Kasept
09-18-2013, 07:15 AM
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
Confounding 6 pack with 5 FTS from good outfits and Mott/Live Oak 2nd timer Naughtynaightygirl (Bernardini) that debuted upstate, took some money, and had some things go against her right from the break. Chad Brown sends $475k Rubindy (Bernardini), a half sis to SW Beautician & Bella Castani..
Best Value: #6 Rubindy 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Naughtynaughtygirl 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Sustainable 5-1 2nd
2nd: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Nice bunch and fun wagering affair. Bridgehampton SCR'D may just wire them, but if you can get a little pressure on her, perhaps returning Single Forever (8-1) can pounce off a potentially sweet inside stalking voyage..
Best Value: #3 Single Forever 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Merry Meadow 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Tanglewood Tale 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Super Add: #5 Cape Cod Carol 10-1 3rd
3rd: MCLM/$16k, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
These always have potential to turn into a staggerfest. Taylor Jagger should be fit for assignment after a summer of turf routing. An Esler/Decarlo Double? Maybe..
Best Value: #3 Taylor Jagger 5-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #7 Malibu Queen 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Flamingo Lane 3-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Lady C Note 10-1 3rd
4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Tricky set with a few having quality efforts somewhere in their running lines. Almost no one would be an utter shock..
Most Likely: #5 Brandini 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 La Java 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Isn'tshewonderful 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Sky Lassie 6-1 4th
5th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)
$177k C/O starts here..
2nd Wednesday in a row where we are confronted by a slippery carryover sequence. Those that aren't P6 players will have plenty of fun betting the skein individually. As discussed Tuesday with Andy Serling, the obvious players simply look better than the price alternatives and modest budgets may just have to live or die with them..
Most Likely: #3 Driven by Solar 5-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #1 Don't Say No 3-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Smiling Bob 7-2 (C) 3rd
Super Add: #4 Folk Singer 6-1 (C) WON ($9.20)
<$50 P5 Play:
1: 1-2-3-4-5-6
2: 3-7
3: 3
4: 1-3-4-5
5: 1-3
6x2x1x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
<$50 P4 Play:
2: 3-7
3: 3-4-7
4: 1-3-4-5
5: 1-3-4-6
2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
As Andy opined Tuesday, 7f-T at Belmont is less orderly than a route but far less chaotic than a dash. At least 7 of these 12 (1-2-4-7-8-9-11) look capable of winning, so your budget will determine how much P6 coverage you can manage. Feels like the front half of the field will produce the winner with the pace closer to honest than frenetic..
Most Likely: #11 Atlantic's Smile 5-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #7 Nonnie Connie 15-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Desert Bliss 8-1 (B) WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #2 A Prettydixie 10-1 (C) 7th
7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #7 Jean's Surprise 8-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #1 Holiday's Jewel 5-2 (A) 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Sabouli 7-2 (C) 6th
Super Add: #8 Mah Jong Maddnes 10-1 (C) WON ($26.20)
8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Favored Floral Romance has faced toughies every time out and notably comes back for first time in career without a layoff line. Not only that, but she slipped in a work since Spa start where she ran behind KMc's nice With Sugar On Top. Good, competitive race but think you can really lean on Mott miss here..
Most Likely: #6 FLORAL ROMANCE 2-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #7 Rock My Heart 6-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #8 Sweet and Lovely 4-1 (C) 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Ready Signal 15-1 (X) 3rd
9th: NY-OC/C, 3+, 6.5f (DD)
Going to roll dice and say fact that Midwest & Ness (now Perillo) couldn't get Be Bullish to the track in modest time after claim is a big negative. At the same time on the positive side, they aren't dropping him to the bottom fire sale style. Playing against and still a difficult call. Note that Modern Child wasted the whole summer trying grass. Returns to dirt finally and adds hood. Can boost exotics skimming rail..
Most Likely: #4 Jeter 4-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #6 Litigate 5-1 (B) 5th
Best Value: #2 Modern Child 30-1 (C) 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Crackerjack Jones 15-1 (C) WON ($18.80)
10th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 7f-T
Very tough finish to the challenging P6 sequence and excellent day of racing..
Most Likely: #7 Gridiron Great 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #12 Ride a Song 3-1 (A) 4th
Exotics Use: #11 St. Sincere 5-1 (B) 8th
Best Value: #4 Omos Journey 10-1 (C) 5th
Super Add: #3 Dendrite 5-1 (C) 3rd
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 1-3-6
6: 4-7-11
7: 1-7
8: 6
9: 4-6
10: 7-12
3x3x2x1x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-7
8: 6-7
9: 1-2-3-4-5-6-8-9
10: 4-7-11-12
2x2x8x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
Good luck!
