9/11: Belmont Park ($137 DBL C/O)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Next to no speed signed on here. Looks like you need the 1-2-3 to assure safe passage in opening leg of P5..

Most Likely: #1 Wedding Toast 9-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #2 Galloping Giraffe 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Cue the Moon 7-5 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Exceedingly tricky maiden group routing on lawn with Chad Brown firsters bookending the group of 7. #7 Shadow Banking (Harlan's Holiday) is full brother of terrific Stormy Len. Request is a $400k Dynaformer whose immediate family is modest but whose dam Shades of Gold (Seeking the Gold) is a half sister of the very good Harbor View turf runner Fortitude (Cure the Blues) whom Allen Jerkens helmed. McGaughey-Phipps H/B Social Affair (Giant's Causeway) is a half to MSW Dancing Forever (Rahy).Albertrani's Smooth Daddy exits highly rated Spa MDN heat that produced Base Case Scenario and next out winner Bobby's Kitten..

Best Value: #5 Smooth Daddy 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Shadow Banking 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Danaus 12-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Social Affair 5-1 2nd


3rd: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Market Blaster 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Dapper Draper 7-5 5th
Exotics Use: #3 El Dreamer 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Streets of Fire 5-1 WON ($10.40)


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$137k DBL C/O starts here..

Treacherous group to start C/O sequence..

Most Likely: #1 Star Grazing 3-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #13 Lucky Nancy E. 10-1 (A) 9th
Next Best: #2 Easy Living 4-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Lil' Zilla 8-1 (B) 8th

"C" Considerations (In order of preference): #6 Lehigh Alum 15-1; #9 Maybry's Fortune 5-1; #3 Manner of Speaking 8-1


5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Precipitous drop for He's So Chic who couldn't be prepared for a Saratoga start at all. Has been able to string 3 works together at least readying for this spot but clearly there's been issues. As discussed with Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, appears one of the all-or-nothing propositions for carryover players..

Most Likely: #3 He's So Chic 7-5 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #6 Chasing Moonlight 6-1 (B) WON ($11.80)
Best Value: #4 Buckeye Heart 8-1 (C) 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Sensational Slam 15-1 (C) 6th


<$50 P4 Play:

1: 1-2-3
2: 5-7
3: 5-8
4: 1-2-8-13
5: 3-6

3x2x2x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-7
3: 5-8
4: 1-2-8-13
5: 2-3-4-6

3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Quandary event with 2nd timers Barafg (KMc) and Delany Road (Clement) most eligible for improvement to laurels. Firsters Addison Run (Larry Murray up from Laurel), My Place (Hot-working Elusive Quality from Mott) and Berkette (Wide drawn for Pletcher-Johnny V) all merit consideration..

Most Likely: #2 Baragh 7-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #8 Delany Road (B) 7th

"C" Considerations (In order of preference): #1 Addison Run 12-1 4th; #7 My Place 3-1 WON ($7.00); #10 Berkette 6th; #8 Ever Awesome 12-1 8th


7th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Another spot where many may seek to rely on narrow approach with So Royal the focus, but there are several here well within range of the favorite..

Most Likely: #2 So Royal 2-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #9 Love That Kelly 12-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #4 Princess Adelyn 6-1 (B) WON ($21.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Maintain the Magic 8-1 (C) 7th


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #2 Border Song 6-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #4 Hothersal 2-1 (A) 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Film Shot 3-1 (C) 7th
Super Add: #3 Razorbill 4-1 (C) 4th


9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Wow.. Some end to terrific day of challenging puzzles. Perhaps 2 could be eliminated here in first pass..

Best Value: #2 Papa Freud 8-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #10 Ale 7-2 (A) WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Yo Blue 5-2 (B) 4th

"C" Considerations (In order of preference): #8 Flowing Mane 15-1; #5 Logan Street 5-1 2nd; #4 Trainingforsuccess 12-1 3rd


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-10
5: 3-6
6: 2
7: 2 4-9
8: 2-4
9: 1-2-10

2x2x1x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-7-8
7: 2 4-9
8: 2-4
9: 1-2-4-5-8-10

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S (http://www.nyra.com/belmont/changes/)

[pointman]

Steve, FYI, in the 4th, Lucky Nancy E is the 13, not the 10.

Good Luck!

[Kasept]

Steve, FYI, in the 4th, Lucky Nancy E is the 13, not the 10.

Good Luck!

Fixed.. Thx Nick. BOL!

[NoLuvForPletch]

How in the world was this hit? 3 1st time starters and of the horses that have run, top 2 choices not winning? I thought 4 sure it was a 3 day carry after race 7 when 3 of the first 4 legs were won by 1sters that weren't bet

[blackthroatedwind]

So much for you posting multiple tickets Steve.

[dellinger63]

So much for you posting multiple tickets Steve.

He did put ABC's up....

[ADJMK]

So much for you posting multiple tickets Steve.

Would it have mattered if he posted 100 tickets? Had as much a chance of hitting with a random generator.

[Kasept]

Would it have mattered if he posted 100 tickets? Had as much a chance of hitting with a random generator.

Andy's referring to our conversation on radio Tuesday about Crist-style multiple tix approach and his assertion that it's so much harder to succeed by not utilizing it. I play multiple tix myself and would like to employ the method in print but almost always am without ample time to lay them out and then make all the changes as needed post-SCR's. It would be especially difficult -- nee impossible -- during Saratoga. Besides being on the air 9a-12p, there's the matter of writing up selections, securing guests and prepping ATR daily 5:00-8:45a. The selections are my view of things and I put out the A-B-C tabs when I can hoping that people can then build their own tickets as appropriate according to their own decisions and budgets. The same is true of all the multi-race plays. They're a foundation that people can add to or subtract from.

[blackthroatedwind]

Would it have mattered if he posted 100 tickets? Had as much a chance of hitting with a random generator.

Please tell me you are taking a shot at me and not Byk.

If not, please explain to us how you would have hit this Pick-6 for even $100K. Even redboarding I want to see that play.

[ADJMK]

Please tell me you are taking a shot at me and not Byk.

If not, please explain to us how you would have hit this Pick-6 for even $100K. Even redboarding I want to see that play.

Was saying it was impossible to hit unless that was your phone number and it didn't matter how many A,B,C tickets he posted

[blackthroatedwind]

Was saying it was impossible to hit unless that was your phone number and it didn't matter how many A,B,C tickets he posted

It was very hard to hit. I agree. That being said, I couldn't possibly be happier for the person that did hit it.

[freddymo]

Andy's referring to our conversation on radio Tuesday about Crist-style multiple tix approach and his assertion that it's so much harder to succeed by not utilizing it. I play multiple tix myself and would like to employ the method in print but almost always am without ample time to lay them out and then make all the changes as needed post-SCR's. It would be especially difficult -- nee impossible -- during Saratoga. Besides being on the air 9a-12p, there's the matter of writing up selections, securing guests and prepping ATR daily 5:00-8:45a. The selections are my view of things and I put out the A-B-C tabs when I can hoping that people can then build their own tickets as appropriate according to their own decisions and budgets. The same is true of all the multi-race plays. They're a foundation that people can add to or subtract from.

Have you had the opportunity to view Crist's daily blogs on DRF and the grid he uses.. I am sure that would suffice.