"C's": #8 Ornelia 6-1 9th; #4 Neck of the Moon 3-1 2nd; #9 Palace Dreams 7-2 (C) 8th
7th MCLM/$16k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Always suspect bottom MCLM's..
Most Likely: #1 Easy Reach 6-1 (A) 8th
Best Value: #10 Inmyfathersimage 10-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #7 Fiddlers Chico 6-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Summer Shiner 3-1 (B) WON ($10.00)
8th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Mysterious group of NYB babies. Stretchouts, firsters and turf debuters make this guesswork. Burndownthetown a full sis to Gitchee Goomie..
Most Likely: #5 Freud's Sunset 5-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #10 Backstretch Lady 15-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #6 Burndownthetown 6-1 (B) 8th
Exotics/"C's": #4 Selenite 3-1 WON ($8.20); #7 Under Scrutiny 10-1 7th; #3 Kelly's Prize 7-2 (C) 4th
9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (BEL-PEN P4, DD)
BEL-PEN P4 starts here..
Most Likely: #9 Sneaky Kitten 5-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #5 Westside Corral 4-1 (B) 4th
Best Value: #6 Alarmed Ndanderous 6-1 (C) 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Mia Poppy 7-2 (X) 6th
10th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 7f-T
Most Likely: #1 Rufus Ruth 5-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #8 Hot Rendezvous 2-1 (A) WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #11 Mononoke 8-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Ampa's Girl 9-2 (C) 3rd
<$200 P6 Play:
5: 1-3
6: 7
7: 1-10
8: 5-6-10
9: 5-9
10: 1-8-11
2x1x2x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-6-7-10
8: 5-6-10
9: 1-5-6-9
10: 1-8-11
4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
PENN NATIONAL
PRE-SCRATCHES
1st: PA-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)
Most Likely: #5 Flynnie 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Luvmealldayindyusa 9-2 -
Next Best: #8 Missredhead 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Sylvia's Sweetart 4-1 -
2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m
Most Likely: #2 Italian Nany 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Top Exchange 6-1 -
Next Best: #8 Queen Anna 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Hula Party 6-1 5th
<$50 BEL-PEN P4 Play:
BEL 9: 1-5-6-9
BEL 10: 1-4-8-11
PEN 1: 5-6-8
PEN 2: 2-5
4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good luck!
Steve
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: William Entenmann Mem., 4+, 18f-National Fences (P5, P3, DD)
Had hoped to get away with P5 single of Martini Brother (as part of Pape/Sheppard entry), but Clorevia Farm entry (Dr. Skip/Extraextraordinary) and improving mare Cat Feathers may need coverage..
Most Likely: #1e Sheppard entry 7-5 2nd/6th
Best Value: #4 Cat Feathers 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2e Clorevia Farm entry 3-1 5th/DNF-Fell
Exotics Use: #6 Cognashene 15-1 DNF-Fell
2nd: Lonesome Glory H. (G1), 4+, 20f-National Fences (P3, DD)
As discussed with Bill Gallo Wednesday on ATR, chases downstate are a test of stamina as opposed to upstate where the premium is on speed and agility. 2012 Championship challenger Demonstrative and 'now horse' Italian Wedding (POE) are the prime players here and co-horses to beat. Gustavian won last year's Entenmann here and Hunt Ball (the 'other' Sheppard) gets first Lasix and should prefer the grander layout of Belmont's hop course..
Best Value: #7 Hunt Ball 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Demonstrative 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Italian Wedding 2-1 3rd/7th
Super Add: #4 Gustavian 6-1 WON ($9.70)
3rd: Parlo, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Outside draw gives Street Secret big edge..
Most Likely: #5 Street Secret 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Moon Philly 6-1 4th
4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Garmentos Girl takes big drop and gets advantageous pace set. Slippery group..
Most Likely: #6 Garmentos Girl 5-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Sweet Sway 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Trail Walker 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Talent N Passion 3-1 WON ($8.70)
5th: Spite the Devil-NY, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)
$540k P6 C/O starts here..
Most Likely: #1 Night Maneuver 4-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #3 Readtheprospectus 2-1 (A) WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Spa City Fever 8-1 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #2 Zetterholm LATE SCR
$36 P5 Play:
1: 1-2
2: 1-2-4-7
3: 5
4: 2-6-8
5: 1-3
2x4x1x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
Typically deep and contentious state bred turf ALW. Jitney's upstate turf return was terrific and Saez added to equation now too. After that, use as many as you can afford..
Most Likely: #7 Jitney 4-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #1 Double the Energy 8-1 (B) WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #2 Vicki's Dancer 6-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics/"C's": #8 Ornelia 6-1 9th; #4 Neck of the Moon 3-1 2nd; #9 Palace Dreams 7-2 (C) 8th
7th MCLM/$16k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Always suspect bottom MCLM's..
Most Likely: #1 Easy Reach 6-1 (A) 8th
Best Value: #10 Inmyfathersimage 10-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #7 Fiddlers Chico 6-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Summer Shiner 3-1 (B) WON ($10.00)
8th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Mysterious group of NYB babies. Stretchouts, firsters and turf debuters make this guesswork. Burndownthetown a full sis to Gitchee Goomie..
Most Likely: #5 Freud's Sunset 5-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #10 Backstretch Lady 15-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #6 Burndownthetown 6-1 (B) 8th
Exotics/"C's": #4 Selenite 3-1 WON ($8.20); #7 Under Scrutiny 10-1 7th; #3 Kelly's Prize 7-2 (C) 4th
9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (BEL-PEN P4, DD)
BEL-PEN P4 starts here..
Most Likely: #9 Sneaky Kitten 5-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #5 Westside Corral 4-1 (B) 4th
Best Value: #6 Alarmed Ndanderous 6-1 (C) 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Mia Poppy 7-2 (X) 6th
10th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 7f-T
Most Likely: #1 Rufus Ruth 5-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #8 Hot Rendezvous 2-1 (A) WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #11 Mononoke 8-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Ampa's Girl 9-2 (C) 3rd
<$200 P6 Play:
5: 1-3
6: 7
7: 1-10
8: 5-6-10
9: 5-9
10: 1-8-11
2x1x2x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-6-7-10
8: 5-6-10
9: 1-5-6-9
10: 1-8-11
4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
PENN NATIONAL
PRE-SCRATCHES
1st: PA-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)
Most Likely: #5 Flynnie 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Luvmealldayindyusa 9-2 -
Next Best: #8 Missredhead 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Sylvia's Sweetart 4-1 -
2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m
Most Likely: #2 Italian Nany 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Top Exchange 6-1 -
Next Best: #8 Queen Anna 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Hula Party 6-1 5th
<$50 BEL-PEN P4 Play:
BEL 9: 1-5-6-9
BEL 10: 1-4-8-11
PEN 1: 5-6-8
PEN 2: 2-5
4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good luck!
Steve