Steve
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
Confounding 6 pack with 5 FTS from good outfits and Mott/Live Oak 2nd timer Naughtynaightygirl (Bernardini) that debuted upstate, took some money, and had some things go against her right from the break. Chad Brown sends $475k Rubindy (Bernardini), a half sis to SW Beautician & Bella Castani..
Best Value: #6 Rubindy 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Naughtynaughtygirl 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Sustainable 5-1 2nd
2nd: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Nice bunch and fun wagering affair. Bridgehampton SCR'D may just wire them, but if you can get a little pressure on her, perhaps returning Single Forever (8-1) can pounce off a potentially sweet inside stalking voyage..
Best Value: #3 Single Forever 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Merry Meadow 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Tanglewood Tale 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Super Add: #5 Cape Cod Carol 10-1 3rd
3rd: MCLM/$16k, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
These always have potential to turn into a staggerfest. Taylor Jagger should be fit for assignment after a summer of turf routing. An Esler/Decarlo Double? Maybe..
Best Value: #3 Taylor Jagger 5-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #7 Malibu Queen 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Flamingo Lane 3-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Lady C Note 10-1 3rd
4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Tricky set with a few having quality efforts somewhere in their running lines. Almost no one would be an utter shock..
Most Likely: #5 Brandini 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 La Java 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Isn'tshewonderful 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Sky Lassie 6-1 4th
5th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)
$177k C/O starts here..
2nd Wednesday in a row where we are confronted by a slippery carryover sequence. Those that aren't P6 players will have plenty of fun betting the skein individually. As discussed Tuesday with Andy Serling, the obvious players simply look better than the price alternatives and modest budgets may just have to live or die with them..
Most Likely: #3 Driven by Solar 5-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #1 Don't Say No 3-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Smiling Bob 7-2 (C) 3rd
Super Add: #4 Folk Singer 6-1 (C) WON ($9.20)
<$50 P5 Play:
1: 1-2-3-4-5-6
2: 3-7
3: 3
4: 1-3-4-5
5: 1-3
6x2x1x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
<$50 P4 Play:
2: 3-7
3: 3-4-7
4: 1-3-4-5
5: 1-3-4-6
2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
As Andy opined Tuesday, 7f-T at Belmont is less orderly than a route but far less chaotic than a dash. At least 7 of these 12 (1-2-4-7-8-9-11) look capable of winning, so your budget will determine how much P6 coverage you can manage. Feels like the front half of the field will produce the winner with the pace closer to honest than frenetic..
Most Likely: #11 Atlantic's Smile 5-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #7 Nonnie Connie 15-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Desert Bliss 8-1 (B) WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #2 A Prettydixie 10-1 (C) 7th
7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #7 Jean's Surprise 8-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #1 Holiday's Jewel 5-2 (A) 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Sabouli 7-2 (C) 6th
Super Add: #8 Mah Jong Maddnes 10-1 (C) WON ($26.20)
8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Favored Floral Romance has faced toughies every time out and notably comes back for first time in career without a layoff line. Not only that, but she slipped in a work since Spa start where she ran behind KMc's nice With Sugar On Top. Good, competitive race but think you can really lean on Mott miss here..
Most Likely: #6 FLORAL ROMANCE 2-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #7 Rock My Heart 6-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #8 Sweet and Lovely 4-1 (C) 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Ready Signal 15-1 (X) 3rd
9th: NY-OC/C, 3+, 6.5f (DD)
Going to roll dice and say fact that Midwest & Ness (now Perillo) couldn't get Be Bullish to the track in modest time after claim is a big negative. At the same time on the positive side, they aren't dropping him to the bottom fire sale style. Playing against and still a difficult call. Note that Modern Child wasted the whole summer trying grass. Returns to dirt finally and adds hood. Can boost exotics skimming rail..
Most Likely: #4 Jeter 4-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #6 Litigate 5-1 (B) 5th
Best Value: #2 Modern Child 30-1 (C) 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Crackerjack Jones 15-1 (C) WON ($18.80)
10th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 7f-T
Very tough finish to the challenging P6 sequence and excellent day of racing..
Most Likely: #7 Gridiron Great 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #12 Ride a Song 3-1 (A) 4th
Exotics Use: #11 St. Sincere 5-1 (B) 8th
Best Value: #4 Omos Journey 10-1 (C) 5th
Super Add: #3 Dendrite 5-1 (C) 3rd
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 1-3-6
6: 4-7-11
7: 1-7
8: 6
9: 4-6
10: 7-12
3x3x2x1x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-7
8: 6-7
9: 1-2-3-4-5-6-8-9
10: 4-7-11-12
2x2x8x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
Good luck!
Steve